Jump to content
  • Forum Image

Hurricane Dorian (05L)


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 785
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Ok, probably my last post for the night. The 11 pm update will probably show a CAT5 hurricane, we shall see. And if you've followed Cranky, then you know we'll have a much better idea in the morning a

My disclaimer... As always, please refer to the latest official forecast from the National Hurricane Center as well as your local NWS forecast offices. ūüôā¬†I'm here to pass along information from a

Posted Images

Saturday, August 31 - 2:00 AM Update

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...WINDS IN DORIAN REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 72.0W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 72.0 West.  Dorian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and
continue into early next week.
 On this track, the core of Dorian
should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and
central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale
.  Some strengthening is possible today.
Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
105 miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE:  A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days.  These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

053533_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.bf8b86ec3429d0dd8f3312ba03a6a589.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Scariest thing I noticed on the models tonight has been the stall over Grand Bahama and whatever the island to its east is. Other than the GFS, basically every other model has them experiencing eyewall conditions for up to, if not over, 24 hours. The storm may be at its peak intensity at that time also, so I can't even imagine the damage that could cause. Between the two islands, your talking about 70,000+ people... I really hope they have a good evacuation system in place because Cat 4 or maybe even Cat 5 conditions for that long would likely be unsurvivable in a lot of areas. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

This turn needs to be watched

Quote

After 48 hours, the
global models show an erosion of the western portion of the ridge,
which is expected to cause the steering currents to collapse and the
hurricane to slow down considerably by day 3. Later in the period,
the models have again trended to a more significant weakness in the
ridge which allows Dorian to turn northwestward, then northward
near the east coast of Florida.

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Here are the last three Euro runs, oldest to newest. The Euro may be settling down with its track.

Snap346062486.jpg.c671b3995d37142840c065b3ab6e31cb.jpg

Snap346062487.jpg.242068a7700a502141730eba3d7ff221.jpg

Snap346062488.jpg.34a6e94cf5f29a438bee72120982b1d4.jpg

 

HWRF

hwrf-dorian05l-hurricane_panel-7609200.thumb.png.eb39258c42a1412150001fda9cafa237.png

GFS

gfs-georgia-gust_mph-7598400.thumb.png.3850cecde98c9a9f8c50c1e37f85bc30.png

 

The ICON still brings it over southern FL and into the Gulf

icon-conus-vort500_z500-7501200.thumb.png.d2217659e44ec8ea36ddec3addf712e9.png

So the general consensus (for now) is up the coast of FL with a possible turn northwest at some point, but most show a landfall in SC. Plenty of time to get that part figured out, but folks in FL need to be taking their actions now.

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Who's Online   0 Members, 0 Anonymous, 12 Guests (See full list)

    There are no registered users currently online




√ó
√ó
  • Create New...