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Everything posted by KingOfTheMountains

  1. Down to 34.5 now with a steady mix falling. Dewpoint 33.5
  2. Mixed bag of sleet, rain, and when heavy big sloppy snowflakes in Clayton. Temp is at 35.3
  3. Yeah, .31 in rain here so far. Reports only about 25 miles or so to your northeast around Lake Toxaway that the ground is already white.
  4. Yep. First real heavy shower came through and cooled things from the top down. Was thinking it may tick up after it passed, but so far down a bit more to 35.4
  5. Big temp drop from 38.2 to 35.7 in just the last 15 minutes
  6. Good trends in the 12z short term models though. And looking at the current pressure map our high is moving eastward nicely with a 1038 now showing up in Ohio and heights starting to spill southward east of the Apps. So overall just a slightly warmer start than expected here, but things still look on track for the heart of the storm for sure.
  7. Just last night all the models were showing changeover around 1pm, which is why they put our WSW up to noon, but we’ve been well above forecasted temps all night and that continues this morning. And GSP is now starting to reduce snowfall by as much as 3-4 inches in the hourly forecasts up here. Hoping it’s at least sleet at this point and not rain/freezing rain for longer.
  8. Wow, impressed with the temp drops down there. Still 39.1 here after staying above 40 all night.... Certainly not going to get the early changeover that some of the models have shown. At this rate I don’t expect anything til late afternoon.
  9. I’d assume whenever they upgrade the watch to either WSW, WWA, or Ice Storm products that those will have more definite timing included.
  10. It's definitely been a while. I was living in Athens at this time last year and that storm that gave north Atlanta suburbs over a foot of snow while Athens saw a bitter cold rain was a heart breaker.
  11. Crazy gradient in Rabun county on the latest GFS, from less than an inch to over a foot. But based on soundings areas with lighter snow totals would have a lot more sleet when the rates are heavy.
  12. Yeah he has been a must follow for weather in the South in my opinion along with Robert at WxSouth of course. And I'd certainly love to pick his brain on this one.
  13. Hmm don’t know why that didn’t work the first time, but Allan Huffmans latest thinking.
  14. Allan's latest thinking. <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My updated forecast. Again subject to change and if need be I will make another update tomorrow pm. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ncwx?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ncwx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/scwx?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#scwx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/vawx?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#vawx</a> <a href="https://t.co/gm4x4oeh2D">pic.twitter.com/gm4x4oeh2D</a></p>&mdash; Allan Huffman (@RaleighWx) <a href="https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1071117371224571904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 7, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
  15. This blurb from latest GSP discussion is what I am talking about. Deeper moisture will then return with profiles steadily saturating through Saturday and upglide developing as the southern tier surface low works eastward along the Gulf Coast. The deeper layer Q-vector convergence with the upper forcing will arrive toward evening. As the profiles wet bulb down, there should be a lot of isothermal near zero profiles evident, and the concern exists for frozen ptypes to impact more of the forecast area and sooner. Will trend PoPs up a bit faster, add more QPF for the afternoon hours, and increase the snow accums over mountain sections a bit sooner. This may require moving the current hazard products up a bit, perhaps as early as Noon for the existing warning. Temps wetbulbing downward earlier than expected in the morning, and changing to mix or snow quicker. At that point falling snow, especially at heavy rates, can make warming at the surface harder. then a fairly stout near surface SE flow, up to around 925 millibars, will blow in colder dryer air also cooled by snow in NC. And if dewpoints keep falling then temps will keep wetbulbing down. Now this is the perfect scenario and may not happen, but NWS is suggesting that it may.
  16. Ground temperatures are not actually that much of a limiting factor. There is plenty of scholarly writing that all but disproves it having a substantial impact on snow totals unless they are very very warm. The initial rain falling into dry air is not a warming process, the exact opposite. It is what drives the temps down with evaporational cooling. Its not the surface temps we need to worry about so much, but the mid level temperatures. This is what will change our snow back over to sleet or rain, and the NWS has said they are expecting less of a warm nose than modeled becasue of the flat suppressed flow allowing less of a southerly flow into the region. We can still have snow and sleet with temps at 33-35, yes that will limit accumulations some. Temps don't need to dive too hard, most of our winter events happen hovering around or just below freezing anyway. I'm not saying the amounts will be much higher than what you're saying, only that once we flip over to heavy wintry precip, odds are against getting much plain rain after that, exept for drizzle once the moisture is no longer deep enough to saturate the dendritic growth zone on the back side of the storm. I'd say 4-6 snow most of the county, an inch or 2 of sleet, and a glaze of ice. Now Sky Valley, I think the NWS is right on. They should see similar conditions as the Blue Ridge Escarpment in NC, and that is going to be the bulls eye for this storm.
  17. I would agree but until the Euro is not in our corner I am expecting more. Euro is trending colder again as I type this. Yes late sunday pm it shows us going above freezing just barely but by then the heavy precip is gone, its a drizzle at best. That is not going to wash away the amounts of snow and sleet that falls before it. And a lot of times those warm ups on the back side of storm are overdone as snowpack can help hold you a few degrees colder. If it was only the NAM I'd agree, but the GFS is frankly a warm outlier at this point. Euro, CMC, Fv3 GFS, NAM, and UKMET all have much more wintry precip. There's still time for that to change as more high resolution models get closer but until then I don't see lots of above freezing rain other than on the front end. Some mixture of snow, sleet, freezing drizzle and above freezing drizzle. How long we hold snow instead of sleet determining the amounts. More warm nose, then more sleet zr and drizzle, and vice versa.
  18. Very few models show us going back to cold rain once things set in heavy Saturday night. For the most part flipping between different wintry precious at times. And right now the trend is our friend on the short term models, the globals, and their ensembles.
  19. Of course I should say it is more the GEFS that has had the big increases since 12 yesterday. The EPS and ECMWF has been more consistent since yesterday, but still some small jogs south on the EPS. And the OP run has changed even more, per this tweet from Allan.
  20. So for up here in Rabun, from lunch time yesterday all the way to now the 6z runs this morning I’ve sit and watched the ensemble mean snowfall on bothe the GEFS and EPS go up significantly across the county. So how likely is it that at least a decent portion of this event is all or at least mostly snow? Of note this morning also, the WPC said that they think warm air advection is being overdone in modeling because the weaker system in suppressive environment flow should be primarily east to west.
  21. Yep. Just nothing else to say about it. Models keep moving back and forth rather substantially with even the slightest changes in the big picture. So lets just get all the players on the field and see what happens. Gonna be a nowcasting event for most areas on the edges anyway. For what its worth I'm hoping the Fv3 GFS has had this thing right from the very beginning, as it has showed remarkable consistency for over a week now. Unfortunately, around these parts, in the end that can often just mean the model consistently wrong for over a week lol
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