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Hurricane Dorian (05L)


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Ok, probably my last post for the night. The 11 pm update will probably show a CAT5 hurricane, we shall see. And if you've followed Cranky, then you know we'll have a much better idea in the morning a

My disclaimer... As always, please refer to the latest official forecast from the National Hurricane Center as well as your local NWS forecast offices. 🙂 I'm here to pass along information from a

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1 minute ago, RickyD said:

To be honest I still don’t know hardly to prepare here.  Looks like 6-10 inches of rain maybe but wind wise I haven’t the slightest idea.  I am thinking maybe 50-65 mph but nothing to base that on

You still have plenty of time. The track will narrow down tomorrow.

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Folks on the Florida coast should every concerned about the models showing a slowing of the forward speed as Dorian approaches the coast and moves inland. 

Keep in mind, it's tough to drive a hurricane directly onshore in this westward direction. Frictional components want to push a storm away from the coast, and that may be part of the factor in the slowing of the forward motion. The other piece is that Dorian gets caught in an area where the steering currents are slow, and potentially erratic. Not a good situation for Florida at all. It also makes for a wide spread in ensemble solutions. 

 

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A small eye like that when it meets resistance does not have the ability to remain at the same strength for long correct?  I do not expect it to be that compact when it finally makes landfall but it should pretty quickly lose some of its punch if it moves up inland fla?  Not quite so for a much bigger system?

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Just now, RickyD said:

A small eye like that when it meets resistance does not have the ability to remain at the same strength for long correct?  I do not expect it to be that compact when it finally makes landfall but it should pretty quickly lose some of its punch if it moves up inland fla?  Not quite so for a much bigger system?

Once any hurricane reaches shore, the winds around the eye slow down but the wind field expands, part of Newton's laws known as the conservation of momentum.  The impacts will transition from high winds to heavy rain. 

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Thursday, August 29 - 11 AM Update

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

...DORIAN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 67.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM E OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the northwestern and central Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Dorian.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 67.2 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday.  A west-northwestward
motion is forecast to begin by Friday night and continue into the
weekend.  On this track, Dorian should move over the Atlantic well
east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and on Friday,
approach the northwestern Bahamas Saturday, and move near or over
portions of the northwest Bahamas on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday, and remain
an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 986 mb (29.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into early next week:

The central Bahamas...1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches.
The northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF:  Swells around the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico should gradually diminish today.  Swells are likely to
begin affecting the east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

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Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Thu Aug 29 2019

The small eye of Dorian has appeared intermittently in infrared
satellite imagery this morning.  Recent reports from a NOAA P-3
aircraft indicate that there is now a double eyewall structure,
with a small inner eye only 5 n mi in diameter and a larger 25-n mi
diameter outer eyewall. The minimum pressure has fallen to
around 986 mb.  The concentric eyewall structure is likely why the
aircraft has not found any stronger winds yet in the storm, despite
the decrease in central pressure. The initial intensity remains 75
kt for this advisory.

Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Dorian is moving
northwestward, or 325 degrees at 11 kt.  Dorian is forecast to
continue moving northwestward during the next 24-36 hours between an
upper-level low that will be dropping southwestward across the
Florida Straits and a mid-level ridge to the northeast of the
hurricane.  After that time, a ridge is forecast to build to the
north of Dorian, which should cause the track to bend back toward
the west-northwest. The track guidance becomes more divergent beyond
72 hours, primarily due to model differences in the strength of the
ridge and whether a weakness develops in the ridge late in the
period. The new NHC track forecast is virtually unchanged from the
previous advisory, and lies very close to the multi-model consensus.
It should be noted that the ECMWF, UKMET, and HFIP corrected
consensus models remain south of the official forecast
. The spread
of the deterministic models and the various ensemble guidance is
still considerable at days 4 and 5, and it is too soon to specify
where along the Florida east coast the greatest impacts could
occur.

Environmental conditions consisting of warm waters and low vertical
wind shear along the path of the hurricane should allow for at least
steady intensification during the next 2 to 3 days.  With the small
inner core and favorable conditions, rapid strengthening also
remains a possibility, although not likely in the very short term
given the concentric eyewall structure
.  The updated NHC intensity
forecast calls for Dorian to become a major hurricane on Friday, and
shows a slightly higher peak intensity than the previous forecast.
The official forecast is at the upper end of the guidance, in best
agreement with the HCCA and HWRF models.

Key Messages:

1. The risk of life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force
winds this weekend continues to increase in the northwestern
Bahamas, and hurricane watches could be issued there tonight or
Friday.  Residents should have their hurricane plan in place and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

2. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
along portions of the Florida east coast late this weekend or early
next week, although it is too soon to determine where the highest
storm surge will occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan
in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and
listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of devastating hurricane-force winds along the Florida
east coast and peninsula late this weekend and early next week
continues to increase, although it is too soon to determine where
the strongest winds will occur.

4. Regardless of the exact track of Dorian, heavy rains are expected
to occur over portions of the Bahamas, Florida, and elsewhere in the
southeastern United States this weekend and into the middle of next
week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/1500Z 21.4N  67.2W   75 KT  85 MPH CAT1
 12H  30/0000Z 22.9N  68.1W   85 KT 100 MPH CAT2
 24H  30/1200Z 24.5N  69.6W  100 KT 115 MPH CAT3
 36H  31/0000Z 25.6N  71.4W  105 KT 120 MPH CAT3
 48H  31/1200Z 26.3N  73.4W  110 KT 125 MPH CAT3
 72H  01/1200Z 27.0N  76.9W  115 KT 130 MPH CAT4
 96H  02/1200Z 27.5N  79.8W  115 KT 130 MPH CAT4

120H  03/1200Z 28.1N  81.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND

 

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