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KingOfTheMountains

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Posts posted by KingOfTheMountains


  1. 4 minutes ago, Preston said:

    Do you look at the HRW? It didn't do bad with our event a couple of weeks ago and it is giving the southern mountains a very good scenario currently. It's available on Pivotal Weather. Earlier start time and I like the trajectory of it for us in Rabun. This run is pretty aggressive though. 

    Just looked at it, it's definitely looking good. SREF made a big jump on the right direction too, not as much but getting close. 

    • Like 2

  2. So I'm not saying this is significant but it is at least interesting. A meteorologist who posts on AmWx has been tracking model performance on SE winter storms when they are split, and this is the results he's got. 1855600784_imageproxy(1).gif.fc1ed8815b86b8a06bfc21f067b7805d.gif

    This only goes back to December 2016 so not a significant sample size, but interesting nonetheless. 

    • Like 4

  3. 1 minute ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

    Still a chance we can trend colder?

    Depends on what your baseline expectations are. 32-36 is the likely point of bottoming out in areas that are able to see a changeover to all snow. But surface temps are less important right now. Handling of the mid level warm air is key on actually getting that changeover. Very hard, sometimes downright impossible to accurately forecast. Only time will tell. 


  4. 1 minute ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

    King, Lumpkin county still on the cutoff line?

    Right now from a forecast perspective, I'd say all of North GA outside of higher elevations is on the cutoff line, myself included.

    But as for just that GFS run the majority of Lumpkin looked pretty good, but with an extremely tight gradient. It showed 4 inches or so on the north end and less than an inch at the southern tip of the county. But for now that's nothing more than a single model run, definitely not a forecast. 


  5. Best run of the GFS yet for the NE corner. Looks to change to all snow sometime between 10am and 1pm which is right in time for the heart of the storm. Mid level temps look good from then on. It has the surface around 34 but experience tells me that if heavy snow is falling it will probably be just a bit closer to freezing. Regardless I've seen plenty of nice accumulating snows at 34 degrees. Even better because the roads aren't dangerous. 

    • Like 1

  6. 13 minutes ago, Andrew said:

    The 18z 12K NAM would make me happy

    3km looks a little better with mid level temps than 12km. Northern tier of counties are right on the dividing line right now. Could go either way. Still hoping to see the NAM relax a little over the next few cycles which might help us with the warm nose. 


  7. 1 minute ago, Preston said:

    New National Weather Service forecast for Sky Valley. They are saying 1-2” of snow now. 
     

    20CDEA7A-8226-41C2-A679-49126CA7D64F.jpeg

    Good stuff! They knocked Tigers high forecast down from 44 to 37 on that update. Still only 0.1 snow accumulation on the grids though lol. Not that I disagree at this venture necessarily. Still a frustratingly undecided forecast at the moment.


  8. Obviously there are some trends on models like the GFS and NAM that are not great for us right now. But, I feel like they may be over amplifying the storm right now causing for increased warm air advection in the mid-levels. Meeting somewhere in the middle between them and the weakest models seems like a safe bet for now, which could actually be better for us despite less moisture. 


  9. 10 minutes ago, JDub said:

    Just out of curiosity- which model was the most accurate for the last snow “storm” we had 10 days ago? 

    Definitely the NAM but none of them did particularly well outside 36 hours or so. 


  10. It's odd that Cantore says that about the HP placement when that's actually prime climo placement for non-CAD storms. 

    I think the reason for borderline thermals is more likely due to more lackluster source cold than usual because of the vortex being so locked up. A nearly 1050 HP over the plains should be plenty most of the time. 


  11. 7 minutes ago, Preston said:

    NAM 3K is still holding out some hope for the mountains and northern counties. From looking at soundings, it is flirting with a warm nose though. 

    DON'T TAKE THIS AS A FORECAST

     

    NAM3K 2-18-20.png

    Yeah NAM is getting really close to fringing us out due to upper level warm nose. But at the same time, it is likely over amped and thus too strong with the warm nose. 


  12. Just now, Preston said:

    Evening medium range guidance is split 50/50, GFS is beginning to line up more with the NAM and the Canadian is not buying it in NE GA but doesn't seem to be recognizing evap cooling and leaving us with mostly a cold rain. Interested in what the NAM 3K and EURO has to say in the morning but that's all the model watching I have in me tonight. I'm gonna go to bed and hopefully dream about an overproducing overrunning precip scenario. 

    Yeah it's definitely still far from settled. I'd put ours and Towns (maybe Union?) county's odds at seeing snowfall now in the 40-50% range. The next tier of counties(Stephens, Habersham, White, Lumpkin, etc) I'd say around 20-30%. These odds could go up or down dramatically as we start moving into better Hi-Res data territory tomorrow. 


  13. 5 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    Well if you believe Glenn burns he said it’s only gonna be a mix of rain/snow for a couple hours and that’s it.  And I know it’s Glenn and he rubs people the wrong way but still 

    Well Glenn said just 2 days ago that literally every model he saw said it was gonna be dry cloudy and windy across the SE lol. It was an outright lie hoping suppression would win out and he'd end up right in the end.

    • Like 1

  14. 2 minutes ago, SNOW said:

    Yeah, a lot of moving pieces, I’m always concerned about cold air feed/arrival, that’s a stout high, but..

    Yeah I think at this point it's becoming more likely that this is a borderline event as far as thermals go. Which means that the mountains are the only areas that are favored to see accumulating snow. There are still things that can happen to expand that to other areas but it is less likely at this point. Long ways to go still unfortunately. 

    • Like 1

  15. 4 minutes ago, SNOW said:

    Yeah, the 18z Euro didn’t help at all! Model madness!

    I can't wait til we get into range of all the higher resolution guidance and maybe get a better feel for this. Even in a normal setup we're moving into a range where the globals are becoming less and less useful. In this setup they could quite literally be too course to pick up on a potentially very narrow band of frontogenesis. 


  16. 18 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

    I know a lot of details but new GEFS shows (about half of the ensembles) snow still lingering in NE Georgia Friday morning, Is there a chance this thing lasts that long?

    If the coastal develops then it's possible. But for now I think we should stay focused on the over running portion on Thursday since not all models are onboard with the coastal idea yet. 


  17. 2 minutes ago, JackFrost said:

    What sort of time frame are we looking at? I wouldn’t mind having to leave work early here in Pickens 😆

    Right now it's precip moving in after sunrise to 10 AM Thursday and then varying times on potential changeover there afterward depending on location and elevation. But again details like timing, R/S lines, precip amounts are very far from being determined. Still an extremely uncertain forecast. Climatology says borderline temp events favor the mountain counties. 

    • Like 1

  18. 5 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

    King, how do readings look for Dahlonega?

    Borderline right now. Could go either way. NAM and GFS have that area being right on the rain/snow line for the majority of the event. Verbatim it's showing a situation where northern Lumpkin would be mostly snow, southern Lumpkin mostly rain, and a sloppy wintry mix in between. But we're nowhere near ready for that level of detail yet, that line is gonna move all over the place over the next couple days. 


  19. GFS is actually a little colder at onset than the NAM. 35 in Clayton, and soundings indicate all snow despite some of the ptype maps showing a change to rain. If these temps verify, we just need QPF. Even GFS isn't bad with probably an inch or so in accumulation. 

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