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KingOfTheMountains

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Posts posted by KingOfTheMountains


  1. 2 minutes ago, Preston said:

    Do we have bright banding going on from sleet in North Alabama or is that legit heavy precip? 

    Idk, tough to say. Mping reports there are all rain but there aren't many. Could be some sleet, but based on modeling our best rates were supposed to be from around noon to 3 or 4 so it matches up well. 

    • Like 1

  2. 4 minutes ago, Preston said:

    We have switched to mostly sleet in Sky Valley. The temperature is 33.1 and the dewpoint is 30.5, it has been a slow transition but I'm thinking it will likely change over to snow soon. I saw the report from Highlands, i'm attaching the link to the Highlands Chamber of Commerce downtown webcam. It's a good source in these kind of events. 

    https://www.highlandschamber.org/about/webcams/

    Yeah you should be sitting perfect for when the better rates get here. 

    • Like 1

  3. Just now, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Need a little help with 925 mb temps though. 🙂

    Snap346063900.thumb.png.913727c7a0290fa49edf270615fb7a87.png

    Well some of us do at least. Lucky peeps at elevation like Preston won't have to worry about it cause there isn't a 925 there lol. But it seems to be snowing in the 1 degree region in NC with a report of light snow in Franklin now also. I'd guess that the snow is pulling the cold air down from 850 and cooling the 925s.

    • Like 2

  4. 15 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    I just noticed that the Gulf low is already 1018 mb. The HRRR had a 1016 around 5 PM today... so I'm thinking the low i stronger than anticipated. The concern for us could work both ways. Stronger lows generally have stronger warm air advection which would work to reduce the chances for frozen precip. On the other hand, and stronger low can also can also help to reinforce the wedge like conditions that are trying to form. Interesting battle and one we need to watch carefully. 

    Snap346063898.thumb.png.7297166b2ef8b47530dbc0449f2df5ba.png

    hrrr-conus-se-mslp-2236000.thumb.png.c7a8e1600c6a151a0700a20d14a4d9e1.png

    Yeah I think GSP mentioned in their discussion earlier this morning that the colder air would be in no hurry to move until the low level flow ramps up in response to the pressure falls from the deepening low. 

    • Like 1

  5. 53 minutes ago, Preston said:

    All rain at the moment but we are down to 34.2 with a dewpoint of 29 in Sky Valley. 

    Very nice! Should get the flip soon. Seen a report from Cashiers just up the road from you that it is snowing. 

    • Like 3

  6. 15 minutes ago, Preston said:

    Maybe a surprise dusting in places but I just don’t see a lot of accumulation in Georgia outside of the mountains. It’s just going to be too warm. We are trending a degree or two above average and I’m worried here at my location which is about as high as you can get in North GA in elevation. 

    What's your temp and dew point at up there? I'm running several hours ahead of NWS forecast on dew points and temps are roughly on schedule. 

    • Like 1

  7. 25 minutes ago, JackFrost said:

    How about the roads tomorrow? I live in Pickens a ways off the highway and I’d like to not wind up in a ditch on my ride home tomorrow 😂

    They shouldn't be an issue but of course be prepared if somehow this thing busts in the good way. If it switches to heavy wet snow roads may get slushy just from the rates but it should be warm enough to avoid any real problems. Tomorrow night/Friday morning is a different story though with it getting into the low 20s refreeze and black ice will be a major concern. 

    • Like 1

  8. 47 minutes ago, Tori said:

    Can someone post a map showing how cold it’s going to get tomorrow? I’m curious because I’ve seen conflicting temps on different apps and sites. On the bright side NWS is putting Bremen as seeing a mix. 😬  We’ll see how it goes!

    D8F9DC56-98BD-4F9F-8853-892D324EA90A.png

    That forecast should be mostly right. Could be off by a degree or two here or there, but if so they will adjust it. The temp will fall steadily all day, the high will be at midnight. 

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

  9. 5 minutes ago, Bcshart311 said:

    I live in Habersham, but work in Franklin NC. I drive early in the morning so I’m watching this extremely close. I do have a question for you. I’m a huge snow lover, so would love to see it. However, I’m just not feeling it this time. In your opinion, the advisory that has been issued for Habersham and Rabun, do you feel that’s it’s just more to be on the side of caution, since the last storm overproduced? I know that more than likely this will come down to the minute it arrives, I just don’t have much confidence in it.

