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Good morning!

Well.... yesterday turned out to be a pretty miserable day and today won't be much better! The tropical depression has weakened and our flow had turned from the east to the south for today and that means a continued warm moist flow over our area. 




Surface high pressure ridge/wedge has released its grip on North and Central GA allowing southerly flow to set up across the region. This southerly flow will keep pumping moisture in across the region but its coming from the warmer Gulf of Mexico instead of the Atlantic. This warmer gulf moisture and increased temperatures will help to increase instability across the region today as well. Looking for temps today and Friday to creep into the 80's across the CWA. With these temps combined with increased CAPE's, precipitable water values, lapse rates, and shear values... expecting some strong storms today and can not rule out a severe storm or two. The current Marginal Risk area for all of north and central GA from SPC looks good. The better instabilities and moisture moves north of the area Friday but will still see scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms in the southerly flow. Not expecting storms to be as strong Friday as today but the coverage should be similar.



As was mentioned in the discussion, temperatures today will rise into the 80's for many people, with the exceptions being in the higher elevations of the mountains where those folks will see upper 70's. 


Now that I'm in the mountains (or close enough), I've had a chance to better observe how the elevation helps to dictate what the weather is going to do here. We face east and yesterday we had clouds that looked like this. The low clouds started forming about 8-10 miles out and that line stayed in roughly the same place all day long even though the clouds were moving toward us from that same direction. At one point they pushed right up to the house but then retreated. But you can see how it's much lighter beyond that line. Those clouds start forming as the air was lifted and cooled as it flowed up and over the higher elevations. 


In this image you can roughly see where those higher elevations are, I'm the white dot. In this case, you can see how the temperatures are affected by the elevation as well.


Once the rain leaves us on Friday, some very nice weather will replace it and we'll be looking at lower dewpoints to go along with the relatively cool temperatures. 


Strong high pressure will take hold after that. Northwest flow will moderate temperatures to the mid to upper 70's beginning on Sunday and Monday before the temperatures begin to rebound under the ridge as the flow breaks down. Dry conditions are expected to remain in place well into next week. The speed at which the ridge exits the area will ultimately determine the timing of the moisture return but as it stands right now, we should see some very pleasant early summer weather next week.


Here are the expected high temperatures for the next 7 days. 


That's about it for now! I'll keep an eye on the weather today in case there is anything you need to be aware of, but I don't think we'll see much more than some thunderstorms later this afternoon. 
I hope everyone has a wonderful Thursday!




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1 hour ago, Asperman1 said:

Glad to see you back Steve, your new home is near me, maybe I can visit after the virus is done, lol. But seriously, hope you enjoy your new place.

I'll try to win the lottery (only way I could afford to live in Big Canoe which if I recall is a gated community) and move next door so I can have the latest weather info!

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5 hours ago, Tanith said:

I'll try to win the lottery (only way I could afford to live in Big Canoe which if I recall is a gated community) and move next door so I can have the latest weather info!

Yes, it is gated. 🙂 

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I have been watching the GFS for the last week or so. In the long range it has been fairly consistent in something tropical in nature. A couple of runs nothing, but it has been all over the gulf and timing has been all over the place. 

I can’t get the Euro on tropical tidbits past 240hours. 

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