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KingOfTheMountains

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Posts posted by KingOfTheMountains


  1. 7 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    Here is the issue though- that’s only one run of the gfs- it could easily go away on the next run 

    Yeah that exact storm absolutely will go away on numerous runs, and it will be brought back on just as many. Small details like that are unimportant at that sort of range. The pattern however, which is what is really important, is getting locked in even inside 200 hours. That is merely showing what the possibilities are once we transition, which is already underway.


  2. 1 minute ago, LoveSnow said:

    Better get cranking soon then 

    It will be, I wouldn’t worry about that. You can see it even on that 12z GFS run, the trough of over the east is getting locked in. And, although it is hr 384 so it’s meaningless, if that exact look verified with a trough that deep and sharp I’d bet on snow for most of N GA. Cause the track would almost certainly be further south with a trough that deep, only worry would be how quickly it cuts up the coast. Again it’s GFS at 384 so it doesn’t matter, but show me that inside 7 days and I’d be giddy.


  3. That’s the one thing that has bugged me thus far, and still into the long range, is the storm track is locked in right now on going through central AL & GA instead of down along gulf coast like we need. Beyond that the only thing that worries me is that once the cold really sets in is that it may be overwhelming cold. Much like early January last year when the Deep South along the coast got snow but it was sunny and in the 20’s here. Need just enough cold push to suppress the storm track a bit but not so much that it brings an arctic dome over us.


  4. 12 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Yes, this was nothing last week, so trying to make it something big doesn't usually happen. I am excited about the changes that are beginning to show up though.

    The 12Z Euro today moved the snow a little further north and is heavier in some places.

    Snap346062223-08.thumb.jpg.369d12f873d49b3feaf957241105931f.jpg

    Yeah things definitely got more amped up this run. Which only served to bring more warmth from the gulf to us in Georgia. I’d say from our own selfish stand point (sorry Virginia lol) we want the low to be weaker/more strung out and further south, with a stronger and further south high. Qpf would definitely be lower but if a lot of us in N GA could get .25 to .5 inches liquid mostly frozen I’m sure we’d all be happy.

    • Like 2

  5. Unfortunately, at least for the time being, I don’t think this one will be as big of an impact as the previous one. For one thing, total Qpf is going to be much less than that December system. Even here in the mountains I’m thinking maybe some initial light snow followed by a period of freezing rain/sleet and then just plain rain.  The fly in the ointment so far for me with feeling confident in this one has been the high placement in southeast Canada, as opposed to the NE US with the last one. Although, for what it’s worth the high appears to be stronger. Still time for things to change, and generally thus far the trend has been for a weaker further south system so we shall see if we can pull a rabbit out of the hat.

    • Like 1

  6. 27 minutes ago, Preston said:

    Weather apps change from model run to model run and are strictly computer generated. There is very little to no human involvement in those forecasts you see on your weather app. I have no idea where your location is, but it is important to keep in mind that winter weather in this area is one of the hardest areas to forecast in the country given all the variables and things having to play out just right. I have said it for a long time, weather apps in general and particularly this part of the country are useless in forecasting winter weather.  They are good for generalities and deciding whether or not you need a coat that day. 

    I really wish the NWS could get the funding to put their basic 7 day and hourly forecast products into an app format. They’re still the only forecast I look at on my phone, just in my browser. But I understand from a consumer standpoint, an app would get more people to use it as that’s how most people get their weather now. That being said, I absolutely reccomend everyone to use the NWS 7 day forecast in whatever way you can as it will be the most consistently accurate with real forecasters involved.

    • Like 3

  7. We had a cold pattern for November and early December. The warmup was forecasted from the very start, from basically every source. Wire to wire cold doesn’t really exist anywhere in the eastern US, and definitely not in the South, so expecting that will always leave you disappointed. Cold patterns don’t guarantee snow and warm ones don’t guarantee you won’t get it. Hence us at least tracking the possibility of a wintry event this weekend in the middle of a warm period. And someone in the Southeast will likely see snow this weekend, even if most of N GA doesn't. The climatology is what it is for a reason. Going into any season expecting to bust anomalously high on any given thing, will not work out most of the time. We have very long standing averages that say, as should be no surprise, that it doesn’t snow very often in Georgia. Even here in the mountains our yearly average is only around 6 inches. Disappointments are the norm, so try not to get too emotionally invested in it all. And cherish those times, every few years where things actually do go right for us.

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  8. The evolution thus far reminds me a lot of the December system. Models are split and flipping back and forth between a weaker slider along the gulf and a more amped Apps runner event. Just like December this will all come down to timing/placement of the high pressure and track of the low. Once again, when it comes to GA, obviously the mountains are favored but strong enough cold and hopefully a few more can get involved this time. Of course it could just be a cold rain for all of us. Silver lining is this is merely a stage setter for the coming pattern that could payoff for many in the Deep South.

