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KingOfTheMountains

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Posts posted by KingOfTheMountains


  1. 3 minutes ago, Athens said:

    True but it's even more so disappointing when we waste the (rare) cold we do get. (While the north can get snow above freezing.) Last year was La Nina and it was pretty much suppression city, with this year being El Nino I do wonder if that helps us any? Also is it wrong for me to want more than just a couple inches? ... I can't remember the last time we had 5"+. 😅

    For me personally I’d rather see suppression and know that I’ve got a chance as the pattern relaxes, than watch an endless stream of cutters. But, out to the 22nd the Euro is not nearly as gung-ho on that kind of cold so it’s still a wait and see scenario. 

    And having spent many winters in Athens, I am convinced that area, and to its east towards SC, is one of the hardest spots to get snow. I can still remember it feeling like torture being down in Athens with cold rain, while my family sent me pictures of all the snow back home in the mountains. And the way I see it, if we’re going to get snow we might as well make it worth our while and get all that we can take. Cause who knows when the next time we see it will be. Might as well be memorable.

    • Like 4

  2. 4 minutes ago, Athens said:

    Yeah too much cold could be a bad thing. Our biggest snows have come from marginal cold. Hopefully time is in our favor. 

    Around here I think we’ve just got to take the cold however we can get it and just hope the rest will work out. I think the fact that this will likely be a prolonged cold snap is in our favor. Normally we’d be trying to thread the needle and try to score a storm right on time with a few days cold spell. But we’re finally going to see some real blocking to help hold this cold around a while. And every single time these troughs start to lift and help relax the cold just enough, we’re going to have a shot at a winter storm.

    • Like 3

  3. Tonights FV3 is a good example of what I was talking about earlier. I think the chances of us scoring a winter storm directly underneath the coldest air is next to none with the magnitude of these arctic outbreaks. However even after the pattern flips, there’s going to be some waxing and waning of the coldest air. So in those breaks where one cold air mass is moving out and the other is spilling in behind to replace it, those will be our key chances in my opinion.

    The FV3 shows that here. In the first image the trough is broad and deep over the eastern US and we are in brutally cold arctic air. But notice all the moisture is way down in the gulf.

    37204807-A7CF-4551-B2BB-C354B5C6C196.thumb.png.c67a5ed9aa2974e752d3b79273ae79b9.png

    But, in the 2nd image, as that trough relaxes and another is loading up to take its place a shortwave rides in on the leading edge of the next cold blast. And this is the result. The trough falls in behind it and we go brutally cold again. Wash, rinse, and repeat until something comes along and changes that pattern. 

    EDC7519B-3310-4984-BC77-7AF80D2DADF4.thumb.png.bb2af3f03fcf45267d21903729425c76.png

    • Like 3

  4. 13 minutes ago, Athens said:

    FV3 has been brutally cold. I hope it's just being overdramatic as I got a few tender plants I rather not lose. 

    fv3p_T2m_eus_61.png

    fv3p_T2m_eus_48-1.png

    It is probably a little over done, but I would expect cold similar to the large outbreaks we had several times earlier this decade. Widespread teens and single digits across N GA on the coldest nights is definitely likely. 

    • Like 2

  5. 2 hours ago, Shannon said:

    Looking ahead in fantasy land the models are extremely cold. Hopefully we don’t find ourselves in suppression city. 

    Biggest reason I was hoping to cash in on that 20th storm, but seems highly unlikely at this point. Getting the storms on the leading edge or back edge of a pattern flip is much easier. A lot of times when the hammer drops the way some models are showing, the east turns bone dry until it starts to relax a bit. But still, potentially weeks of cold coming and all it takes is one storm to make or break, so odds are still higher than they would be otherwise.

    • Like 1

  6. 25 minutes ago, rwarren5 said:

    I tried to go back up to Hogpen around 4:30, but they were closing it due to ice as I was headed up the mountain. My Jeep read 32 before I turned around, willing to bet it was close to 30 at the top. 

    Yeah just read a report from WSB a while ago that GDOT was closing the hwy there due to ice accumulation. Higher elevations probably getting iced up good this evening.

