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Good morning!

This morning we have an area of low pressure over MO moving northeast, and that low will be the instigator of thunderstorm activity later today, particularly over TN. It's not a super strong system and it has very little moisture to work with. The system will be pushing some thunderstorms through during the late afternoon and early evening hours, and for the most part, the rain should be out of here by 8 PM. 


Here is the Storm Prediction Center's Day 1 Outlook


   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2020

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z


   Scattered, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon across portions of the Tennessee Valley into the southern Appalachians. A few strong storms may also develop across south Florida.

   ...TN Valley/Southern Appalachians...

   Sharp mid-level speed max is forecast to eject across AR into northern AL by 26/00z. This feature is associated with a pronounced short-wave trough that should encourage strong-severe convection across the TN Valley during the afternoon. Latest model guidance continues to suggest a strongly diffluent high-level flow regime will develop across the TN Valley ahead of the short wave and a weak surface low is expected to track from the Boot Heel of MO toward central KY during the afternoon. Very cold mid-level temperatures will spread east, along/north of the cyclonic jet such that steep lapse rates will be common, especially as some boundary-layer warming is anticipated immediately ahead of the Pacific front. While moisture is seasonally low across the Gulf States into the TN Valley, 50's surface dew points should yield modest SBCAPE north of the jet where 500mb temperatures are forecast to be as cool as -18C at peak heating. Forecast soundings suggest surface parcels will reach convective temperature by 17-18z and isolated thunderstorms should initiate within exit region of aforementioned jet. Shear profiles favor supercells and hail may be the greatest threat with this activity; although, low-level shear appears adequate for some tornado potential. Robust convection should spread toward the southern Appalachians by evening where it will encounter a wedge front anchored east of the mountains. Some erosion of the cool boundary layer will be noted across SC into extreme western NC. For this reason have adjusted severe probabilities to account for destabilization in this region. Otherwise, air mass will struggle to recover across the southern Middle Atlantic during the overnight hours. Even so, sustained warm advection does warrant some threat for a few strong storms late.






And more details closer to home


While the track of this system will focus the highest convective coverage to the north of the area, the threat for organized convection will exist, particularly across far north Georgia this afternoon and early evening. While relatively limited moisture return will be the limiting factor, surface CAPE in the neighborhood of 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon will be sufficient for at least scattered convection in north Georgia. Cold mid-level temps will increase the risk for hail with an associated downburst potential. Additionally, an isolated tornado risk cannot be entirely ruled out in far north Georgia given favorable shear profiles. The window for strong to severe thunderstorms should then close fairly rapidly after 00z (8 PM). All this is to say, while widespread severe thunderstorms are not anticipated, the risk for a locally intense thunderstorm or two does exist this afternoon and early evening, particularly in far north Georgia. Outside of the thunderstorm risk, breezy southwest winds are expected given the tightening pressure gradient, though forecast wind speeds and gusts are forecast to remain outside of Wind Advisory criteria.


We are going to be a little cooler than normal after today, but that won't last long. Here are the 10 day temperatures from the Euro. Notice how warm we get later this afternoon and evening.


There is a chance for some severe weather mid-week next week, but right now we don't have enough details or confidence to talk about it. 

If updates are necessary, I will have those for you later today. I don't expect any surprises, just some general thunderstorms later. Do keep in mind you may see some hail, and if you do, snap a picture (with a ruler or some object of known size) of the hail (when it's safe) and post it!

Hope everyone has a great Saturday!





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1 hour ago, Asperman1 said:

So, they aren't expecting any extreme damage here in Georgia, outside of the tornado risk anyways, just some light objects blown around, and maybe some dents in weaker things from the hail?

Pretty much. I'm not sure I'm even seeing much of that right now

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Tornado Watch Number 148
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
610 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Far northern Georgia
  Far southwest North Carolina
  Northwest South Carolina
  Eastern Tennessee

* Effective this Saturday evening from 610 PM until 1000 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

SUMMARY...Multiple, low-topped supercells will continue to pose a
risk for a couple tornadoes and severe hail, before weakening later
this evening.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Crossville
TN to 15 miles northeast of Greenville SC. For a complete depiction
of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS


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