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  9. 7 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    Okay I see what you mean.... Just hope we aren’t chasing a false hope. 

    The latest GFS now goes back to showing a strong reversal but just 6 days later than its ensembles. I’m not gonna lie to you and say there’s not uncertainty, cause there is a considerable amount. There is going to be a warming, it has already started, but the depth and intensity as well as exactly what happens to the vortex are still up in the air. This image will show how all over the place the OP GFS is. The top most lines represent the last 3 runs of the GFS, the blue and the purple being last nights and this mornings runs backing off from the strong reversal. Then the orange line is this afternoons run and it does literally the complete opposite of the previous runs, just later than the ensembles. The other important thing to look at is the shaded regions. This is the spread in the ensemble members. The purple is the latest one, and notice that the spread is tightening so slowly but surely it is zeroing in. And as stated before the Euro has more detailed vertical profile than the GFS so lean on it more than the flip flopping of the GFS.5DBDC3F3-37E0-4B39-8AD0-C8DC9E92DB60.thumb.jpeg.a5ccb73368a13efccc23505618a65d68.jpeg

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  10. 31 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    Uh oh seeing things on Twitter about some models backing off the SSW happening 

    From what I can see it is literally only the operational GFS that has backed off. Even there it shows a SSW, just a weaker one. It has been all over the place anyway though. It’s not even supported by its own ensembles. As far as the entire GFS suite is concerned it is an outlier. SSW is already happening, now we wait to see how strong it gets. 


  11. 46 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    How long until we see the effects on the models?

    Surface effects could take a while for the models to shake out in my opinion. This is a massive scale synoptic event with an almost infinite number of moving pieces, therefor I would ignore long range surface modeling for a while until things begin to settle. Important thing to watch is the development of the SSW from day to day and try to get a gauge of its magnitude. If it ends up strong then you have to assume the surface will follow in the same way it always has after such an event. This is an example of why the human element in forecasting is still an absolute necessity.

    • Like 1

  12. 7 minutes ago, SNOW said:

    As long as the “ January thaw” doesn’t last until March!?

    Make no mistake they often can and do. But the important thing to remember is that even if it does you can still score wintry weather, the timing just becomes ever more important. On the flip side we could see the coldest winter on record, and not see a bit of snow if the storm track gets suppressed all the way to Cuba. Arctic cold is not as important as the entire pattern setup, and experienced forecasters who have been doing this for a very long time all say the upcoming pattern is nearly as good as we can hope for in the South. And nothing, to this point, has come up to warrant any doubt of that.

    • Like 1

  13. 1 hour ago, LoveSnow said:

    I have heard from another source that the SSW doesn’t always immediately help our weather.... sometimes it helps Europe more than the US

    If it was February already then I’d be worried about not getting immediate results. But with it only being mid December, even if the pattern takes a month to evolve we have plenty of time in the coldest months of the year to get some real lasting cold, a rarity in the southeast. SSW’s are painfully slow phenomena to track. They are slow to develop, and the impacts can sometimes be delayed, and the models won’t see those impacts clearly until it is happening. The important thing to watch is the magnitude of the event. Some models have the Polar Vortex splitting into as many as 3 lobes, one of these lobes would almost certainly be over North America. And in a strong SSW event PV displacement generally will last 1 to 2 months, and sometimes even longer.

    • Like 1

  14. In my experience typically our winters almost always feature an initial burst of cold, followed by a warm up, and then either back into the cold for late Jan. through Feb. or more of a zonal look and a late blast in March. Signs now point to us going back into a wintery pattern for Jan. and Feb. and maybe finally a properly timed spring this year.


  15. 3 hours ago, LoveSnow said:

    I don’t think we’re gonna have a winter........ 

    Lol if you’re gonna say things like this at least show some evidence behind your reasoning. Thing is in the South you can have a cold winter with no snow, and a warm winter with tons of it. Getting all emotional, and just deciding winter is canceled at the first completely normal and expected warmup is crazy.

    • Like 1

  16. Well hopefully if the SSW can play out nearly as strong as some models suggest, we should have a real shot at some lasting cold. Then if Niño can keep the subtropical jet running full steam ahead then we stand a good chance at scoring something. Can’t forget this is winter in the Southeast, it’s never east to get. All we can ask for is a favorable pattern and then take our chances. And for now all signs point to a favorable pattern.

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  17. 16 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    How is the SSW “ almost Guaranteed”?

    At this lead time there is an astonishing amount of support for it happening. Including every single member of the GEFS suite, and growing support from Canadian and EPS members. Again at this lead time that leads to fairly high confidence of a SSW event taking shape.

    • Thanks 1

  18. With an almost guaranteed SSW event on the way, I don’t see any reason to question the validity of a return to winter. The question will be how quick will the impacts of the SSW be felt. My guess would be the 2nd week of January at the latest, and often they can be quite long lasting. 

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