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Good morning!

We are all waking up to mild temperatures across the southeast this morning, and those temperatures will be rising back into the 80's for highs today.

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This mornings low temperatures are running around 10 degrees or so above normal.

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As you can see from the southeast view this morning, the SPC has placed north Georgia in a Marginal Risk for severe weather today with the primary threat being high winds, and this is what NWS Atlanta has to say about it.

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The short term period begins with northwest flow aloft as an elongated cold front located just northwest of the forecast area is expected to sink south through the day. This front, although lacking the deeper moisture expected for more widespread precipitation, is expected to increase chances for showers across far northern Georgia this morning before stalling across northern Georgia and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms along the I-20 corridor in the afternoon and evening hours. With ample instability and good lapse rates, some strong to isolated severe storms will be possible across mainly northern Georgia this afternoon and evening.

The potential for some severe storms may also continue through the overnight hours as some hi-res models are hinting at a more organized complex of storms moving into northwestern Georgia in the late evening hours. This definitely isn't out of the question considering the weak northwest flow aloft and what looks to be a small perturbation moving through the flow. Considering the model disagreement, will continue to monitor this potential through the day today. Regardless, the main hazards with any stronger storms that do occur today will be gusty winds and hail, which aligns well with the Marginal Risk across much of northern Georgia from the SPC (near where the boundary is expected to linger).

 

SPC Severe Wind Probability

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High temperatures today will be following this morning's trend and will be about 6-8 degrees above normal for this time of the year. 

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Highs look like this for today.

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Don't get too use to the warmth just yet, we have a cool down coming! This upcoming weekend will be about 10-20 degrees cooler than last weekend. 

Saturday High and Low Tempsndfd-conus-atlanta-t2m_f_max_last24-8982400.thumb.png.944c62153fccfd7333d1a2227cf0d432.pngndfd-conus-atlanta-t2m_f_min_last24-8982400.thumb.png.3520d6e20afe8ca0882bdfa2376f84f4.png

 

Sunday High and Low Tempsndfd-conus-atlanta-t2m_f_max_last24-9068800.thumb.png.0b5bab502214d489e48b7c2ba7e74f03.png

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As you probably know, there was a MCS headed toward northern GA yesterday and right as it got to the Georgia border... it just vanished.

 

I'll keep an eye on this afternoon's weather to see what may pop up and we may have a similar situation as yesterday. Regardless, today for the most part will be another GREAT day, so try to get out and enjoy it!
Have a great Monday!

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   Mesoscale Discussion 0532
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 PM CDT Mon May 04 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of southeastern MO...far southwestern
   KY...northeastern AR...and western/middle TN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 041902Z - 042100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...
   The severe threat should continue to increase this afternoon into the early evening. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple tornadoes all appear possible. One or more watches may be needed this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...
   The airmass to the south of a weak surface boundary continues to slowly destabilize this afternoon across parts of northeastern AR into western/middle TN. Although low-level flow currently remains rather modest per the KNQA VWP, mid-level westerly flow will continue to strengthen over the next few hours with the approach a low-amplitude shortwave trough from the Plains. It remains unclear whether the ongoing strong to severe convection in north-central AR will strengthen further once it encounters greater instability towards the MS River. If it does, then both a damaging wind and large hail threat would increase. Regardless, the ongoing bowing cluster now moving into central MO will probably continue to pose a damaging wind threat through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening as it develops into southern/southeastern MO. With Severe Thunderstorm Watch 161 scheduled to expire at 20Z, a new watch or watch extension may be needed within the next hour. Finally, low-level south-southwesterly flow is forecast to slowly strengthen through the evening across the Mid-South vicinity. This may support an increased threat for a couple tornadoes, mainly across parts of western/middle TN along the weak surface boundary  where low-level flow will be locally backed to east-southeasterly.

 

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Snap346065161.png.41764f5924ec45fdcf3a8fb29d719c00.png

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 166
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
640 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

  • Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme northern Alabama North Georgia Extreme southwestern North Carolina, much of middle and southeast Tennessee
  • Effective this Monday night from 640 PM until Midnight CDT.
  • Primary threats include... 
    • Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible 
    • Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible
    • A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...
Multiple storm clusters and supercells in western Tennessee will likely undergo some upscale growth through cell mergers/interactions the next few hours, with bow echo development possible.  The initial supercells will pose a threat for large hail, but damaging winds will become the more substantial threat in time.  A tornado or two with embedded  circulations/ mesovortices will also be possible, mainly across middle Tennessee this evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west southwest of Nashville TN to 65 miles east of Chattanooga TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 163...WW 164...WW 165...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29045.

...Thompson
 

 

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29 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

Sorry... just really hate nighttime stuff... 

I doubt it, but any chance of the watch being cancelled early?

Not at this time. It's still truckin'

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23 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

I am starting to get super nervous... any words of advice or help?

Just try to stay calm. This is just going to be a typical strong/severe storm. There will be a lot of lightning and thunder for a while and possibly some strong winds and hail. But the worst will pass by fairly quickly. 

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4 minutes ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Just try to stay calm. This is just going to be a typical strong/severe storm. There will be a lot of lightning and thunder for a while and possibly some strong winds and hail. But the worst will pass by fairly quickly. 

Thank you, do you think there will be a Tornado?

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