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KingOfTheMountains

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Everything posted by KingOfTheMountains

  1. Still a long ways to go, but this is certainly the most concrete threat we've seen from this far out this winter. I am thoroughly intrigued, but won't let myself get excited until inside 5 days at the earliest. Too many heartbreaks in the past lol
  2. GFS definitely took a big step toward the Euro. Hopefully the Euro holds serve tonight.
  3. Oh okay, this is what it showed from the run around 2 today. It doesn't run again for another few hours.
  4. Not even worth the post, there's literally nothing there. GFS is cutting off our "target" piece of energy over the SW US and leaving it behind/delaying it so its dry during our window of cold temps.
  5. Crazy enough it was actually first. 2 days ago it showed this but then it went away from it.
  6. Absolutely, and no better model suite to have in your corner than the ECMWF. It's 5 day verification scores have been ridiculously good this winter. If things start to converge on a good solution through Sunday, I'll start getting very excited.
  7. Hey no harm in keeping an eye on them, it's just that the run to run changes can be so large at this range that it can be hard to actually "track" anything.
  8. Still there on the Euro suite. GFS says no but seems to be an outlier among other guidance right now on leaving the energy behind out west. At this range it's just a wait and see game. See how things go over the weekend, and by Monday we should know if we're gonna be tracking for real next week.
  9. Guess there is a reason they say go big OR go home, cause there's gonna be a lot of people on those interstates not going home if it goes that big lol.
  10. Basically a Southeast snow-apocalypse with foot plus snows hitting all the major cities lol.
  11. Oh definitely! This threat is very real, unlike some we've seen at day 10+ this year. Still might turn sour, as it's a tough pattern to score in. But hey, this past weekend worked out so well its got me feeling optimistic lol.
  12. Another good Euro run. I'd sign off on that exact event right now if I could. Don't wanna get too greedy hoping for a big one.
  13. It's amazing to me that in the middle of this we keep getting decent short-lived cold shots. Nothing severe, but cold enough for winter weather at least.
  14. And ECMWF Ensemble starting to bark a little. As always a needle will need to be threaded but there is definitely a window of potential there.
  15. Wow... Deep south special during our target window on tonight's Euro. That's the look I wanna see at a week out. That shortwave not getting cutoff in the SW will be the key.
  16. I wonder what the NAM will say about the Sunday morning potential as we get into its range? It certainly earned some respect with this last storm and the HRRR did awful.
  17. Yeah I think the window is there for some cold temps with those HP's consistently being modeled to drop in. Now whether we get a storm to line up during that window will depend on the height field out west and the handling of the short wave.
  18. So FWIW I do think the period around the 19th-21st has some potential for winter weather. Now when I say that I'm saying that instead of our normal 0% chance, I think we have like a 10% chance right now. We can hope the chances improve as we get closer, but from this range there are always more ways it can go wrong than go right.
  19. For me it comes down to either that 2014 storm or January 2011 as my favorite storm of the past 20 years. I loved 2011 cause it was all snow start to finish and ended up with right at a foot here. 2014 was awesome though because of that 1-2 punch of back to back waves. It would probably definitely be my favorite if not for the massive dry slot leading to a forecast bust on amounts.
  20. That's crazy. Nearly got to 50 with full sunshine up here in the mountains today. Nonetheless, shaded back roads are still forcing a delay for schools here tomorrow.
  21. Man this fog is super thick. Almost more of a mist than a fog at times. Down to 27 degrees I'm sure this will coat the trees up nice by morning.
  22. Oh I know, mostly tongue in cheek. But no doubting GSP really dropped the ball on preparing the public in comparison to Atlanta. All the models were completely locked in by 12z yesterday for the mountains, and their forecast was in complete denial of all the guidance.
  23. So I had to drive down to Habersham earlier and have since made a much longer than normal trip back home. The Turnerville area in Northern Habersham County right before you go down the hill into Tallulah falls probably had the most I saw along the way, easily in the 5-6+ range. And while we were sitting there in Turnerville stuck waiting on the road to reopen, after an 18-wheeler wrecked, saw some of the heaviest rates I've seen before. Truly convective snow band right in that area, couldn't see but 4-5 cars ahead. Right here in Tiger it's sitting around 4 inches with light snow still falling. Not bad considering 12 hours ago the forecast was 0 accumulation and mostly rain lol.
  24. A friend sent me this pic from Hiawassee. Looks like main road is icing up pretty bad.
  25. Temp has leveled off now and dropped ever so slightly at the last update. 28.9/25.
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