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  2. I also like looking at the northern hemisphere 500 mb anomaly pattern for clues.
  3. 500 mb is the best for the general pattern. Once that's good I try to dig down a little further. I really like watching the trends in the models and Weatherbell makes it easy to go back several runs to check it out. At this distance, the teleconnections are not necessarily that reliable, so I take those with a grain of salt.
  4. Okay, good to learn. Outside of 500 mbar I don't really know the best tools for medium range pattern recognition. I've always looked at thicknesses for ptypes when an event is on us but never really looked at them in the longer range. Always good to add more tools, to waste more time looking at models with lol
  5. Current look at Georgia, the front has passed most of north Georgia, These are surface winds and dewpoints and 500 mb isobars.
  6. You are correct. I was just looking at the current situation. The rest of it actually looks good. 2 out of 3 blocks and a trough over the east in mid December... I like the general setup.
  7. Am I wrong in saying that with those thickness values, it still indicates a trough in the east, but the signal is kind of muted because of how far out it is and the amount of different solutions? I've never really used them outside of near term, but I could see value in tracking that over time seeing which direction the 540 thickness goes as the possible solutions are narrowed down.
  8. Yesterday
  9. The ULL's still aren't tracking far enough south. At that same time period, the euro ensemble is predicting a decent -AO and -NAO But without the -EPO, we have Pacific air entering the country. Not good. We'll see if this changes.
  10. Looking at the Euro ensemble. it appears that we'll have a decent trough over the US during that period. But right now the thicknesses aren't where we want them to be.
  11. Compare that to the last three ensemble runs, a little more consistent.
  12. And one reason you can't trust those this far out. Here are the last 3 runs of the GFS, same time period, oldest to newest.
  13. Yeah that's the monster gulf low you have been looking for in the 12z GFS today way out in fantasy land! Not that it means anything at this point but it will be interesting if the 18z run and the subsequent days continue with the same general pattern it is hinting at in that time frame. There are some warm days in between now and then as expected but I am encouraged not to see any too concerning signs of the SE Ridge showing up.
  14. 15th-20th shaping up to be our first real window at a region wide threat for the SE. Finally starting to see some 1030+ highs move across with those ULL's. Could be 2-3 storms in that window, we just need 1 to work out. Doesn't seem like too much to ask lol. But we know how things go around here. First things first, let's get the window itself inside 10 days to see if it's even real or just a mirage eternally hanging out at the end of the models.
  15. Speaking of, I was just commenting on the sheer destruction this would cause if realized. Micrograin of salt that far out, but it has been consistent for a week now.
  16. I had some good reflections the other day, so I had to snap some pictures. The ceramic treatment makes the car shine all the time. Can't squeeze anymore wheel and tire back there. 🙂 Here's an After/Before. Yes, I did it backwards. 🙂
  17. Good morning! Hope everyone enjoyed the weather yesterday, because today is not going to be quite as nice. Rain is knocking on our doorstep this morning and it looks like most of the day will be rainy. On the morning map (500 mb winds and isobars/temps) you can see the upper level low that is pushing off to the northeast, and the area of rain that it is generating will continue moving our direction, and by later this evening the whole area will have pushed off to the east. Our rain chances today will be relatively light with 0.5"-1.5" of rain expected across north Georg
  18. Trisha use to work here at the Atlanta office. 🙂
  19. Great weather discussion facilitated by Carolina Weather Group with the newly promoted Trish Palmer the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at the National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg.
  20. Last week
  21. Good morning! This morning we have some crazy eyed face on our map. Does anyone remember "Mr. Bill"? 🙂 This morning, Mr. Bill's left eye upper level low (you are facing Mr. Bill) is our old snow maker that is being pulled back north for recycling, while our next weather maker for Friday (yellow mouth upper level low) is pushing our way. Mr. Bill's right eye is a large area of high pressure (ridge) over the western US. Here's the legend. 🙂 It's hard to be too serious when the weather is nice. 🙂 Pour me some more eggnog! I guess I better let the NWS do the
  22. For a little further down the line. See if we can real one in from a long ways out lol
  23. LOL! The 06z Euro ensemble says a big fat NO.
  24. The GFS was close this morning, I need to go look at the latest.
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