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Everything posted by KingOfTheMountains

  1. My confidence is pretty high that you will at the very least see snow falling. Accumulations are very low confidence for basically all of N GA. They are definitely possible, and some will likely see some, but the gradient is so tight it's too close to call with any real confidence.
  2. Great post by Robert at Wxsouth. Notice that the red bullseye doesn't necessarily mean snow accumulations, he thinks there's a high likelihood of a lot of heavy wet snow at least falling over the northern tier of counties. Some places probably will see some accumulation, but the forecast is almost too close to call on exact amounts because of the gradient between rain and snow being so tight.
  3. GFS again looks pretty good. Still shows a changeover from rain/mix to all snow sometime between 10 and 1. I'd guess in the 11 o'clock hour for the Northern tier of counties, 12 o'clock hour for the 2nd row. Heavy snow from then through the late afternoon hours before tapering off. Surface may be around 33-35 but it'll still pile up in the yard at least at that temp. Still some concerns with the mid level warm nose from hi-res modeling causing mixing issues later in the storm also, but I'm not sure we even can accurately forecast its intensity and location. Warm nose impact could end up being more of a now-casting thing.
  4. Just looked at it, it's definitely looking good. SREF made a big jump on the right direction too, not as much but getting close.
  5. NAM absolutely not backing down and continuing to get better. Other short term guidance continuing to move closer to its solution. It's consistent I'll give it that.
  6. That's a pretty cool site. Would be interested to know where they pull their data from. My guess is the point forecast grids from NWS.
  7. So I'm not saying this is significant but it is at least interesting. A meteorologist who posts on AmWx has been tracking model performance on SE winter storms when they are split, and this is the results he's got. This only goes back to December 2016 so not a significant sample size, but interesting nonetheless.
  8. My go to local news station when it comes to weather has released a first call map. Of course these totals can and will change which they note. If NAM or GFS is right then they will go way up for NC Mtns.
  9. Depends on what your baseline expectations are. 32-36 is the likely point of bottoming out in areas that are able to see a changeover to all snow. But surface temps are less important right now. Handling of the mid level warm air is key on actually getting that changeover. Very hard, sometimes downright impossible to accurately forecast. Only time will tell.
  10. Right now from a forecast perspective, I'd say all of North GA outside of higher elevations is on the cutoff line, myself included. But as for just that GFS run the majority of Lumpkin looked pretty good, but with an extremely tight gradient. It showed 4 inches or so on the north end and less than an inch at the southern tip of the county. But for now that's nothing more than a single model run, definitely not a forecast.
  11. Best run of the GFS yet for the NE corner. Looks to change to all snow sometime between 10am and 1pm which is right in time for the heart of the storm. Mid level temps look good from then on. It has the surface around 34 but experience tells me that if heavy snow is falling it will probably be just a bit closer to freezing. Regardless I've seen plenty of nice accumulating snows at 34 degrees. Even better because the roads aren't dangerous.
  12. 3km looks a little better with mid level temps than 12km. Northern tier of counties are right on the dividing line right now. Could go either way. Still hoping to see the NAM relax a little over the next few cycles which might help us with the warm nose.
  13. Good stuff! They knocked Tigers high forecast down from 44 to 37 on that update. Still only 0.1 snow accumulation on the grids though lol. Not that I disagree at this venture necessarily. Still a frustratingly undecided forecast at the moment.
  14. Obviously there are some trends on models like the GFS and NAM that are not great for us right now. But, I feel like they may be over amplifying the storm right now causing for increased warm air advection in the mid-levels. Meeting somewhere in the middle between them and the weakest models seems like a safe bet for now, which could actually be better for us despite less moisture.
  15. Definitely the NAM but none of them did particularly well outside 36 hours or so.
  16. It's odd that Cantore says that about the HP placement when that's actually prime climo placement for non-CAD storms. I think the reason for borderline thermals is more likely due to more lackluster source cold than usual because of the vortex being so locked up. A nearly 1050 HP over the plains should be plenty most of the time.
  17. Yeah NAM is getting really close to fringing us out due to upper level warm nose. But at the same time, it is likely over amped and thus too strong with the warm nose.
  18. Yeah it's definitely still far from settled. I'd put ours and Towns (maybe Union?) county's odds at seeing snowfall now in the 40-50% range. The next tier of counties(Stephens, Habersham, White, Lumpkin, etc) I'd say around 20-30%. These odds could go up or down dramatically as we start moving into better Hi-Res data territory tomorrow.
  19. Well Glenn said just 2 days ago that literally every model he saw said it was gonna be dry cloudy and windy across the SE lol. It was an outright lie hoping suppression would win out and he'd end up right in the end.
  20. Increasingly confident in some undetermined amount of snow falling at least over the very northeastern corner of the state.
  21. Yeah I think at this point it's becoming more likely that this is a borderline event as far as thermals go. Which means that the mountains are the only areas that are favored to see accumulating snow. There are still things that can happen to expand that to other areas but it is less likely at this point. Long ways to go still unfortunately.
  22. I can't wait til we get into range of all the higher resolution guidance and maybe get a better feel for this. Even in a normal setup we're moving into a range where the globals are becoming less and less useful. In this setup they could quite literally be too course to pick up on a potentially very narrow band of frontogenesis.
  23. Looks like every single member of GEFS has at least an inch in the NE corner.
  24. If the coastal develops then it's possible. But for now I think we should stay focused on the over running portion on Thursday since not all models are onboard with the coastal idea yet.
  25. Big increase in snow mean on GEFS. It has Rabun and Towns 850 temp below freezing by 7 pm Wednesday night.
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