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Good morning!

Light rain falling across north Georgia this morning but the heavier area is to our south for a change. 

Snap346063828.thumb.png.35afede618a78028b6ff996911131103.png

 

I know... no one cares about the rain at this point. 🙂

As for Thursday, I think a few of the counties across the top of north Georgia are going to see some of the white stuff, especially across the higher peaks of the mountains. 🙂 The overnight model runs all seem to be in closer agreement as to what may happen, and If it does snow, it certainly won't be much. The temperatures just don't quite get to where they need to be to get any meaningful winter precipitation. 850 mb temps are above freezing part part of the time the models are showing snow, so that's not a good sign for seeing the white stuff falling to the ground. 

We're now within range of some of the higher resolution models such as the NAM 3km, and it's bringing an inch or so to the two top rows of counties. 
NOT A FORECAST

nam-nest-conus-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2221600.thumb.png.5a4513faec029bb64a9d2b1f0261e272.png

 

It never gets cold enough at the surface on the Euro to bring anything meaningful, and even the ensemble is meh. 
NOT A FORECASTecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-total_snow_10to1-2264800.thumb.png.32b5bd7e5903f9cc70ba06e975126aff.png

Here are the temps for Blairsville from the Euro ensembles and you can see that there may only be a very brief window of opportunity.

ecmwf-ensemble-KDZJ-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-1984000.thumb.png.618f77da5a1bab60fd86d2f5a5390e2a.png

Based on what I've seen of the overnight runs, the top two counties have a chance to see some flurries and maybe even some snow that sticks to elevated surfaces, but the temperature profiles just aren't as good as the last system we experienced, so I don't expect too much in the way of snow. NWS Atlanta has the same thoughts.

Quote

In recent model runs, there have been hints of a possible
mix of wintry-type precip for far Northern Georgia from Thursday
morning to Friday morning with residual showers. However,
temperatures are expected to be above thresholds for frozen
precipitation to make it to the ground at this time; this occurs
even in model runs producing frozen precip with vertical profiles
that would suggest melting. For now the only expectation for
wintry precip will be for the highest elevations in the mountains
on late Thursday night but conditions will need to be monitored
going forward.

 

As for today...

image4.png.23061f9bba1eef5efefd4b216efa99d4.png

 

Rainfall amounts through 7 PM Thursday look like this. 

wpc-georgia-total_precip_inch-2243200.thumb.png.cd45d885bd6fa290cbaac856bff27dcd.png

 

Sorry I don't have news of a big snowstorm, just tryin' to keep it real.  I love snow as much as the next person, but unfortunately, me wishing for it won't make it happen. We'll keep watching it for any changes in terms of profile temperatures as we get closer, as those are the hangups right now. As always, check back for the latest updates! 

I hope everyone has a great Tuesday! Stay dry! 🙂

ffc-18.png.c76bffcb93c85d398afa1edffe3a4434.pngmrx-18.png.7eda8dcd2a3306793eddbc55c3707931.pngbmx-18.png.566ea1f0c591de1acf8a8b09e7a745fc.png

 

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Good morning! Light rain falling across north Georgia this morning but the heavier area is to our south for a change.    I know... no one cares about the rain at this point. 🙂

So I'm not saying this is significant but it is at least interesting. A meteorologist who posts on AmWx has been tracking model performance on SE winter storms when they are split, and this is the res

GDOT must be feeling some kinda way. I spotted a brine truck headed down 985 south from Gainesville. 

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Just now, rwarren5 said:

GDOT must be feeling some kinda way. I spotted a brine truck headed down 985 south from Gainesville. 44D96025-5AF8-487A-B601-43B82B2D7038.thumb.jpeg.711011c657f4c1fe8efffaa2cbdc8bd7.jpeg

I could see some freezing from runoff etc after the cold arrives, especially bridges and overpasses and/or the higher elevations of the mountains.  I guess we'll see! 🙂 Thanks for sharing this!

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33 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Buddy of mine from Ringgold just shared channel 3 (Chattanooga) snow accumulations  
High end

2.6 Lafayette 

1.6 Calhoun 

2.2 Dalto

2Chatsworth

3Murphy

 

We'll see how those pan out for them! If the NAM is correct, they might be correct too!

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7 minutes ago, Preston said:

NAM 3K is still holding out some hope for the mountains and northern counties. From looking at soundings, it is flirting with a warm nose though. 

DON'T TAKE THIS AS A FORECAST

 

NAM3K 2-18-20.png

Yeah NAM is getting really close to fringing us out due to upper level warm nose. But at the same time, it is likely over amped and thus too strong with the warm nose. 

