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Everything posted by KingOfTheMountains

  1. This is going to be extreme needle threading for somewhere in the SE I believe. NAM and CMC are holding that wave back just a little longer, letting the cold seep in just a bit more. Surface temps are obviously an issue and could end up being a pretty white rain event for some people. Edit: Should note the GEFS is trending in that same direction so it's not exactly just the NAM and Canadian on an island.
  2. I might just be about to unfollow Glenn on Facebook...I've enjoyed his work and respected him over the years but he has not adjusted to the social media age well at all. This post is just as dishonest to his followers as someone saying it's definitely going to snow. All he's gotta do is say, "I've seen the rumors, we're keeping an eye on it, but at this moment it looks unlikely." I'm so glad I live in the GSP counties cause Chris Justus at WYFF in Greenville is one of the best in the business and took over for one of the best to ever do it in John Cessarich. Chris is engaging, honest, and very transparent in his forecasting. Including when he's generally unsure of what is going to happen, instead of just throwing darts at the wall and hoping they will stick. Thankfully he's very active on Facebook though, cause the TV companies still force us to get locals out of Atlanta even though our weather comes from Greenville.
  3. Yeah with the pattern so progressive and multiple pieces of energy to try and pinpoint, it's no surprise the models are struggling a bit and doing a lot of back and forth. Hi Res modeling may help sort through the mess and see some of the more subtle features that may or may not impact the track of our shortwaves.
  4. Definitely a positive move on the EPS. We'll see if we can actually establish a trend.
  5. I hope we can get it to trend back but I'm certainly not holding my breath. Over running events like this are pretty much my favorite type of Southern snow system. Don't have to deal with those pesky warm noses that we get in the big LP storms, and they almost always over perform. GEFS certainly didn't slam the door, but we're running out of time for big changes. Small adjustments more likely.
  6. It's too fast with the northern stream energy pushing through and clearing things out. There are 2 ways to get what we want. Either the southern stream energy out west needs to quit lagging behind or the northern stream energy needs to slow down/dig further SW. Both ways would help pump heights a bit in the SE and establish our WSW flow off the pacific/gulf. As is right now, by 7 AM Thursday mid-level winds north of Augusta flip WNW and shutoff the moisture transport.
  7. Definitely, and it actually happens quite a bit. Remains to be seen if we can get that lucky this time.
  8. My confidence was never higher than 10-15% anyway because according to the ensembles there were still way too many solutions on the board. My confidence will go up or down based on how things play out as we go forward. To be fair, my confidence wouldn't be any higher than 20-30% even if everything looked perfect right now simply because it's too far out.
  9. Yeah. I spend less time on that site since this one started. Just tend to pop up when there's a threat around.
  10. GFS just caved to the Euro.... Still time to work it out, but that's a big blow. My confidence is now definitely below 10%.
  11. This is the exact point that I'm not good enough at saying all the time. I enjoy analyzing modeled scenarios, and that can sometimes come across as confidence in them being right. As I said earlier, my overall confidence in this event has probably come down slightly because of the Euro suite backing off. My confidence is in the 10-20% range at this point. The potential setup is great for snow somewhere in the SE. With a strong cold HP to the north and a SE ridge below, that pinch point between those 2 features is hair trigger sensitive to any energy at all moving along the boundary. But that setup has to actually come to fruition, which is where my confidence drops because the models are still all over the place in that regard.
  12. Hard not to like the look on the GFS today though. Fairly potent upper level moisture with connections all the way back in the tropical pacific. Would love to see this setup on the short term models that can actually pick up the upslope enhancement up here in the mountains.
  13. Yeah, I probably should've noted that in my post lol. I was speaking specifically off of the scenario that the GFS and Canadian models are showing today.
  14. So I actually wanna take back what I said earlier to this question. My impulse is always to say yes to this question because our climatology says that is usually the case. But given that this could actually be a rates driven event, further south could actually be a better spot. 850 temps look very cold region wide with a very shallow warm boundary. Anywhere that gets heavy enough moisture should be able to drive that cold air to the ground and temps fall to around freezing. A lot like what was seen further east this past weekend where the temps warmed quite a bit before dropping again once the heavier snow moved in. Therefore there could actually be a sweet spot somewhere south of the mountains that has the right over lap of cold enough temps and heavy rates.
  15. Very small differences are making up the differences we are seeing in the models. Things actually moved into better agreement as far as placement of features. Differences in the strengths and timing are causing differences in the amount of moisture transport we see aloft. CMC, UKMET, and GFS are the most aggressive with setting up moisture transport off the pacific, while ECMWF and ICON are the least aggressive. Still in the game nearing 5 days out is the most important part.
  16. So with the 12z models now done, I'd say that my confidence has certainly went down from yesterday but I'm far from throwing in the towel. The strangest part of that is that there are actually more models on board today, but when the king speaks you better listen lol.
  17. Yeah, and this is such a fickle setup it's gonna be hard to pin down for a while. It's not like we've actually got a discrete surface based LP for the models to track. Instead it's a thermal gradient pattern with just little bits of energy running along the boundary. May need to wait for higher resolution models to have a good feel for it.
  18. For now I'd say yeah more than likely, but 850s are very cold so could be some ptype concerns even down there. But really it's too far out for that level of detail yet.
  19. GFS is fairly flat too, but it keys in on different parts of the vort diving down and weakens the SW portion quickly. With a thermal gradient in place the atmosphere is hair trigger sensitive to any well placed energy, so flat can still work, but things have to be perfect.
  20. Not over yet. Just our typical roller coaster ride of long range model watching. Odd to say the least to see every model trend towards the Euro only for the Euro to drop it. Features on the GFS and Euro are actually fairly well lined up, but they have different ideas about the strengths of said features. More waiting I'm afraid.
  21. Looks like it's gonna stay suppressed and dry. Amazing that as all the other guidance trended away from cutting off the energy in the SW it has trended towards it. If it wasn't the Euro I wouldn't be worried, but it's 5 day verification scores are great, and we hit 5 days out tomorrow.
  22. Another couple hours before I'll say for sure (waiting on Euro and EPS) but so far so good. GFS, CMC, and UKMET all show snow in N GA which means our threat is still alive, and that's all we are hoping for at this range.
  23. Lol, the moisture may be far less and the temps closer to borderline but the setup is similar. Shows the potential at least if everything goes right, probably why there has been so many high outliers on the ensembles. If (big if) we get cold enough and a true gulf fire hose goes off like in 2017 then it could be a bigger event like some individual ensemble members have showed.
  24. Setup is similar to December 2017 I think. Not really any surface based low pressure, but a stalled boundary to the south and ample SW flow out of the gulf over running the cold air. We need the boundary to get far enough to deliver our cold air but not too far as to suppress our moisture. It's gonna be a close call as of now, but the right ingredients are all on the board right now and that's all we can hope for.
  25. Yeah just looking at the soundings, its definitely borderline but it's definitely all snow for the majority of the event, possible turning to sleet or rain at the end. 850's are in the -4 range the whole storm here, which likely means the surface is too warm because we just saw the same thing this past weekend. Super cold 850's plus snow usually results in that cold air being pulled down to the surface. Now the 925's do go above freezing at the end, but there are many areas up here most likely including you that don't have a 925 layer because your elevation sits above it.
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