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KingOfTheMountains

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Everything posted by KingOfTheMountains

  1. I saw that! The trends since this time yesterday have pushed the snow a whole lot further south and west. I think it's just picking up on how cold the upper levels are going to be, that even with a warm boundary layer that far south it could still be mostly or all snow. Now accumulations could be tough, definitely no travel concerns in the metro.
  2. GEFS is up again and pushes snow further south and westward. The run to run trend on the GEFS has been impressive. Going from this at 12z yesterday. To this at 12z today. The changes are self evident. Barring last minute changes, this one looks legit. Nothing huge, but given how this winter has gone, I'll happily accept this.
  3. So here's a glimpse at what all the models that are through their 12z update are showing. Euro suite and GFS Ensemble will be a little later. GFS Canadian Experimental HRRR NAM 3km WRF Hi-Res Canadian SREF Mean The amounts vary by some degree but a consensus is forming on there being measurable snowfall over much of North Georgia tomorrow morning. GFS and Euro ensembles have both been trending upwards for a few runs in a row now as well. Blairsville GEFS mean at 6z was around an inch and a half with 8 out of 20 members being 2 inch plus and only 3 below an inch.
  4. All short range models are showing snow for tomorrow. West GA unfortunately may get left out. Most models it doesn't really get its act together until getting further east. Thing's could change though.
  5. Good thing. I've still got a forecast for mid 40s and rain with no snow accumulation with not a single model showing that.
  6. Looks to me like the majority of short range guidance is starting to form a consensus. I expect forecast packages from the NWS to change drastically this afternoon for the NE part of the state.
  7. Some of the mountains here in the county looked to have picked up a nice bit but it seems completely random which ones did and which ones didn't.
  8. Got a small dusting this morning on elevated surfaces, but once the wind started cranking nothing would lay anymore.
  9. Got up for a glass of water and looked out to find a mix of sleet and flurries falling. Still 44 degrees but I guess the upper air temps must be crashing hard.
  10. GFS has been doing that for a few runs now. It has a cold bias so idk how much to believe it. But the EPS has had a pretty significant warm bias this winter so it wouldn't surprise me if things end up not quite as dire as they looked last week.
  11. Up to around 5.5 inches of rain since yesterday. Schools just got delayed here for tomorrow. Too many roads washed out/flooded and they don’t want bus drivers going out in the dark tomorrow morning and potentially missing something.
  12. 3km NAM for wrap around of the current exiting system. 3km NAM for the Saturday system. And how it all plays out on radar. This starts at 11 pm tonight and runs through Saturday night. I'm not willing to say that I think it's right. I'm just saying that I hope it is lol
  13. Loving the NAM right now for this weekend. I would pay to see that verify lol
  14. Nearing 4 inches storm total already. We really need it to dry out here soon but that doesn't appear to be in the cards.
  15. It is. But from what I've read this event isn't going to be strong enough to really hurt the very healthy vortex, and that it will rebound quickly.
  16. NAM comes back around at 0z. Snow dreams are still alive for Saturday! I'm holding on to this hope as long as i can cause winter may be over after this weekend lol
  17. Sleep as normal. Just always have a way to receive warnings at night. That advice has nothing to do with my expectations, just simply that everyone should have a way to receive warnings at all times.
  18. NAM just threw in the towel... Sucks, it's so close to being a nice snow storm but unfortunately it appears I was right about it being boom or bust with almost no room for error in between. And the GFS is barely hanging on with a dusting. And frankly if onset is that late, I'd bet on rain. Still time to trend back towards us, but not a whole lot.
  19. EPS continues to back off on snow totals. It’s a shame if this ends up being too strung out to deliver a good slug of moisture cause this is a legitimate window at potentially the biggest snow of the winter for the mountains, where temps would not be an issue as long as arrival timing was good.
  20. Another step back in the right direction from last night's run, but still nowhere close to 12z yesterday. Actually has colder antecedent temperatures than the big run yesterday, but just doesn't have any heavy precip move in to lock those temps in. 12z yesterday had half inch+ liquid in some places where now max is .15 if you're lucky. Hopefully it trends back a little more amped up as we move forward.
  21. The only thing that gives me slightly higher confidence than normal is that the Euro initially led the way with this system. Yes it lost it, but it does that sometimes in the medium range. The next 2-3 model cycles will be critical in seeing if the Euro comes back around. If not, then I'd expect to see the GFS start to cave towards it. Edit: Also, the EPS suite has decreased support in snow not because of temps but that more members have the system getting sheared out. EPS has actually been trending colder for Saturday morning which is encouraging given its general lack of cold bias.
  22. Glad to see the Euro took a step back towards showing some snow by the wave on Saturday. It's 12z run yesterday was perfection but then immediately abandoned the notion at 0z. GEFS holding serve on 2+ inches for the mountains but I felt much better having the Euro products in my corner.
  23. Increase in rainfall from 12z to 0z on Euro really stuck out. Now widespread 6 inches along the southern edge of the Mtns with isolated 7+. NWS GSP mentioned all time high precipitable water values showing up on models! Steep terrain landslide/debris flow threat is very real over the next few days.
  24. GFS and GEFS continued to improve with regards to snow Saturday but Euro took a big step back. So, I’ll stay in a holding pattern for now and temper excitement. The potential is very real, but it’s gonna take threading a needle. Might be a boom or bust scenario with very little margin for error in between. Could be 2-6 inches in the mtns or it could be nothing.
  25. As of now I’d definitely say yes. As always be weather aware, in case of any changes over the next 18-24 hours, and have a way to receive weather warnings. Otherwise no reason to treat it as anything to worry about.
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