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It's odd that Cantore says that about the HP placement when that's actually prime climo placement for non-CAD storms. 

I think the reason for borderline thermals is more likely due to more lackluster source cold than usual because of the vortex being so locked up. A nearly 1050 HP over the plains should be plenty most of the time. 

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7 minutes ago, Preston said:

NAM 3K is still holding out some hope for the mountains and northern counties. From looking at soundings, it is flirting with a warm nose though. 

DON'T TAKE THIS AS A FORECAST

 

NAM3K 2-18-20.png

 

Yes, the 12z NAM is all the way on board.

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1 minute ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

It's odd that Cantore says that about the HP placement when that's actually prime climo placement for non-CAD storms. 

I think the reason for borderline thermals is more likely due to more lackluster source cold than usual because of the vortex being so locked up. A nearly 1050 HP over the plains should be plenty most of the time. 

A 1050 high in that location ought to bring REAL cold here. 

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8 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Yeah NAM is getting really close to fringing us out due to upper level warm nose. But at the same time, it is likely over amped and thus too strong with the warm nose. 

And that warm nose is why the NAM is seeing more sleet and freezing rain which it didn't have before.

nam-nest-conus-atlanta-frzr_total-2243200.thumb.png.86685e922ce68286ad27c23e027f6f62.pngnam-nest-conus-atlanta-sleet_total-2243200.thumb.png.076250f93f7c1af9a29e6c9c7037ed76.png

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OK, here's the 12z GFS at 1 PM Thursday. 

The snow map first... of course.
NOT A FORECAST
gfs-deterministic-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2372800.thumb.png.f7a2f25d9f32f89b829d552325aabd55.png

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-instant_ptype_3hr-2221600.thumb.png.87069ed0621c9f9ddda173a088628b3e.png

 

At the onset, temps at the surface are slightly above freezing with no help from the dewpoints.
gfs-deterministic-atlanta-t2m_f-2221600.thumb.png.93d4733460f15b266647b8fe85ef2b3d.png

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-dew2m_f-2221600.thumb.png.018324916915c566281231af56fd0a3e.png

As we go up, 925 mb temps would mean snow would melt before reaching the ground. 
gfs-deterministic-atlanta-t925-2221600.thumb.png.921739bdff79076a0e664166cbb70bc0.png

 

As we go to 850 mb, most of north Georgia is above freezing, and those areas that are freezing or below, are not really cold enough to make snow except maybe in the far northwestern counties. 

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-t850-2221600.thumb.png.cb8f44ce3d26bf72f181959c5dcc5219.png

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4 minutes ago, Preston said:

Some other 48 hour short range guidance is beginning to come in pretty aggressive (relatively speaking) as well for the NE Georgia Mountains. 

GSP

Quote

For the rest of the forecast period, all eyes and interests remain
on the potential for snow across the area Thursday and Thursday
night. The general consensus of the latest model guidance continues
to place the recently passed cold front well south of the area, with
cyclogenesis progged to develop somewhere along this feature just
off the Carolina/GA coast. However, in regards to available moisture
and supportive upper dynamics, guidance just isn't in agreement.

This has been a trend for the past few days, with models coming in
wetter one run, then drier the next. With this latest run, the 00Z
ECMWF comes in slightly drier than before. With that said,
collaborating with neighbors, have kept with the bulk of the
moisture coming in Thursday afternoon into Thursday night (at or
less than a quarter of an inch QPF), as colder temperatures
infiltrate in. However, per latest guidance and fcst soundings,
anticipate precipitation to begin as early as Thursday morning
across the southern mountains, where a rain, snow, rain/snow mix is
expected at the onset of precip. As the precipitation expands
northeastward into the area, areas along and south of the I-85
corridor look to remain warm enough for all rain through the
afternoon and evening hours, as max temperatures climb into the
lower 40s. While areas over the NW Piedmont could see a few
snowflakes mixed in. A transition to a rain/snow mix is expected
into Thursday night as any lingering precipitation tapers off and
temperatures drop.
Given the warmer temperatures during the day, do
not anticipate any travel concerns at this time across the Upstate
and NW Piedmont. As for the mountains, max temperatures on Thursday
will struggle to warm as much as the Upstate and NW Piedmont, with
many areas progged to remain around freezing. Thus, snow
accumulations will be possible, mainly a dusting to below an inch in
some locations, with up to 2 inches possible across the higher
elevations. With this said, any slight changes in the coming model
runs will easily change the outcome of this event. Thus, best to
keep close attention as we draw closer in time.

 

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