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Hurricane Dorian (05L)


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Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE NEAR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ST. THOMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM W OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
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Ok, probably my last post for the night. The 11 pm update will probably show a CAT5 hurricane, we shall see. And if you've followed Cranky, then you know we'll have a much better idea in the morning a

My disclaimer... As always, please refer to the latest official forecast from the National Hurricane Center as well as your local NWS forecast offices. ūüôā¬†I'm here to pass along information from a

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Wednesday August 28, 2019 2 PM Update

We now have Hurricane Dorian

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
200 PM AST Wed Aug 28 2019

...DORIAN BECOMES A HURRICANE NEAR ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...
...MULTIPLE OBSERVATIONS OF HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN ST. THOMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 65.0W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM W OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Dominican Republic has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Vieques and Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to
12 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 65.0 West. Dorian is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or two
. On this track, Dorian
should continue to move near or over the U.S. and British Virgin
Islands this afternoon and then move over the open Atlantic well
east of the southeastern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Dorian is forecast to continue strengthening
during the next few days over the Atlantic waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 20 miles (30 km) to the
north and east of the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) primarily to the east of the center.
An elevated weather station on Buck Island just south of St. Thomas
reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust of 111 mph
(178 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure from nearby observations is
997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest
Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are ongoing over portions of the U.S.
Virgin Islands, and are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and the
British Virgin Islands today.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF:   Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

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10 minutes ago, RickyD said:

King

For Ivan we lived in bayminette al. Eye went right over us. Torrential rains, 120+mph winds.  Longest night for me since Frederick in 1979.  Power was out 2weeks and damage was pretty heavy. Lot of roofs effected.  

Yeah Ivan was one of the scarier nights I've had other than the super tornado outbreak in 2011. Here in the mountains with all the upslope enhancement of the tropical bands winds were gusting up to around 70 and ended up with 15+ inches of rain. Deadly debris flows and mudslides all over the place. And Frances, which I believe came from a similar direction as this one did the same thing just weeks earlier. Closest we've ever come here to losing one of our dams, which would be a catastrophe. 

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3 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Hmmmm. Sure makes all the southeast coast talk real dumb. 

Snap346062410.jpg.ac8eec37eb094812152ef826f678e7cd.jpg

Stronger high? Regardless the whole ballgame changes if Monday it goes in s fla.  now what kind of systems are present to guide and where does it go?

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Just now, RickyD said:

Stronger high? Regardless the whole ballgame changes if Monday it goes in s fla.  now what kind of systems are present to guide and where does it go?

A little stronger and aligned a little different. It would still end up curving north into the weakness over the Ohio Valley after getting in the Gulf  but this further south exit means even more time in Gulf waters which is definitely not a good thing.

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