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KingOfTheMountains

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Posts posted by KingOfTheMountains


  1. 5 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    My temp for the moment, it rock steady. If you just started getting precip, that could be the reason for the quick drop.

    Yep. First real heavy shower came through and cooled things from the top down. Was thinking it may tick up after it passed, but so far down a bit more to 35.4

    • Like 1

  2. Good trends in the 12z short term models though. And looking at the current pressure map our high is moving eastward nicely with a 1038 now showing up in Ohio and heights starting to spill southward east of the Apps. 679C17EA-45AB-4301-9F89-77BCC0DC6527.gif.2daff73fa6f5a551e7a38cfb1df98b05.gifSo overall just a slightly warmer start than expected here, but things still look on track for the heart of the storm for sure. 

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  3. Just last night all the models were showing changeover around 1pm, which is why they put our WSW up to noon, but we’ve been well above forecasted temps all night and that continues this morning. And GSP is now starting to reduce snowfall by as much as 3-4 inches in the hourly forecasts up here. Hoping it’s at least sleet at this point and not rain/freezing rain for longer.

    • Like 1

  4. 3 minutes ago, Rioderreiser said:

    Athens native here. Even though we're not really relevant as far as this storm goes, I've been thinking. Can anyone remember the last time Athens got any significant snow? By significant I mean like 2 inches or more, enough to make a snowman in. It just feels like it's been years.

    It's definitely been a while. I was living in Athens at this time last year and that storm that gave north Atlanta suburbs over a foot of snow while Athens saw a bitter cold rain was a heart breaker. 


  5. 2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Yes, I saw that a few minutes ago. I like Allan and have followed him for a long time. Many years ago before he moved his models to the AMWX forum, he use to let me post his model images on my site. 🙂

    Yeah he has been a must follow for weather in the South in my opinion along with Robert at WxSouth of course. And I'd certainly love to pick his brain on this one. 

    • Like 1

  6. Allan's latest thinking.

    <blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My updated forecast. Again subject to change and if need be I will make another update tomorrow pm. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ncwx?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ncwx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/scwx?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#scwx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/vawx?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#vawx</a> <a href="https://t.co/gm4x4oeh2D">pic.twitter.com/gm4x4oeh2D</a></p>&mdash; Allan Huffman (@RaleighWx) <a href="https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1071117371224571904?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 7, 2018</a></blockquote>
    <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
    
    

  7. This blurb from latest GSP discussion is what I am talking about.

    Deeper moisture will then return with profiles steadily saturating
    through Saturday and upglide developing as the southern tier surface
    low works eastward along the Gulf Coast. The deeper layer Q-vector
    convergence with the upper forcing will arrive toward evening. As
    the profiles wet bulb down, there should be a lot of isothermal near
    zero profiles evident, and the concern exists for frozen ptypes to
    impact more of the forecast area and sooner. Will trend PoPs up a
    bit faster, add more QPF for the afternoon hours, and increase the
    snow accums over mountain sections a bit sooner. This may require
    moving the current hazard products up a bit, perhaps as early as
    Noon for the existing warning.

    Temps wetbulbing downward earlier than expected in the morning, and changing to mix or snow quicker. At that point falling snow, especially at heavy rates, can make warming at the surface harder. then a fairly stout near surface SE flow, up to around 925 millibars, will blow in  colder dryer air also cooled by snow in NC. And if dewpoints keep falling then temps will keep wetbulbing down. Now this is the perfect scenario and may not happen, but NWS is suggesting that it may.

    • Like 2

  8. 1 minute ago, kshields8426 said:

    I just think you are underestimating the warm rain that will keep us above freezing longer than it seems you give it credit for. Right now, even the NWS and others have us just barely flirting with freezing until Monday PM. I happen to agree with them. Unless something really changes, this doesn't have the making of a high water mark of wintery accumulation. Ground still not cold enough, but that could be overcome., temperatures not really diving to hard, but that could be overcome...but both? We will have to see a change. And I cannot tell you how many times I've seen people go with the Euro here and on his facebook page...only to realize that it seems to want to give us blizzards. And as we all know, the models with what they say and what hits the ground differ...a lot.

