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Good morning!

The next round of rain is approaching from the west today, and it is dragging colder air behind it.

Snap346063967.thumb.png.84b9b17c72b1a214f6f08a76338b7a72.png

 

The overlap of the precip and colder air means a chance of snow in the mountains this evening.

Quote

Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-
409 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

...Wintry Mix Possible across a Portion of North Georgia Overnight...

Rain will once again overspread the area through the day
today...but gradually diminish overnight. As colder air filters
into north Georgia through this afternoon...a transition to a
mixture of rain and snow is possible after sunset. This mixture
could briefly change to all snow late tonight before ending by
sunrise Thursday.

Accumulations are expected to remain limited...generally a half
inch or less...though amounts up to an inch are possible at the
highest elevations.

 

 

No, it's not much, but when you're below normal (EDIT: ok, SOME of us are below normal. 🙂 Some of us are starving. 🤪for the season, you have to take whatever you can get!

These are the models and what they show

NOT A FORECAST

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2848000.thumb.png.7b7579618e680e589190a8f244f7cf8f.png

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2848000.thumb.png.121c812a3f0f5230651fb6c59c022d81.png

gem-all-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2848000.thumb.png.592436258db0046f5f1eccfba28b330b.png

nam-nest-conus-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2848000.thumb.png.e5aa199c2dfd597339e5681a59c39ffa.png

ncep-wrf-arw-conus-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2848000.thumb.png.b06f233b3530b69dabcbe274760501f4.png

 

And THIS is the "official forecast"

ndfd-conus-atlanta-total_snow_10to1-2848000.thumb.png.0e3557b986fbc8d57bb56d0f35a3605f.png

 

I think people will see a little more than the official forecast, but not much more. 

But that's not all folks! 🙂

Quote

This shortwave should move into the southeast Friday afternoon, bringing in slight
chance of PoPs for north Georgia.  As the shortwave trough digs in
Friday night, a shot of cold air from northwesterly flow in
combination with any lingering moisture will result in a chance of
wintry precipitation across far northern Georgia, especially in the
higher elevations. Light accumulations are expected overnight across
far north Georgia on Friday with the chances for rain/snow tapering
off later in the day Saturday.

 

Those additional snow showers try to bring these accumulations for late Friday into Saturday.

NOT A FORECAST

gem-all-atlanta-snow_48hr-3020800.thumb.png.ead25d842668f92adc7f0622750ff429.png

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-snow_48hr-3020800.thumb.png.a61ea9b7d6af934af9f63bc166e3f573.png

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-snow_48hr-3020800.thumb.png.1c51670435c28f2926b0ad09131442f0.png

 

Everything is light as the shortwave has very little moisture to work with. Temperatures will look similar to this through Saturday evening. 

gfs-deterministic-atlanta-t2m_f-1582675200-1582675200-1583020800-80.thumb.gif.31978058b78dca33a14241d1eaf883ff.gif

 

So I'll be here watching this for you all day, as you know, if any updates are necessary, I'll have them for you here. 

Hope everyone has a great Wednesday!

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bmx-26.png.d2fc105b0a656a186c29f22b5a5e4bb5.png

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The levels above the surface will cool and drop below freezing well before the surface does. Anything that falls after 10 pm should be all snow, but depending on the elevation at your location, it may be a wet one or just rain. At that point in time, the temperatures at the surface will be close to these. Notice that only the higher elevations are below freezing.  Starting at 925 mb (which is around 2500 feet) and going up is below freezing. These are from the Euro so not a forecast, just one example about what we're dealing with. 

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-t2m_f-2772400.thumb.png.82c72f5c3442f7e4d76b906b43438345.png

 

Also keep in mind, at that same point in time, the dewpoint depressions look like this. The higher the number the drier the air. In order to see much snow falling at the surface, those numbers need to drop closer to zero. The snow will evaporate as it falls until the atmosphere moistens up, in other words, some of the snow is sacrificed to moisten the air and drop the temp. 🙂 So again, those areas in the mountains are in better shape than everyone else as their numbers are pretty much where they need to be. 

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-dpt_dep-2772400.thumb.png.20fd4c44ee91ff4643f2b151834023ab.png

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Fun in the Smokies!

Quote

Cocke Smoky Mountains - Blount Smoky Mountains - Sevier Smoky Mountains -
Including the cities of Hartford, Cades Cove, Elkmont, and Gatlinburg

1037 AM EST Wed Feb 26 2020

  • WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY...

* WHAT...
Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8
inches, mainly at elevations above 2500 feet
, with locally
higher amounts possible over the highest elevations. Winds
gusting as high as 35 mph at times.

* WHERE...
Cocke Smoky Mountains, Blount Smoky Mountains and
Sevier Smoky Mountains Counties.

* WHEN...
From 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday.

* IMPACTS...
Travel may become difficult due to snow covered roads
and reduced visibility especially over the higher elevations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
Wind chill values will dip to between 0 and
10 degrees above at times tonight.

 

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30 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

Not seeing any being reported right now. Except here

 

We are getting some light upslope flurries right now in Sky Valley above 3,000'. I drove through a heavier little burst on my way in to the house about an hour ago but unless the wind picks up to get some forcing going, we won't have much. We usually don't get in on the upslope action very much but when conditions are right like they are tonight, the Highlands Plateau from Sky Valley to Highlands can get some surprise snow out of a really moist Northwest Flow. The Highlands webcam was picking up a good burst earlier and it looked like the ground was turning white. 

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