Jump to content
  • Forum Image

Hurricane Dorian (05L)


Recommended Posts

Sunday, September 1 - Special Update

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
930 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE ABACO ISLANDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and
now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).

The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching
the Abaco Islands.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Residents
there should take immediate shelter.  Do not venture into the eye if
it passes over your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 200 mph
- Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas.
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.73 INCHES

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 785
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Ok, probably my last post for the night. The 11 pm update will probably show a CAT5 hurricane, we shall see. And if you've followed Cranky, then you know we'll have a much better idea in the morning a

My disclaimer... As always, please refer to the latest official forecast from the National Hurricane Center as well as your local NWS forecast offices. 🙂 I'm here to pass along information from a

Posted Images

  • Educator
16 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

And we have on the scene reporting... crazy people that can't be helped at this point. Good luck my friend, you're going to need it. 

 

I get the thrill of the chase but I don’t know about stranding myself on an island with a CAT 5...

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Educator
1 minute ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

If at 8:17 AM it was scary, think what it's like right now. And in just a little while he going to be in the eyewall for hours. If he makes it.

Current Miami radar

 

I don’t know how he makes it unfortunately... gust up to 200 now... dude is screwed. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

This is getting serious very quickly folks. 

The center of Dorian is approximately 184 nm from Delray Beach Florida. Dorian has been moving due west at 8 mph like a steamroller, with no sign at the moment of slowing down. That same speed and motion would bring the center of Dorian to the coastline in 23 hours. Because no one can accurately predict what that beast like storm is going to do right now, evacuations have to take place, no time left to wait. 

Look at this:

 

I have VERY serious concerns at the moment for the Florida coast. People need to get out while they can, this is going beyond just dangerous. 

73347285_20190901_1353_kamx_BR_0.5.thumb.png.c64461001ddf302469968ae6dc47a4ae.png

Snap346062532.thumb.jpg.248e45c4c59847ba20a6e6db015673eb.jpg

Link to post
Share on other sites

I told my wife that they had measured 221 mph wind gust. She said "People better start getting out now, they can't drive that fast to get away... even with all the lanes open" 🙂 I was rolling on the floor. 🤣 No... she actually teaches science so she's not quite as dumb as she seems. 🙂 

  • Haha 4
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Based on some of the latest recon numbers this storm is starting to get into some rarified territory when it comes to Atlantic storms. We've went from unsure if this thing would even survive the Caribbean to having what may be one of the strongest Atlantic Hurricanes in history. 

And again, no ERC so far, just shear brute strength is getting it done. We don't have long before the forward speed is going to get Dorian too close to stop in time. I guess I could get a rough idea of say how a 1 mph drop in forward speed each hour (or two) would impact arrival times at the coast. Might be interesting to see. But slowing down isn't the only issue. It may not start turning until it stops, but we just don't know. So if it takes 8 hours to stop... the coast is already feeling the effects. 

I don't know. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

And again, no ERC so far, just shear brute strength is getting it done. We don't have long before the forward speed is going to get Dorian too close to stop in time. I guess I could get a rough idea of say how a 1 mph drop in forward speed each hour (or two) would impact arrival times at the coast. Might be interesting to see. But slowing down isn't the only issue. It may not start turning until it stops, but we just don't know. So if it takes 8 hours to stop... the coast is already feeling the effects. 

I don't know. 

This was always the rub for me. The stop seems too sudden. Even if steering currents drop off. Moving at 8 mph a storm of this magnitude has a lot of its own momentum to burn off before its dead in the water. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, KingOfTheMountains said:

This was always the rub for me. The stop seems too sudden. Even if steering currents drop off. Moving at 8 mph a storm of this magnitude has a lot of its own momentum to burn off before its dead in the water. 

Exactly. Think of all of that mass spinning inside that thing. And not just wind, the water mass too. 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.




×
×
  • Create New...