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KingOfTheMountains

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Posts posted by KingOfTheMountains


  1. And I'm only treating the coastal as a potential bonus. All I'm looking for is better QPF during the over running portion of the event. Which, according to the experts, the globals almost always underestimate QPF on the northern fringe during. If not for that fact I wouldn't feel very good about the setup. 


  2. 5 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    I would be a little wary of the NAM 12km though. It's usually over amped. Not to say it's wrong but I would like some other model support. 

    Oh no doubt. Only reason I'm even entertaining it at this lead time is because of how well it did a little over a week ago. 


  3. 1 minute ago, Preston said:

    NAM has me intrigued with a strengthening Low Pressure off the Carolina coast. That sort of setup could keep the snow going and give wrap around precip to NE GA. 

    Yeah if that were to happen verbatim we would probably be on the light fringes of the coastal storm bombing out. Very light QPF but potentially very high ratios. Nearly a perfect run for our area. Slightly colder onset, and the coastal development being a little closer to the coast is the only improvements we could possibly have over that. Unfortunately it's days away and almost certain to change lol


  4. 23 minutes ago, Shannon said:

    Geez I was joking about the 35 degree rain but I was right. Outside of the mountains where it depicts snow, its a cold 33-35 degree from  I-20 north on the 18z NAM

    Yeah, I pulled up some soundings for that area too just to check and it is definitely mostly rain unfortunately. The unfortunate truth to our climatology that snow most often favors the further north and higher terrain. Might transition to a mix in the latter half of the event. Just one run though, still time for things to change. 


  5. nam_2020021718_066_34.91--83_36.thumb.png.5f9536d9fd2127344dc79080f4daec8e.pngThis is a sounding for Clayton at onset. This would very quickly transition from rain/wintry mix to all snow, and the surface temp would go below freezing. Would stay snow from then on, possibly even high ratio snow towards the end as the upper air thermals crash. 

    • Like 1

  6. NWS GSP starting to at least entertain the idea of snow. 

    There now looks to be a brief break in the precip Wednesday night as
    the first wave of forcing moves east and some drier air moves in. Of
    course, this sets the stage for the potential for some wintry precip
    as moisture moves back in Thursday ahead of the surface wave moving
    along the front and some upper divergence associated with a coupled
    jet streak. The guidance still doesn`t agree on how far north the
    moisture moves or just how cold the air will be. That said, it is
    now looking like there will be precip at least as far north as the I-
    85 corridor and likely the NC mountains. Precip tapers off quickly
    Thursday night as the wave moves east of the area. The thermal
    profiles and partial thickness progs show the precip to be rain or
    snow with no significant warm nose. I`m beginning to become wary of
    the snowfall potential given the previous 2 snow events where the
    thermal profile and thickness values were quite similar. I suspect
    this event could be similar where precip begins as snow over the
    western CWFA along and north of the I-85 corridor with accumulations
    developing where precip can fall for the longest period of time.
    That said, have followed the national guidance for now which keeps
    the accumulating snow across the higher elevations and mainly rain
    outside of the mountains. Of course, this forecast could go either
    way, so interested parties will need to stay abreast of the latest
    updates.
    • Like 2

  7. 2 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

    Things seem to be looking better as i take breaks today? Yalls thoughts?

    I would say slowly increasing likelihood of snow, at least falling, somewhere in the SE US. Where that could be is still highly undecided, and will likely take a while to pin down. 


  8. It appears the Canadians recent investments in their model have been well spent. GFS continues to embarrass on the global scale, and now the British are about to put a ton of money into their models as well. 

     

    • Like 1

  9. 3 minutes ago, Preston said:

    We are starting to get into that time frame where medium range guidance is not as useful. Like you said, big picture wise, we can still gain some things from it but this is such a borderline setup, hi-res guidance is going to have to have the final call. The mountains are certainly going to be favored in a borderline temp setup, just a matter of moisture.
     

    My local experience here in Sky Valley says this is going to be simply a moisture issue, with temps in guidance the way they are, we will get to around freezing if moisture will cooperate. 

    Yep, at least as modeled now, the column is prepped to deliver snow. We just need the moisture to cooperate. As long as the surface isn't any warmer than 38 or so I'd be confident in our area seeing at least a trace of accumulating snow if the moisture is there. 

    • Like 1

  10. I suspect, much like with our last storm, Euro may be a bit too warm at the surface. I think as far as surface ptype/temps go we are gonna have to wait til hi-res guidance gets into range. While the globals right now can be used on bigger picture stuff like the handling of the vort at H5 and trough alignment. 


  11. 4 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    I think the 12z GFS looks okay if you assume that this statement is mostly true. The upper air column was sufficiently cold over N GA, the GFS just didn't get much precip there to trigger evaporative cooling. I remain convinced that for at least the top row or 2 of counties our biggest concern is getting sufficient moisture transport this far north. I am not convinced that we will, but as Eric points out this is something that the models often underestimate. 

