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KingOfTheMountains

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Posts posted by KingOfTheMountains


  1. 6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Although once we dive into this period, I believe it will flip to more snow, less rain. I know that's not normally what happens here, but this isn't going to be a normal period.

    Agreed. I was strictly speaking of the next week and a half or so when that track to our NW is more likely than not.

    • Like 1

  2. 16 minutes ago, SNOW said:

    Today’s guidance = rain ! 🤮

    You can’t look at the surface output on operational models right now. Anything past 4-5 days is probably 100% wrong. There is way too much energy flying around for models to be any good past that. The smallest of details will make the difference between what we saw at 18z yesterday and what you saw today. And those details are just too fine to be predicted with any skill in such a hectic environment.

    But everyone needs to understand, we are going to see a lot of rain storms, expecting otherwise is a fairytale. Try not to let that get you down. Let’s just do a hypothetical where we say that over the next 2 weeks we see 8 storms. A realistic expectation would then be that we would see 6 all rain, 1 mixed event, and one nice snow. That is winter in the South. Is more than that possible? Certainly, but it is never likely. Normal chances of snow in the south are darn near zero. The pattern we’re going into gives us a much better chance than normal, but the chances are still low until you look outside and it’s snowing. 

    • Like 1

  3. 29 minutes ago, SouthSideDahlonega said:

    so fun looking at the maps, and then seeing what you and others post.  I suspect many of us are just seeing blobs, whereas folks like you are seeing a much more granular picture.  like King said i'm starting to take notice of the high position and strength rather than just looking at the storms. Try to look at the 500 mb vorticity too, if I'm saying that right.   But I have a question. what is the difference between GEFS and GEPS. I assume the E stands for ensemble. 

    Yes the vorticity map is great for being able to see the individual pieces of energy. The reasons for the timing differences I noted earlier are actually better seen on the vorticity, but I didn't want to post that map cause it's a lot harder to understand. But basically yesterdays 18z had better stream separation allowing our piece of energy to dig deeper in the SW US which slowed down the timing and allowed the high to move over top of the storm instead of behind it. And the GEPS is the canadian model ensemble.

    • Like 4

  4. That’s the one thing I noticed last night, and I’m glad you did as well, that despite the GFS losing the storm it actually gained some support on the ensembles. These Great Lakes cutters are going to be the norm for a little while, but all it takes is good timing with a well placed high and we get hit. And with so many pieces flying around, trying to place any of them past 4-5 days is a crapshoot. Yesterday’s 18z GFS showed more separation between the storm waves, slowing the midweek storm down by over a day, to the 24th-25th which made it miss the weakness between the two highs and was forced to stay south. And looking at the ensemble members nearly all of them that show significant snow show it first around the 25th. So I think we know the timing we need, it’s just whether or not we get it. Notice the date at the top of the 2 images and the placement of the high pressures.D05900AB-B887-4240-A50C-B16CA40555C5.thumb.png.e45041318c77e29a0fdad24c0fb46a8f.pngDF714E35-5BDE-4DD4-8AD1-D29FFC09DCA8.thumb.png.d92ea961cb87699824a2551bd025fe0e.png

    • Like 2

  5. 13 minutes ago, Athens said:

    It's always nice to hear others perspectives. It's a shame I wasn't around to witness 93 for myself but from what I gathered it didn't affect Athens too much. I can only hope to experience such a storm sometime in my lifetime. 

    For myself I can’t remember much about it as I was too young. But I’ve studied that storm quite a bit, and of course heard the stories from others and it truly was a Storm of The Century. As much as I would love to experience it today, most of the stories from people up here in the mountains during that storm paint a pretty terrifying picture. Storms like that often come with deadly consequences and 93 was no exception. Knowing we can get nearly as much snow in a much gentler storm, I’ll take the latter these days lol


  6. 2 minutes ago, Athens said:

    Giving 93 a run for it's money? 

    It’s way too early for me to say something like that. The words “Blizzard of 93” are like catnip to southerners lol. As far as just snowfall amounts some places could absolutely see as much. (Again, ONLY IF THAT EXACT LOOK FROM GFS FANTASYLAND SOMEHOW COMES TRUE.) Some places north of the metro got more than 93 just last December though, and many places in N GA have had as much or more over the years. What made 93 special was the dynamics. And if I’m being honest, I’d be surprised to ever see a storm like that again. 

    • Like 2

  7. 8 minutes ago, Athens said:

    That would be a mess of a storm if it verifies. 😅

    a900c784-033d-476a-b92e-8aca39f6a050.jpg

    It’s a complete fantasy so it doesn’t really matter, but going through some soundings around the state during that storm and the mixing looks overdone. The warm nose it is showing is so shallow and weak, and the surface is so cold I’d say most would be snow the entire storm with maybe a little sleet if that look were somehow to verify. In fact I’m excited about the possibility for something we definitely don’t see down here much, and that’s high ratio snow. That showed a lot of N GA spending the majority of the storm in the teens to mid 20s. That would be ratios potentially as high as 20 to 1 at times.