    Ground temperatures are not actually that much of a limiting factor. There is plenty of scholarly writing that all but disproves it having a substantial impact on snow totals unless they are very very warm. The initial rain falling into dry air is not a warming process, the exact opposite. It is what drives the temps down with evaporational cooling. Its not the surface temps we need to worry about so much, but the mid level temperatures. This is what will change our snow back over to sleet or rain, and the NWS has said they are expecting less of a warm nose than modeled becasue of the flat suppressed flow allowing less of a southerly flow into the region. We can still have snow and sleet with temps at 33-35, yes that will limit accumulations some. Temps don't need to dive too hard, most of our winter events happen hovering around or just below freezing anyway. I'm not saying the amounts will be much higher than what you're saying, only that once we flip over to heavy wintry precip, odds are against getting much plain rain after that, exept for drizzle once the moisture is no longer deep enough to saturate the dendritic growth zone on the back side of the storm. I'd say 4-6 snow most of the county, an inch or 2 of sleet, and a glaze of ice. Now Sky Valley, I think the NWS is right on. They should see similar conditions as the Blue Ridge Escarpment in NC, and that is going to be the bulls eye for this storm.

    • Like 1

  9. 23 minutes ago, kshields8426 said:

    I just don't see the temps playing along. I expect we will see 2-4 inches fall, but by Sunday 6-8:00 PM, I think much will have washed away depending on how much actually does stick to begin with. And the NAM has a consistent history of overdoing moisture and types. I think we will transition to snow at some point early sunday morning (and that greatly depends on your definition of early morning) but will then transition back and forth between sleet and snow by mid morning before taking a turn towards rain. Right now, the temps that we are looking at do not support a dumping.

    I would agree but until the Euro is not in our corner I am expecting more. Euro is trending colder again as I type this. Yes late sunday pm it shows us going above freezing just barely but by then the heavy precip is gone, its a drizzle at best. That is not going to wash away the amounts of snow and sleet that falls before it. And a lot of times those warm ups on the back side of storm are overdone as snowpack can help hold you a few degrees colder. If it was only the NAM I'd agree, but the GFS is frankly a warm outlier at this point. Euro, CMC, Fv3 GFS, NAM, and UKMET all have much more wintry precip. There's still time for that to change as more high resolution models get closer but until then I don't see lots of above freezing rain other than on the front end. Some mixture of snow, sleet, freezing drizzle and above freezing drizzle. How long we hold snow instead of sleet determining the amounts. More warm nose, then more sleet zr and drizzle, and vice versa.

    • Like 1

  10. 15 minutes ago, kshields8426 said:

    I live in Rabun and used to do Facebook live weather reports for the Tribune up here. Sky Valley is its own beast. It is 3,300 feet above sea level, and that is the entire area is at that or above, and generally is around 7-10 degrees colder year round. I am at 2400 in rabun gap and we will see nothing sometimes and they will get several inches. They have a very unique ecosystem in terms of weather up there.

    The problem for most of us in Rabun, with this storm, is that in between snow falling, we will get a cold rain, which doesn't make for nice pictures nor does it make for anything pretty. That said, I am starting to think we will see very little on the ground. But hey, it is still early december.

    Very few models show us going back to cold rain once things set in heavy Saturday night. For the most part flipping between different wintry precious at times. And right now the trend is our friend on the short term models, the globals, and their ensembles.

    • Like 1

  11. 6 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

    So for up here in Rabun, from lunch time yesterday all the way to now the 6z runs this morning I’ve sit and watched the ensemble mean snowfall on bothe the GEFS and EPS go up significantly across the county. So how likely is it that at least a decent portion of this event is all or at least mostly snow? Of note this morning also, the WPC said that they think warm air advection is being overdone in modeling because the weaker system in suppressive environment flow should be primarily east to west.

    Of course I should say it is more the GEFS that has had the big increases since 12 yesterday. The EPS and ECMWF has been more consistent since yesterday, but still some small jogs south on the EPS. And the OP run has changed even more, per this tweet from Allan.

     


  12. So for up here in Rabun, from lunch time yesterday all the way to now the 6z runs this morning I’ve sit and watched the ensemble mean snowfall on bothe the GEFS and EPS go up significantly across the county. So how likely is it that at least a decent portion of this event is all or at least mostly snow? Of note this morning also, the WPC said that they think warm air advection is being overdone in modeling because the weaker system in suppressive environment flow should be primarily east to west.


  13. 22 minutes ago, WILL said:

    Just a wait and see 

    Yep. Just nothing else to say about it. Models keep moving back and forth rather substantially with even the slightest changes in the big picture. So lets just get all the players on the field and see what happens. Gonna be a nowcasting event for most areas on the edges anyway. For what its worth I'm hoping the Fv3 GFS has had this thing right from the very beginning, as it has showed remarkable consistency for over a week now. Unfortunately, around these parts, in the end that can often just mean the model consistently wrong for over a week lol

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