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    • Any thoughts Steve on soon to be Cristobal?  Strength, direction ?  I was just wondering if it meanders a few more hours than predicted would that push it more Nward?
    • A variety of solutions between the Euro ensemble members. These depict normalized MSLP anomalies and they give a good visual of the strength of the low pressure area compared to normal pressures. 
    • Good morning and welcome to "my" summer! 🙂 I say "mine" because most people follow the astronomical date which is June the 20th this year, but I just have to be different. 🤪 Meteorological seasons make it easier to manage weather data because the dates are always constant unlike astronomical seasons.  We have some high clouds around this morning but we should still end up with a mostly sunny day with breezy conditions, and that weather will continue through most of the day on Wednesday. After that, rain returns to the forecast and what we see later in the week may partially depend on what disturbance 93L decides to do. Here's a look at the area of disturbed weather over Central America this morning. cag.mp4   National Hurricane Center     Looking at the Euro probability maps, we see these chance for a tropical depression.   This for a tropical storm   And this for a hurricane   The overnight Euro ensemble run appears to have a majority of its members bringing the storm into the Gulf as a hurricane.   While other models look like this   Here's a spaghettio plot of the low pressure centers from the Euro ensembles.  spaghettios.mp4   Most solutions take this system over LA/TX and dissipate it there. In that scenario we would likely see and influx of moisture off the Atlantic and we as the Gulf and increase our rain chances and all of this depends on how long 93L decides to wander around in the Gulf.  You still have 3 days of nice weather before any rain returns, so get out and make the best of it while you can! Have a great Monday!      
    • Good morning! Another beautiful day is in store for today and another one after that, and after that and.... well, you get it. 🙂 As you can see from this infrared satellite image, the southeast is relatively clear this morning as we're caught in the NW flow around an upper level low to the north and a ridge over the central part of the country. Further south over central America and Mexico is the CAG or Central American Gyre that may spawn a tropical system for the Gulf of Mexico. If you are inquisitive and want to learn more, I have several links from Philippe Papin (Philippe is from our part of the world here in the southeast) as he is the "expert" on these systems. A Climatology of Central American Gyres Philippe's Final Thesis   This mornings Euro ensemble run has a lot of members that indicate a potential hurricane (red lines) and the number of members showing this have been going up daily. It's too early to tell what if any effect this will have on our weather right now, but it's the only real piece of weather to talk about. 😊 So for us right now, it looks pretty much like this.   Until our tropical system decides to make a move, that's about it.  Have a GREAT Sunday! 🙂  
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