    • Like 4

  8. Yep, without perfect timing or maybe strong CAD for some, that pesky Atlantic ridge overlapping the coast is going to ruin any chances of snow at least until past the 25th unless it’s modeled wrong. Frustrating.... cause the storm track is lowering, but the storms are just gonna climb right over head instead of off the east coast. Louisiana May see snow before we do. The cold however is coming either way, and will be very cold.

    • Like 1

  9. So am I wrong in thinking this is still step down processes to the full pattern flip even after the 20th and the full flip and lock in looks after 25th-28th? First step coming after the 20th with western ridge building to deliver cold into the lower 48, however there is no blocking at that point so its rather transient and is gone after a couple days. The subsequent steps is each wave helping to push the Western Atlantic Ridge up into the Greenland region to finally allow the pattern to lock in. I suspect the Western Atlantic Ridge is also the culprit for the storms consistently cutting NE so quick early in the period, because it's forcing the troughs to be centered just too far west.

    GEFS is a good example of the evolution I'm alluding to. Notice the 20th system starts to force the ridging up towards Greenland, but the ridge does recover some after it. Then the next waves roll in and fully establishes the Greenland block and locks the pattern in for the rest of the run.gfs-ens_z500aNorm_namer_fh138-312.thumb.gif.0cb9e14db7db88a83081d5bf334fa08e.gif

    • Like 2

  10. 11 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Those are the ensembles, so smoothed out. If you look at individual ensemble members, you'll see the amounts vary widely.

    Again, I use Blairsville as the example.

    KDZJ_2019011312_gefs_snow_384-13.thumb.png.b06cc7bf9fd5a7b9c6052b072484b7cc.png

     

    So right now, I'm really liking our chances to see some snow.

    Looks like those have went up just from the last time you posted the Blairsville one.


  11. 43 minutes ago, Shannon said:

    Well initially this is a lot of snow depicted with a lot of moving parts that are no where near certain yet. This map will change a lot over time. However, developing a snow pack north of us is important. It will act a a refrigerator and allow cold air to come south and struggle to modify which helps us with a active southern jet stream right now. 

    This could be a very important factor that you’re mentioning. Even if we miss on the 20th storm, which I think is possible, if it can lay down a heavy snowpack across the upper Ohio valley and North East then it will help us all the more in storms that follow. If that’s the case and there’s a 1040+ high in the NE on the 2nd storm pumping air directly off that snow pack it could give us that degree or two we always seem to need.

    • Like 2

  12. 41 minutes ago, Wendy4 said:

    Thoughts?

    IMG_20190113_170251.jpg

    So this is the GEFS ensemble mean. So it takes the operational, control, and 20 other members and changes the initial conditions in each one and lets them run. This is showing the average snowfall of all of those together between now and the 28th. It at least shows that the models are hinting at snow in the next 2 weeks. But to get a better feel, you’d need to see each individual member and see whether there’s good agreement in the ensembles or if just 1 or 2 are skewing the data. As we go forward if the ensembles zero in on a particular event, then you’ll see these means go up. At this lead time 2 inch plus means in all of North GA is a wonderful sight to see.

    • Like 1

  13. 14 minutes ago, Wendy4 said:

    The GFS precipitation model is showing snow on the 20th and again around the 24th....with rain in between. I can't wait! Even if just 1 of them come true, I'll be happy!

    Neither of those are likely to work out as modeled, but things are guaranteed to change as the models are going to be all over the place. In fact how the 2nd storm is modeled is basically impossible with a nearly 1050 high in the North East and the low running right into it. I’m as confident as can be in the 2nd storm at this lead time. Really think we’ve got a shot with that one based on timing after the initial cold push alone.

    • Like 3

  14. 3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Here's the GFS ensemble mean pressure anomalies 7 days from now. Notice the higher pressures over Australia. 

    gefs_z500a_shwpac_29-13.thumb.png.855ce2bf530edbd0f30804e0726b4cde.png

     

    Now look at where the high pressures are located in this image... Phase 8. So the GFS MJO and the GFS ensembles aren't agreeing. 

    Snap346062255.thumb.jpg.031689199d6ad95075d764ae43d9c0cc.jpg

     

     

    Nice! I know that here in the south that even in a favorable pattern, there are more ways to go wrong than right. So I’m just looking for any flies in the ointment and then subsequently trying to smash them lol

    • Like 2

  15. 6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    The MJO forecast hasn't been very skillful lately, and Bastardi made a blog post about that yesterday. If you go to the page that he uses (which I can happily say is my page! http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mjo_phase_forecast.php ) , scroll down and you'll find this image. This is "generally" what happens when the MJO goes into those phase during DJF. However, when there is a Modoki El Nino, it changes a little bit. But we normally want to see a 8-1-2 rotation in the winter. The good part about what you see in the "All Model Mean" (image Michael posted) is that it is in a null state with little to no influence. 

    Snap346062253.thumb.jpg.7d06de1867fa62c0778fdce03657cbe3.jpg

    Okay, I think we have so much else going our way it doesn’t matter much but got curious nonetheless. All I knew really was that we tend to want phase 8, 1, or 2. I wasn’t sure the significance, if any, of it moving into the circle, or the magnitude when it is in a particular phase. For instance if it re-emerging into phase 4-5 but weak is a lot different from the high magnitude phase 5 we saw in December. 

    • Like 1
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