Jump to content

KingOfTheMountains

Moderator
  • Content Count

    943
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    15

Posts posted by KingOfTheMountains


  1. 1 minute ago, Shannon said:

    Like you said I believe earlier or someone said... like to to see what the NAM shows in range. Not quite there yet. 

    Yeah with the pattern so progressive and multiple pieces of energy to try and pinpoint, it's no surprise the models are struggling a bit and doing a lot of back and forth. Hi Res modeling may help sort through the mess and see some of the more subtle features that may or may not impact the track of our shortwaves.


  2. I hope we can get it to trend back but I'm certainly not holding my breath. Over running events like this are pretty much my favorite type of Southern snow system. Don't have to deal with those pesky warm noses that we get in the big LP storms, and they almost always over perform. GEFS certainly didn't slam the door, but we're running out of time for big changes. Small adjustments more likely. 


  3. It's too fast with the northern stream energy pushing through and clearing things out. There are 2 ways to get what we want. Either the southern stream energy out west needs to quit lagging behind or the northern stream energy needs to slow down/dig further SW. Both ways would help pump heights a bit in the SE and establish our WSW flow off the pacific/gulf. As is right now, by 7 AM Thursday mid-level winds north of Augusta flip WNW and shutoff the moisture transport. 


  4. 2 hours ago, LHarkins913 said:

    Possible to “lose” the storm in the mid range like last weekend and then find it again? 

    Definitely, and it actually happens quite a bit. Remains to be seen if we can get that lucky this time. 


  5. 3 minutes ago, LoveSnow said:

    I kinda had a feeling that was you....... I don’t see why you have a confidence below 10% when these models could easily change back to showing the goods

    My confidence was never higher than 10-15% anyway because according to the ensembles there were still way too many solutions on the board. My confidence will go up or down based on how things play out as we go forward. To be fair, my confidence wouldn't be any higher than 20-30% even if everything looked perfect right now simply because it's too far out. 


  6. 5 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    It is nice to see both ensembles showing something though, I don't mean to be a scrooge. 🙂 I just want to see more agreement between models and more run to run agreement before I start getting too excited. 

    This is the exact point that I'm not good enough at saying all the time. I enjoy analyzing modeled scenarios, and that can sometimes come across as confidence in them being right. As I said earlier, my overall confidence in this event has probably come down slightly because of the Euro suite backing off. My confidence is in the 10-20% range at this point. The potential setup is great for snow somewhere in the SE. With a strong cold HP to the north and a SE ridge below, that pinch point between those 2 features is hair trigger sensitive to any energy at all moving along the boundary. But that setup has to actually come to fruition, which is where my confidence drops because the models are still all over the place in that regard. 


  7. Hard not to like the look on the GFS today though. Fairly potent upper level moisture with connections all the way back in the tropical pacific.

    Would love to see this setup on the short term models that can actually pick up the upslope enhancement up here in the mountains. 

    gfs-deterministic-conus-rh700-2178400.png


  8. 2 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Specifics, while they might be exciting, are never reality this far out. 

    Yeah, I probably should've noted that in my post lol. I was speaking specifically off of the scenario that the GFS and Canadian models are showing today. 

    • Like 1

  9. 4 hours ago, LHarkins913 said:

    Mostly a N Ga storm? I know it’s wayyyy to far out for estimates like THAT, but I notice the runs seem to leave out NW metro (Paulding) ... 

    So I actually wanna take back what I said earlier to this question. My impulse is always to say yes to this question because our climatology says that is usually the case. But given that this could actually be a rates driven event, further south could actually be a better spot. 850 temps look very cold region wide with a very shallow warm boundary. Anywhere that gets heavy enough moisture should be able to drive that cold air to the ground and temps fall to around freezing. A lot like what was seen further east this past weekend where the temps warmed quite a bit before dropping again once the heavier snow moved in.

    Therefore there could actually be a sweet spot somewhere south of the mountains that has the right over lap of cold enough temps and heavy rates. 

    • Like 1

  10. 10 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

    EPS looks awful compared to yesterday 😩

    Very small differences are making up the differences we are seeing in the models. Things actually moved into better agreement as far as placement of features. Differences in the strengths and timing are causing differences in the amount of moisture transport we see aloft. CMC, UKMET, and GFS are the most aggressive with setting up moisture transport off the pacific, while ECMWF and ICON are the least aggressive. Still in the game nearing 5 days out is the most important part. 

    • Like 1

  11. So with the 12z models now done, I'd say that my confidence has certainly went down from yesterday but I'm far from throwing in the towel. The strangest part of that is that there are actually more models on board today, but when the king speaks you better listen lol. 

