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Posts posted by Nic

  1. Also, just excited to share with this community of weather geeks, I'll be going to Penn State this fall to get an undergraduate Certificate in weather forecasting! Can't wait to understand weather on a much deeper level!

    • Like 1

  2. Steve, do you think this cluster of storms about to move through my area (Just north of Blue Ridge) will impact the severe potential later with the possible QLCS? Short term models don't seem like they're picking up on that system very well. Do you also think there is even a chance it digs south enough to clip extreme N. GA?

  3. 29 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

    Sorry... just really hate nighttime stuff... 

    I doubt it, but any chance of the watch being cancelled early?

    Not at this time. It's still truckin'

  4. 3 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

    Ok, are the outlooks drunk today? They are confusing me.

    There is less confidence there will be any severe weather so the simply reduced the threat level on the Outlook. Good news for us!

    • Like 1

  5. 2 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Right now, and this will change as we get closer, between noon and midnight. Could be a little later for some people.

    That's not a good sign. We've been "lucky" to miss peak heating for the last few severe events, this one finally looks to get us during the day instead of 2am. At least for my location.

    • Like 2

  6. Won't all the rain ahead of the main event work to stabilize the environment therefore reducing the CAPE which would choke off the main ingredients for a severe outbreak, especially in North Georgia where it will also be in the middle of the night so any diurnal energy would be gone, too. Or is something else going to feed the severe threat into the night?

    • Like 1

  7. 1 hour ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

    Two images, I'll do one at a time. 

    This is the NAM 3km high resolution model and this is the Significant Tornado Parameter (STP and also known as "SigTor"), and it covers the period from 4 AM Sunday through 2 AM Monday. Right now this is as far out as the model goes. The next image uses the same time frame from the same model.


    That is frightening to say the least. I started thinking about how to prepare to respond to help a community nearby if impacted by a tornado, but then we have to worry about Covid-19. This isn't going to play out well. 

    • Sad 1

  8. Almost every time over the past few weeks the system has over achieved and arrived earlier than most short models indicated, especially with both recent severe systems. Also, even with the NAM rolling back a smidge, some of the others have grown. If I were a betting man, I would risk saying I think this system will over achieve. I'm in Blue Ridge, so obviously in a higher elevation so I can't speak for everyone. But I think 2-4 inches is likely for us. This reminds me a lot of two years ago like everyone else has mentioned, where we got 10 inches. I don't think THAT is going to happen, but I do believe most of us will wake up like Christmas morning tomorrow. Here's to hoping!

    • Like 1

  9. 1 hour ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

    Looks to me like the majority of short range guidance is starting to form a consensus. I expect forecast packages from the NWS to change drastically this afternoon for the NE part of the state. 

    How much snow you think? Looked to be darker blue on the NAM.

    • Like 1

  10. 3 hours ago, Mevarts said:

    My 8 year old loves all things weather.  He’s wearing his favorite gift from Christmas! He followed yesterday’s events all day until the weather got here - and then he was hiding under a blanket, lol.  He’s a meteorologist in progress, ha ha!


    Where did you get that shirt? I want one lol

  11. The line chased us back home from Gadsden, I underestimated the speed at which the line was moving and saw some considerable wind damage along the way. Clocked winds at over 70 at one point, as we were trying to get out of the core. That was a helluva QLCS! Back home safe in Blue Ridge.

    • Like 1

  12. I've finally got a VERY fine misting snow north of Blue Ridge by about 3 miles from what hasn't finally dried up before it got here. The Hi Res is looking more and more accurate. Fannin county is cursed, dries right up lol grrr. They did just release a 2 hour delay for the schools in the morning here.

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