    Note: I am speaking purely for snow falling. Accumulations would be cut down depending on how long that evaporative cooling process takes. But specific accumulations isn't something we should talk about til 24-48 hrs out. 

    • Like 1

  12. 2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Yep, here's the 12z NAM 12km. There are enough solutions saying there is still a chance. 

    NOT A FORECAST

    nam-218-all-georgia-total_snow_10to1-2243200.thumb.png.7706af0cde71dbfccff1649df54cf45d.png

    And based on thermal profiles above that is probably a higher than 10:1 snow in places that it can get the surface down to around freezing. 

    • Like 1

  13. Just now, Dahlonegadawg said:

    Oh my the GEM

    Decent look, but a little late to bloom for us. Actually preferred it's previous run at 12z for us. I'd much prefer the over running event as opposed to a Miller A Coastal type storm. It would need to form further west in the gulf to do us any real good, and in this fast flow positive tilt pattern that is darn near impossible.


  14. 4 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

    How much can the temperature forecast still change? 

    A lot. But it is going to be well above freezing everywhere as the precip rolls in. Key is getting a cold enough column above and sufficient precip rates to drive the temp down. Exactly where these things may or may not overlap is going to take quite a while to nail down. 


  15. 9 minutes ago, Preston said:

    IMO, yes and no. Latest run ends at 7am Thursday, there is moisture on the way it looks like but cold air seems to be questionable. I like the trend of more moisture but tomorrow’s runs should tell us much more. 

    The column above looks cold enough for snow at least for us at that time. And looking at some Soundings the wet bulb looks below freezing for the entire column except for the surface. So I'd be confident with that look as long as we got sufficient rates we could get the surface down to around freezing, but who knows how much QPF we'd waste doing it. But of course that really is the big question for our area, whether or not we get enough moisture. Now for the rest of N GA, idk. It's a borderline setup. If 850s kept crashing then I'd say there's a good shot at changing over to snow. 

    That's all speculation of course, extrapolating a model that isn't all that reliable at the very end of its range anyway though. So, wait and see is the best approach for now. 


  16. 31 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

    How we feeling right now?

    Honest answer, things haven't really changed much over the last day or so. There was a day of back and forth, and all we did in the end was get back to square one. As hard as predicting snow is in the SE, this one is even harder. It'll be a little while til we can really answer that question one way or the other. 


  17. I will say I am very intrigued as to what the NAM will look like as we get better into its range. It really gained some respect from me for how well it forecasted last weekends event from a fairly good lead time. 

    • Like 2

  18. 5 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

    Regardless of precip, definitely looks like we’re going to end February fairly chilly! 

    It really does which is nice. For now at least, it looks like we will see a brief warmup after the Thursday system and then maybe actually a somewhat extended stretch of below normal temps. Which has kind of been the trend the past few years as we head into March. 

    • Like 2

  19. Surprisingly though NWS Weather Prediction Center is mostly tossing the Euro suite right now. They are primarily going with a GFS/CMC blend which would definitely mean snow for someone in the SE. Not sure if bet against the EPS at this range but they know a lot more than I do. 

    • Like 1

  20. 5 minutes ago, SNOW said:

    Euro still suppressed! Hard to get excited about this threat! Either suppressed or rain, seems to be the 2 choices, I’d rather have suppressed, if no snow!

    Oh yeah, I'm not very confident for our area at all right now. I just think somewhere in the SE may get lucky.

    I wouldn't take the rain look on the other models verbatim though. Upper air is cold enough it could be snow for those with decent rates, and if they last long enough the surface temp would fall towards freezing. Same thing happened last weekend in places like Athens, Upstate SC, etc. 

    • Thanks 1

  21. This is going to be extreme needle threading for somewhere in the SE I believe. NAM and CMC are holding that wave back just a little longer, letting the cold seep in just a bit more. Surface temps are obviously an issue and could end up being a pretty white rain event for some people.

    Edit: Should note the GEFS is trending in that same direction so it's not exactly just the NAM and Canadian on an island. 

    • Like 4

  22. I might just be about to unfollow Glenn on Facebook...316932794_Screenshot_20200216-0028452.thumb.png.2590ceebf04d3ed4bd353446b6b4f618.pngI've enjoyed his work and respected him over the years but he has not adjusted to the social media age well at all. This post is just as dishonest to his followers as someone saying it's definitely going to snow. All he's gotta do is say, "I've seen the rumors, we're keeping an eye on it, but at this moment it looks unlikely."

    I'm so glad I live in the GSP counties cause Chris Justus at WYFF in Greenville is one of the best in the business and took over for one of the best to ever do it in John Cessarich. Chris is engaging, honest, and very transparent in his forecasting. Including when he's generally unsure of what is going to happen, instead of just throwing darts at the wall and hoping they will stick. Thankfully he's very active on Facebook though, cause the TV companies still force us to get locals out of Atlanta even though our weather comes from Greenville. 

    • Like 1
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