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Everything posted by KingOfTheMountains

  1. It and the GFS actually agree on that setup of a deep diving ULL. Could be something, who knows. Time will tell lol
  2. GSP increased totals some. My forecast went from less than an inch to 1 to 3 now.
  3. At the base of Tiger Mountain south of Clayton in Rabun County.
  4. Wasn't paying attention to what I thought was rain over the last 30 minutes. Thick layer of sleet on the porch actually. Temps and dew points falling a lot faster now with the heavier precip.
  5. What say you everybody, first snow report in GA? Or is that Tennessee lol? Either way, there's a snow report on lookout mountain.
  6. Idk, tough to say. Mping reports there are all rain but there aren't many. Could be some sleet, but based on modeling our best rates were supposed to be from around noon to 3 or 4 so it matches up well.
  7. Yeah you should be sitting perfect for when the better rates get here.
  8. Well some of us do at least. Lucky peeps at elevation like Preston won't have to worry about it cause there isn't a 925 there lol. But it seems to be snowing in the 1 degree region in NC with a report of light snow in Franklin now also. I'd guess that the snow is pulling the cold air down from 850 and cooling the 925s.
  9. 850's are starting to fall nicely. Was nearly plus 2 at the last update. Dewpoint starting to fall again, need some heavier rates up here to get the wet bulbing to work.
  10. Yeah I think GSP mentioned in their discussion earlier this morning that the colder air would be in no hurry to move until the low level flow ramps up in response to the pressure falls from the deepening low.
  11. Very nice! Should get the flip soon. Seen a report from Cashiers just up the road from you that it is snowing.
  12. Looks like roughly what NWS forecast is for there. It's on the warm side, but it was supposed to be.
  13. What's your temp and dew point at up there? I'm running several hours ahead of NWS forecast on dew points and temps are roughly on schedule.
  14. They shouldn't be an issue but of course be prepared if somehow this thing busts in the good way. If it switches to heavy wet snow roads may get slushy just from the rates but it should be warm enough to avoid any real problems. Tomorrow night/Friday morning is a different story though with it getting into the low 20s refreeze and black ice will be a major concern.
  15. That forecast should be mostly right. Could be off by a degree or two here or there, but if so they will adjust it. The temp will fall steadily all day, the high will be at midnight.
  16. I would say that for now it was probably just to be cautious for Habersham, because the gradient will be so tight it could be nothing or could easily be something more impactful. As for Rabun I think because of the elevation an advisory level nuisance event is fairly likely at the minimum.
  17. They already canceled school for up here tomorrow at 3:30 There appears to be a split forming among short term guidance with regards to temps in the 800-900 mbar layer. Differences as big as 5 degrees between the HRRR/WRF/RAP and the NAM/RGEM. Looks like it will come down to now-casting.
  18. Honestly the 18z HRRR is giving me a little hope. It is much better at 850 and the warm nose is much less pronounced. It's still doing what the HRRR does and is warming the lower levels despite of it not really being physically possible without a stout warm surface wind, which we will not have. Heavy precip falling through - 2/-3 850s will not let the 925s and surface suddenly warm during the storm, it tried to show the same thing just last weekend. Also if you look at just its simulated reflectivity, not its guesses at ptype with lower level temps we know are wrong, it looks a bit different. That bright banding is usually evidence of melting snow flakes and indicates the rain/snow line. My expectations are very low, but I still think there is fairly high bust potential in both directions.
  19. Yep, as bad as it has been the last few days, I'm now cheering for the Euro lol
  20. So I decided to pour over some soundings to try and find what the main difference is on the snowier models vs the least snowy ones. Best I could tell the snowiest models (NAM 12k, Euro) work more dry air into the low/mid levels prior to the precip arriving leading to better wet bulbing conditions. Whereas on the others we remain near saturation therefore no room to bring down the temps in the low/mid levels.
  21. Of course I'm still open to this thing busting in the good way if it wants to lol.
  22. Outside of the higher elevations I'd expect a messy slushy wintry mix for a big portion of the day, maybe some light accumulating snow in the late afternoon early evening.
  23. Agreed. At some point in the day flakes may fly. Won't amount to much if anything though.
  24. I would definitely agree with that as far as the accumulations probably being confined to the mountains. I would just caution use of the HRRR for anything but reflectivity based on how bad it was for the last snow. Even at just 4-5 hours out last time it was basically completely ignoring evaporative cooling, flipping parts of the mtn counties over to rain. As we know that wasn't even close to right, as snow made it all the way down to Athens. I think the lower elevations of the northern most mountain counties are probably going to have just a messy wintry mix for most of the day not amounting to much until the very end. And of course roads will be very icy Thursday night and Friday morning. It was a close call and fun to track. Here's to March bringing the big one lol.
  25. My confidence is pretty high that you will at the very least see snow falling. Accumulations are very low confidence for basically all of N GA. They are definitely possible, and some will likely see some, but the gradient is so tight it's too close to call with any real confidence.
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