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KingOfTheMountains

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Posts posted by KingOfTheMountains


  1. 1 hour ago, LoveSnow said:

    All these people screaming cold is coming yet I got near 60 degrees later next week in my area

    This being your constant response to people showing the upcoming pattern is getting a bit old lol. Since at least the beginning of this week everyone has said that once the transition started(it has) we would be turbulent for a while. As in temps would be up and down til around the 19th-20th when the transition completes. 

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  2. Just keeps looking better and better. Although I’m more confident about that 24th-26th period, the 20th is still very interesting. Maybe we can get really lucky and score a 1-2 punch lol. That PV piece trending further and further south on EPS would lead to more suppression of the 20th system which is what we need to get that track south. 

    • Like 6

  3. That FV3 look reminds me of the January 2011 storm where the arctic air just crashed on the backside of the storm. I still remember it well, had around a foot of snow on the ground and didn’t get out of the 20’s for a few days after, nights were near 0. Took weeks to melt and kids missed 2 straight weeks of school from one snow lol.

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  4. Honestly if we don’t score between Jan 20th and the first week or two of February I’ll be absolutely shocked. That height pattern with split flow and an active southern jet. Haven’t seen anything like that modeled for that long of a period since those brutal cold and snowy winters from 2011-2013/14ish time period.

    • Like 2

  5. 25 minutes ago, Athens said:

    Mother of god anybody saw the latest FV3?! It's pure model porn lol. So nice I had to save it for the archives. If only we could see such a system.

    fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_fh318-348.gif

    Whoo, one can hope right?!? Been a long time even up here since we’ve seen a storm start snow and stay snow all the way to the end. Probably all the way back to the 2012-2013 time frame. Lately we always seem to get mixing issues as the low passes to the South robbing us of what would’ve been some impressive snows.

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  6. But the 3km is very very moisture starved compared to the 12km. Both actually got a bit colder this run but through 60hrs the 3km is struggling to get .25 inch qpf in most places, while the 12km has widespread .75+. Ice accumulation map on the 12 km is startling to say the least. Maybe the 3km is spotting the system struggling with the antecedent dry air?

    5 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

    From what I can tell the 3km actually puts a slightly bigger area below 32 this run but the heaviest precip moved back another hour or two. Verbatim is showing 6-10 hours of freezing rain in the far NE corner depending on how much is virga. Temp at heart of heaviest precip for Clayton is 27 with a slow crawl back above freezing.

     


  7. From what I can tell the 3km actually puts a slightly bigger area below 32 this run but the heaviest precip moved back another hour or two. Verbatim is showing 6-10 hours of freezing rain in the far NE corner depending on how much is virga. Temp at heart of heaviest precip for Clayton is 27 with a slow crawl back above freezing.


  8. 22 minutes ago, Shannon said:

    The 18z GFS shows the potential for the upcoming pattern. A MASSIVE 1052 High comes down out of Canada with a low pressure sliding underneath. That’s what we need to get it a good one here 

    Need that to relax a little bit. Too much of a good thing. Notice that low pressure near the end being centered a few hundred miles into the gulf. Would struggle to get precip north of I-20 in that kind of look. We need a minor pattern adjustment more than we need an arctic plunge. Means nothing right now though, way out in fantasy land.


  9. 1 minute ago, Shannon said:

    I would figure a lot. I remember originally this was coming in Friday night. Then Saturday during the day which does make a difference because of solar radiation. I imagine Saturday night with the high pressure pumping down more dry air and close temps is a plus if we want freezing rain...

    That’s what I thought... I certainly don’t. Right here in Rabun County we haven’t had more than a 1/4 inch of ice since probably the early 2000’s. I know areas just south of here through Habersham, Hall, and Banks counties got hit hard a few years back but here it was just cold enough for all sleet.


  10. 5 minutes ago, Shannon said:

    The WRF is still out of range but has similar temp profiles as the NAM. What’s amazing are these Dew points. Super dry air which will be hard to overcome but reinforces the wedge. 

    Yeah would definitely have a lot of virga at the start, but as you said that would only help setup an in-situ wedge through the evaporational cooling.


  11. 14 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

    Still at the very end of its range but trend needs to be monitored for sure. That would still likely be a rain maybe mixed with sleet at times for most of N GA. However this sounding from the typical damming region would have me worried if it shows that inside 36-48 hours. Recall yesterday I said I wouldn’t worry about significant icing if the temps were borderline because freezing rain in and of itself is a warming process, but if temps in the mid 20s were to verify it would take a long time to scour that out and the damage would already be done.85F34779-D7E3-489D-9D44-0A7E51E430F1.thumb.png.1413612d04e223aa5c9f0f50e8cb4a2b.png

    Frame before this actually has the surface even colder at 24 degrees. No other guidance has temps near that cold though so tough to put much stock in it until we’re a bit closer. Are the high resolution models sniffing out something the coarse global models aren’t or are they just out in left field? 

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  12. 11 minutes ago, Shannon said:

    The 3KM NAM this afternoon is interesting. Shows dew points staying around 30-31 and temps around 32-34 during the majority of the event in the NE Metro Atlanta area

    Still at the very end of its range but trend needs to be monitored for sure. That would still likely be a rain maybe mixed with sleet at times for most of N GA. However this sounding from the typical damming region would have me worried if it shows that inside 36-48 hours. Recall yesterday I said I wouldn’t worry about significant icing if the temps were borderline because freezing rain in and of itself is a warming process, but if temps in the mid 20s were to verify it would take a long time to scour that out and the damage would already be done.85F34779-D7E3-489D-9D44-0A7E51E430F1.thumb.png.1413612d04e223aa5c9f0f50e8cb4a2b.png

    • Like 1

  13. I really think that storm around the 20th is the first one we’ll have to keep an eye on. With all the indicies looking to be in favorable territory around that time, most importantly in my opinion the EPO. With it going negative and pumping up that Alaskan ridge it can help to shunt that storm track further south. That’s what helped deliver the huge snows to the Atlanta suburbs in December 2017. As we got closer and closer that ridge just kept getting more amplified and forced our storm wave to dive all the way south out of the Rockies. No need to pay too much attention to it on the models until maybe the middle of next week, but my gut tells me that may be our first shot.

    • Like 5

  14. 29 minutes ago, Shannon said:

    Agree. Looking more and more like a nonevent for all of GA with the exception of the mountain peaks. Still can’t waif for the upcoming pattern tho

    No doubt! This is showing how close we already are, just a matter of a couple degrees in most places. Just a small change in the pattern (i.e. just a little more suppression) could payoff big.


  15. I can’t see freezing rain being much of an issue this weekend with temps this marginal. Freezing rain is already a self limiting process so without temps of at least, if not below, 30 it’s normally very short lived and low impact. If wedge trends significantly stronger I’d be worried, but placement and timing of the high pressure say that isn’t likely.

    • Like 1

  16. 31 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    We gonna get this under 300 hours or nah?

    Sure. Give it a few days and it’ll be under 300. Things are right on schedule from when it came apparent that the transition would be slow and not an immediate flip. Transition is underway, you should be able to walk outside and tell we are no longer in  the same warm zonal pacific dominated pattern we’ve been in for the past few weeks. Things will be turbulent as we transition, and as was just said the 19th -21st period should see the cold pattern lock in for at least a little while.

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