    • Like 1

  7. Definitely not getting much of a push from the wedge here in central Rabun County though. Not that we normally do anyway, CAD’s tend to bend around us at the bottom of the mountain chain. Dewpoints are rising but the temp isn’t really dropping. Have to think most of the county outside of elevation won’t see anything freezing, without any reinforcement of the dry air.


  8. 5 minutes ago, RickyD said:

    Here is a sounding from my area on the 23rd from the GFS....  It has the 540 line( freezing ) all the way to the coast.   It has it 22 degrees with a dew point of 15.  That would be a recipe for some solid snow for all the area

    index.png

    If the Atlantic ridge would flatten just a bit, and stop it from climbing so steep, the majority of the state would see good snow. Want to see it track west to east along the gulf for at least a little bit to give the cold time to bleed in before it, cause even though it’s a beautiful look, it’s still a cold chasing moisture thing and we all know how those usually work out around here.

    • Like 2

  9. 6 minutes ago, TheSimpleMan said:

    Novice question: At my location my current temp is 37, with a dewpoint of 20. From watching you guys talk, 20 seems fairly low. Does that set us up for a good bit of evaporative cooling when the rain moves in?

    Windy and dreary looking in Jasper!

    Yes, I would think that would get you to right around the freezing mark maybe just above it. Briefly of course, as temps will go up with warm flow as main event moves in. Of course timing of the better precip coverage matters too, cause those numbers can change between now and then.

    • Like 2

  10. 9 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    I don’t appreciate my thoughts/statements being called elementary..... so therefore this will be my last comment for awhile 

    I certainly didn’t say that... You’re gonna do what you feel is best for you, but know that isn’t what I or anyone else wants you to do. 

    • Like 1

  11. 1 hour ago, LoveSnow said:

    Fair enough..... I’ll just not comment much 

    I’ll chime in here. We’re not asking you not to be a part of this community and not post. It’s just from some of our standpoints, when we’re posting about things that some of us have spent a lot of our lives learning and training to be able to do this, it is frustrating to just be met with unreasoned skepticism.

    There are plenty of things to be skeptical about in the long range, believe me I’ve posted about them, and the snow lover in me worries about them. But one of those things is not the pattern flip, it is happening. Like I’ve said that could easily amount to nothing more than some colder temperatures for all of us, but that remains to be seen. But there is no evidentiary reason at all not to buy the pattern flip. Yes you will have some warm temperatures next week but that is before the flip anyway. You will likely see the occasional warm day even after the flip. You live south of Atlanta and your normal high is probably in the mid 50’s this time of year anyway.

    No one is asking you to be less engaged. The more people that are engaged in weather and science the better in my opinion, especially if it can help people get a grasp on just how hard this stuff is to predict. I think we’re just asking for a bit less bashing of the stuff we post, even if you don’t mean it to come off that way, that is how it’s being received. It’s just the tone in which you respond sometimes. By all means, please voice your questions and concerns with the long range forecast, you may spot something I don’t. I work for the federal government so I’ve got all the time in the world to answer anything right now lol. But please don’t become less involved in the forum on our part. 

    • Like 2

  12. 11 minutes ago, SouthSideDahlonega said:

    i would love to see a widespread storm hit here like that, where it just went west to east across Miss, Alabama, and Georgia.  half the state covered in snow, no doubt that it was going to happen. 

    We had a good run there for a few years at the beginning of this decade but since we’ve had a lot more messy hard to track events. 


  13. 2 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    Not necessarily- I’ve gotten good snows before 

    You’ll definitely get them from time to time, it’s just that conditions have to be even more perfect for you than in the places he mentioned. In fact what’s best for your area may be for my area to be left high and dry lol. 


  14. Just now, LoveSnow said:

    Let’s get it under 100 hours and then we can talk 

    Lol sure. Under 100 we should be talking about individual storms. Under 200 is pretty solid for large scale things. And this is no longer just fantasy model chatter either. There are actual moving pieces in the atmosphere right now, that we can track in real time, that are going to be our pattern flip.

    • Like 1

  15. 13 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    I never said you were being mean..... sometimes people aren’t gonna agree with things people say 

    Fair enough. The pattern flip is inside 200 hours now, it is going to happen. Whether that means snow or not no one can say but chances are better than usual. The timing is set roughly, anything that happens between now and then is simply a means to an end. The wait is frustrating I understand. 

    • Like 2
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