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    • MD 1985 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS Mesoscale Discussion 1985 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Areas affected...Portions of the southern and central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191948Z - 192215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong/gusty winds and large hail may occur on an isolated basis with storms this afternoon and early evening. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time. DISCUSSION...Weak low-level convergence along a surface trough combined with modest large-scale ascent associated with a subtle shortwave trough over NM has encouraged recent convective development across parts of the southern and central High Plains. Low-level moisture increases with eastward extent across this region, with mid 50s to mid 60s surface dewpoints present. An EML plume extends across this area from higher terrain to the west, and MLCAPE of 1000-2000+ J/kg has developed along/east of the surface trough from southern NE into eastern CO/western KS, far eastern NM, and the TX/OK Panhandles. The main limiting factor that should keep the overall severe threat fairly isolated remains modest low/mid-level winds. Only about 25-30 kt of effective bulk shear will be present across the warm sector through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening. This marginal shear will likely promote occasional storm organization, with some large hail and strong/gusty winds possible as storms spread slowly eastward and potentially grow upscale into one or more small clusters. This isolated severe threat is expected to wane this evening with eastward extent across the southern/central High Plains as convective inhibition increases with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Hart.. 09/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 34330329 36820310 39260251 39400251 40870170 40690051 40020022 38220013 35850026 34080100 33350164 33350261 33590303 34330329 Read more View the full article
    • Rip Current Statement issued September 19 at 3:21PM EDT until September 20 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
    • Rip Current Statement issued September 19 at 12:57PM EDT until September 19 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
    • Rip Current Statement issued September 19 at 10:31AM EDT until September 19 at 8:00PM EDT by NWS View the full article
    • MD 1984 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA Mesoscale Discussion 1984 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0911 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Areas affected...extreme southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191411Z - 191615Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Threat for isolated tornadoes should persist through the morning and possibly into the early afternoon from extreme southeast TX into southwest LA. The spatial extent of threat is expected to remain small, but trends are being monitored. DISCUSSION...As of mid morning a warm front extends from near the southwest LA coast northwestward to a surface low in southeast TX. These features are associated with tropical depression Imelda that is located over east TX and moving very slowly north at around 5 mph. Storms continue developing along a convergence band over southeast TX with more discrete mini supercells developing ahead of the line moving northward onto the southwest LA coast. The greatest potential for a few brief tornadoes will be as these mini supercells move north and interact with the warm front across southwest LA where 0-1 km storm relative helicity ranges from 150-250 m2/s2. The spatial extent of the threat area is expected to remain limited, but some of these storms might eventually affect the city of Lake Charles. ..Dial/Hart.. 09/19/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH... LAT...LON 30299331 29839283 29569301 29829407 30419388 30299331 Read more View the full article
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