    • Like 1

  12. 6 minutes ago, Preston said:

    I wouldn't give up on things just yet. It's not unusual for these systems to be lost and regained. I would much rather be in this spot have to work against the suppression that trying to get the system to trend south. It will be interesting to see if others models start jumping on board with the suppression idea though. 

    Yeah, and this is such a fickle setup it's gonna be hard to pin down for a while. It's not like we've actually got a discrete surface based LP for the models to track. Instead it's a thermal gradient pattern with just little bits of energy running along the boundary. May need to wait for higher resolution models to have a good feel for it. 

    • Like 2

  13. 2 minutes ago, LHarkins913 said:

    Mostly a N Ga storm? I know it’s wayyyy to far out for estimates like THAT, but I notice the runs seem to leave out NW metro (Paulding) ... 

    For now I'd say yeah more than likely, but 850s are very cold so could be some ptype concerns even down there. But really it's too far out for that level of detail yet. 

    • Like 1

  14. 6 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Flat

    Snap346063776.thumb.png.09ac0c2300883bf3d918a41a4dfc74d6.png

    GFS is fairly flat too, but it keys in on different parts of the vort diving down and weakens the SW portion quickly. With a thermal gradient in place the atmosphere is hair trigger sensitive to any well placed energy, so flat can still work, but things have to be perfect. 


  15. 1 minute ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

    Well dang 

    Not over yet. Just our typical roller coaster ride of long range model watching. Odd to say the least to see every model trend towards the Euro only for the Euro to drop it. Features on the GFS and Euro are actually fairly well lined up, but they have different ideas about the strengths of said features. More waiting I'm afraid. 

    • Like 1

  16. Looks like it's gonna stay suppressed and dry. Amazing that as all the other guidance trended away from cutting off the energy in the SW it has trended towards it. If it wasn't the Euro I wouldn't be worried, but it's 5 day verification scores are great, and we hit 5 days out tomorrow. 


  17. 5 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

    How are we feeling today? I’ve been away not looking at models any new trends?

    Another couple hours before I'll say for sure (waiting on Euro and EPS) but so far so good. GFS, CMC, and UKMET all show snow in N GA which means our threat is still alive, and that's all we are hoping for at this range. 

    • Like 3

  18. 1 minute ago, Preston said:

    Don't make me feel all fuzzy inside talking about December 2017 like that 🤣 but you are right it is a similar setup.

    Lol, the moisture may be far less and the temps closer to borderline but the setup is similar. Shows the potential at least if everything goes right, probably why there has been so many high outliers on the ensembles. If (big if) we get cold enough and a true gulf fire hose goes off like in 2017 then it could be a bigger event like some individual ensemble members have showed. 

    • Like 1

  19. Just now, Preston said:

    I'm interested in what the EURO has to say about it with this run that just started. It's still too far out to put much stock in amounts or anything but I am beginning to like the setup that we have going mid-late next week. WPC has the North Georgia mountains in the 10-30% range for probability of exceeding 0.25" liquid equivalent of snow/sleet which basically translates to winter storm warning criteria for our area.  

    Setup is similar to December 2017 I think. Not really any surface based low pressure, but a stalled boundary to the south and ample SW flow out of the gulf over running the cold air. We need the boundary to get far enough to deliver our cold air but not too far as to suppress our moisture. It's gonna be a close call as of now, but the right ingredients are all on the board right now and that's all we can hope for. 

    • Like 1

  20. 1 hour ago, Preston said:

    GFS is holding out hope for a storm next week!

    Yeah just looking at the soundings, its definitely borderline but it's definitely all snow for the majority of the event, possible turning to sleet or rain at the end. 850's are in the -4 range the whole storm here, which likely means the surface is too warm because we just saw the same thing this past weekend. Super cold 850's plus snow usually results in that cold air being pulled down to the surface. Now the 925's do go above freezing at the end, but there are many areas up here most likely including you that don't have a 925 layer because your elevation sits above it. 

    • Like 1

  21. And the Euro backs off, so we still sit at square 1. Definitely a threat window, but no real consistency or agreement among models to begin tracking anything truly, and thus we wait.

    FWIW with last weekends snow the models trended away from anything significant through the medium range before coming back inside day 3. Not saying that's gonna happen, just that it's not "game over" just because the models lose it for a while. 


  22. 5 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

    It is getting exciting in here!!

    Still a long ways to go, but this is certainly the most concrete threat we've seen from this far out this winter. I am thoroughly intrigued, but won't let myself get excited until inside 5 days at the earliest. Too many heartbreaks in the past lol

×
×
  • Create New...