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Nic

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Everything posted by Nic

  1. Feed me ensembles! Nom nom nom
  2. Is that a typo for October 31st?
  3. If it's anything like the last powerful cold front we had where the temps dropped 15 degrees in like 30 minutes, I say yes. That was a VERY fast transition, just wrong timing. Seems like this front will also be robust. Really hoping this neutral El Nino/La Nina pattern year will bring us the winter we got robbed of last year.
  4. Ahh thank you for the clarification. That explains as to why I was scratching my head lol. Hoping for snow but my wife is not! lol
  5. I'm a little confused on the upcoming events. We're looking at a cold chasing rain event possibly in North GA Monday night into Tuesday, and then potentially watching a low tracking low possibly bring a "storm" late next week? Have I got this correct on what we're watching? Two separate events?
  6. Hoping for a turn north! More rain, the better!
  7. May have had a brief spin up, funnel west of Blue Ridge. Had some power flashes as it peaked in tightness. I can't share the velocity gif I captured, file too large.
  8. 12:25am and man, there are numerous strong tornadoes crossing over into Alabama right now... I really hope this weakens before it gets to our area. Storms have not initiated near the Gulf, so no cut off of energy yet...
  9. That's exactly what I see. The ingredients are ripe during that exact timing...peak day time heating. I don't think the morning band will be too strong for us here in Blue Ridge, but that second one just may be. Luckily, much less of a tornado threat with that line.
  10. No real threat at this time in my unprofessional opinion
  11. Atlanta holding out on the afternoon AFD?
  12. This line of convection to our west doesn't look like it's playing around....
  13. Helicity at about 2am Saturday night looks decent. Hopefully, instability stays to a minimum so this thing doesn't continue to be a widespread severe threat into the overnight hours of Saturday like it most likely will be to our west. All the rain/cloud cover leading up to Saturday night will be detrimental in how this plays out, hopefully as mentioned limiting instability. With shear being so healthy though, I don't think we're out of the woods yet.
  14. Good morning! We woke up to grim words again from the SPC for this weekend. Round 2 here we go. When can I expect a thread for that if at all?
  15. 3km NAM finally generated lol Looks to me N GA could get in it a little bit at least. Perimeters not quite as impressive as farther south into central GA but CAPE looks doable and if we get any sun through the clouds creating some decent instability...definitely worth watching. Not going to be able to sleep tonight lol.
  16. I will be traveling down there tomorrow, I'll share photo's and information as I obtain it.
  17. NWS Peachtree " Long term /Sunday through Friday/... Long term portion in good shape loaded in new data for temps, dewpoint and sky but only tweaks made to pops/wx including for the active Sunday timeframe. Still looking like an active latter half of the weekend as low pressure tracks across north central Georgia. Some subtle differences in the GFS and European model (ecmwf) in exact placement of the low but anticipate enough instability now to create some issues fro central Georgia and portions of north as well up to i20. Namnest has in excess of 1000 j/kg of cape which would be more than enough to take advantage of the shear in place. There will be plenty of rain ahead of the main line so a little skeptical we will get values that high but even 500-750 j/kg may be enough in this situation. Models indicate up to 5 for the sigtor which even if you take half to account for model bias, would be enough to get some isolated but potentially significant activity to develop Sunday afternoon into the evening hours. Activity will be moving quickly but still a quick burst of heavy rain given soil conditions could produce some flash flooding and will also be a concern. Have updated the latest severe weather potential statement to include tornado potential and continue mentioning flood threat as well as damaging winds. Remainder of the extended in tact and as mentioned, only minimal changes planned.
  18. Just spoke with forecast meteorologist, AFD coming out soon. They are sending out partner emails, which is a good sign they're getting more confident
  19. Not yet, but I imagine they will this evening.
  20. Rivers are getting pretty stressed. Are we less worried about the severe threat tomorrow for NW Georgia? Looks like the loss of daytime heating and instability will limit the longevity of these storms moving into the overnight hours which is about the time the system would reach us. Although, Mesocyclones with bowing structures are also known to surprise sometimes with endurance. What are your thoughts?
  21. SPC Day 4 outlook is interesting. Some concern with the seriousness of their wording. We'll have to watch that, especially if it shifts farther east.
  22. If it's not going to snow, at least it's enjoyable weather. Could be 40's and rain lol
  23. HRRR with the good stuff for everyone! 11 hours and not done running. But hey-oh!
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