    I would say that for now it was probably just to be cautious for Habersham, because the gradient will be so tight it could be nothing or could easily be something more impactful. As for Rabun I think because of the elevation an advisory level nuisance event is fairly likely at the minimum. 

    • Like 2

  10. They already canceled school for up here tomorrow at 3:30

    There appears to be a split forming among short term guidance with regards to temps in the 800-900 mbar layer. Differences as big as 5 degrees between the HRRR/WRF/RAP and the NAM/RGEM. Looks like it will come down to now-casting. 

    • Like 2

  11. Honestly the 18z HRRR is giving me a little hope. It is much better at 850 and the warm nose is much less pronounced. It's still doing what the HRRR does and is warming the lower levels despite of it not really being physically possible without a stout warm surface wind, which we will not have. Heavy precip falling through - 2/-3 850s will not let the 925s and surface suddenly warm during the storm, it tried to show the same thing just last weekend. Also if you look at just its simulated reflectivity, not its guesses at ptype with lower level temps we know are wrong, it looks a bit different. floop-hrrr-2020021918.ref1km.us_ma.gif.801bbb4ded59476a37c2a57aad548bba.gif

    That bright banding is usually evidence of melting snow flakes and indicates the rain/snow line. My expectations are very low, but I still think there is fairly high bust potential in both directions. 

    • Like 1

  12. So I decided to pour over some soundings to try and find what the main difference is on the snowier models vs the least snowy ones. Best I could tell the snowiest models (NAM 12k, Euro) work more dry air into the low/mid levels prior to the precip arriving leading to better wet bulbing conditions. Whereas on the others we remain near saturation therefore no room to bring down the temps in the low/mid levels. 

    • Like 1

  13. 1 minute ago, Chase said:

    Should I expect to see much of anything here in Towns? Some models show a few inches, some show nothing but a cold rain/snow mix all day. Even if it does snow, it seems as if the temps aren't going to go below freezing. 

    Outside of the higher elevations I'd expect a messy slushy wintry mix for a big portion of the day, maybe some light accumulating snow in the late afternoon early evening. 

    • Like 1

  14. 3 hours ago, Preston said:

    HRRR is looking like primarily a mountain event and very marginal temperatures there. An inch or higher is unfortunately probably going to be reserved for areas over 2,500-3,000'.

    I would definitely agree with that as far as the accumulations probably being confined to the mountains. I would just caution use of the HRRR for anything but reflectivity based on how bad it was for the last snow. Even at just 4-5 hours out last time it was basically completely ignoring evaporative cooling, flipping parts of the mtn counties over to rain. As we know that wasn't even close to right, as snow made it all the way down to Athens. 

    I think the lower elevations of the northern most mountain counties are probably going to have just a messy wintry mix for most of the day not amounting to much until the very end. And of course roads will be very icy Thursday night and Friday morning. It was a close call and fun to track. Here's to March bringing the big one lol. 

    • Like 2

  15. 19 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

    Confidence higher for lumpkin?

    My confidence is pretty high that you will at the very least see snow falling. Accumulations are very low confidence for basically all of N GA. They are definitely possible, and some will likely see some, but the gradient is so tight it's too close to call with any real confidence. 

    • Like 1

  16. Great post by Robert at Wxsouth. Notice that the red bullseye doesn't necessarily mean snow accumulations, he thinks there's a high likelihood of a lot of heavy wet snow at least falling over the northern tier of counties. Some places probably will see some accumulation, but the forecast is almost too close to call on exact amounts because of the gradient between rain and snow being so tight. 

     


  17. GFS again looks pretty good. Still shows a changeover from rain/mix to all snow sometime between 10 and 1. I'd guess in the 11 o'clock hour for the Northern tier of counties, 12 o'clock hour for the 2nd row. Heavy snow from then through the late afternoon hours before tapering off. Surface may be around 33-35 but it'll still pile up in the yard at least at that temp.

    Still some concerns with the mid level warm nose from hi-res modeling causing mixing issues later in the storm also, but I'm not sure we even can accurately forecast its intensity and location. Warm nose impact could end up being more of a now-casting thing. 

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