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So I'm not saying this is significant but it is at least interesting. A meteorologist who posts on AmWx has been tracking model performance on SE winter storms when they are split, and this is the results he's got. 1855600784_imageproxy(1).gif.fc1ed8815b86b8a06bfc21f067b7805d.gif

This only goes back to December 2016 so not a significant sample size, but interesting nonetheless. 

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Good morning! Light rain falling across north Georgia this morning but the heavier area is to our south for a change.    I know... no one cares about the rain at this point. 🙂

So I'm not saying this is significant but it is at least interesting. A meteorologist who posts on AmWx has been tracking model performance on SE winter storms when they are split, and this is the res

GDOT must be feeling some kinda way. I spotted a brine truck headed down 985 south from Gainesville. 

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3 minutes ago, Shannon said:

I know all the talk is about Thursday but how about all the training of these storms incoming 

mcd0053.gif.0a40f40cb094ab2d9527b905c5343c50.gif

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0053
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
429 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

Areas affected...Portions of MS/AL/GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 182128Z - 190300Z

Summary...
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing hourly totals
in excess of 1" through early evening across portions of
Mississippi, Alabama, and western/north-central Georgia. This
rainfall will be falling on top of saturated soils and is likely
to lead to instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...
Surface analysis as of 21Z showed an area of low
pressure across far southeast AR with a slow moving frontal
boundary dropping through portions of MS and far northern AL.
Aloft, a positively tilted trough and southwesterly flow is
feeding a large fetch of subtropical moisture into the region
where the most recent blended TPW product shows values creeping up
to around 1.5" across the outlook region, which is 2 to 3 standard
deviations above the climatological normal. The latest SPC
mesoanalysis showed SBCAPE increasing along/south of a warm front
that is west to east across north-central MS/AL. Upwards of 1000
J/kg exist in the warm sector.

Since mid morning, locally heavy showers and thunderstorms have
trained in a southwest to northeast line, producing hourly totals
up to 1" at times and totals 2 to locally 3" in places in MS. As a
result, the latest MRMS FLASH data shows a large swath of 100-400
percent areas for QPE to FFG ratio.

As the area of low pressure gradually moves to the northeast,
warm/moist air will remain ahead of the boundary and within the
large scale forcing for ascent and southwesterly flow,
thunderstorms will align in a west to east line. There is decent
consensus in the latest hi-res guidance for 1 to 2" (locally
higher) through 03Z. The 18Z HREF probabilities for 1" in 1-hr
jump to 60-80 percent 23-02Z across portions of MS and central AL
(with a slight signal for 2" in 1-hr).

This rainfall is expected to fall on areas that already have high
soil saturation, 14-day precip anomalies of 200-400 percent, low
FFGs, and ongoing flooding. As a result, the additional rainfall
through this evening is likely to lead to flash flooding.

Taylor

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38 minutes ago, John said:

Has anyone every checked out this site before? It is gives mountain forecasts.

https://www.mountain-forecast.com/peaks/Springer-Mountain/forecasts/1153

Yes, it uses raw GFS data for its forecasts I believe. There is really no human element to it but it is interesting to look at. I live very close to Rabun Bald and glance at it from time to time. 

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1 minute ago, Preston said:

Yes, it uses raw GFS data for its forecasts I believe. There is really no human element to it but it is interesting to look at. I live very close to Rabun Bald and glance at it from time to time. 

I wish they had more mountains. I mean Sawnee Mountain in Georgia is hardly a mountain. 😉 593 meters is the elevation my house is roughly going to be once get moved. They are also mixed up on elevations, they are showing 1946 meters for Sawnee and that is supposed to be feet. 

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3 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

NAM absolutely not backing down and continuing to get better. Other short term guidance continuing to move closer to its solution. It's consistent I'll give it that. 

My thoughts exactly! I think the snowfall totals have to be adjusted because it is not all going to stick and we will definitely deal with some melting but I think the solution it is throwing out across North Georgia has to be taken somewhat seriously with the consistency it has shown. I have been comparing it to previous runs each time I watch it run out and it is hard to find any differences that are of significance in the outcome. 

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I’m already packing my emergency kit to carry to work Thursday. Ever since getting stuck for 11 hours back in snowmageddon I’m extremely leery of scenarios when I’m told “the moisture will be gone by the time the cold gets here.”

The roads may be fine, but better safe than sorry!

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22 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

NAM absolutely not backing down and continuing to get better. Other short term guidance continuing to move closer to its solution. It's consistent I'll give it that. 

Do you look at the HRW? It didn't do bad with our event a couple of weeks ago and it is giving the southern mountains a very good scenario currently. It's available on Pivotal Weather. Earlier start time and I like the trajectory of it for us in Rabun. This run is pretty aggressive though. 

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4 minutes ago, Preston said:

Do you look at the HRW? It didn't do bad with our event a couple of weeks ago and it is giving the southern mountains a very good scenario currently. It's available on Pivotal Weather. Earlier start time and I like the trajectory of it for us in Rabun. This run is pretty aggressive though. 

Just looked at it, it's definitely looking good. SREF made a big jump on the right direction too, not as much but getting close. 

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59 minutes ago, JackFrost said:

I’m already packing my emergency kit to carry to work Thursday. Ever since getting stuck for 11 hours back in snowmageddon I’m extremely leery of scenarios when I’m told “the moisture will be gone by the time the cold gets here.”

The roads may be fine, but better safe than sorry!

That is my motto, too.  Better to have it and not need it, than to need it and not have it.  It's just smart.

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GFS again looks pretty good. Still shows a changeover from rain/mix to all snow sometime between 10 and 1. I'd guess in the 11 o'clock hour for the Northern tier of counties, 12 o'clock hour for the 2nd row. Heavy snow from then through the late afternoon hours before tapering off. Surface may be around 33-35 but it'll still pile up in the yard at least at that temp.

Still some concerns with the mid level warm nose from hi-res modeling causing mixing issues later in the storm also, but I'm not sure we even can accurately forecast its intensity and location. Warm nose impact could end up being more of a now-casting thing. 

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Just to think: a couple weeks ago everyone was ready to stick a fork in winter. Since then we have had a fun little overproducing system come through and now have a chance for more! Now many well known guys (James Spann, Glenn Burns, etc.) are saying winter is far from over! Just goes to show how nuts winter is here in the south.

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Great post by Robert at Wxsouth. Notice that the red bullseye doesn't necessarily mean snow accumulations, he thinks there's a high likelihood of a lot of heavy wet snow at least falling over the northern tier of counties. Some places probably will see some accumulation, but the forecast is almost too close to call on exact amounts because of the gradient between rain and snow being so tight. 

 

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19 minutes ago, Dahlonegadawg said:

Confidence higher for lumpkin?

My confidence is pretty high that you will at the very least see snow falling. Accumulations are very low confidence for basically all of N GA. They are definitely possible, and some will likely see some, but the gradient is so tight it's too close to call with any real confidence. 

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