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Good morning!

We're starting off the day just like we did yesterday with clear skies and breezy warm conditions, however, it won't stay like that for long. We have a MCS located over middle Tennessee pushing southeast, and that should impact the north Georgia area later this morning and possibly into the afternoon hours. When we get in a NW flow, this type of system is always a possibility during the summer.

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Cooler temperatures have returned to the area this morning, prompted by the drier air mass and increased radiational cooling. Have even had to make a few adjustments to decrease morning lows by a few degrees given the overnight cooling trends.

Main short term concern today continues to be associated with the northwest flow set up over the region. Models continue to show upper disturbance impacting the area later today. Compared to yesterday's model runs, the latest solutions have quickened the timing, moving convection into the northwest portion of the state by early afternoon instead of late tonight. There remains a good bit of uncertainty with the timing, coverage, and intensity of convection as it impacts the area, with at least one hi-res solution nearly dissipating it entirely as it moves into the state. For now, greatest storm potential looks to generally be 21-06Z, and regardless of organized development, there should still be an isolated severe threat.

At this time, SPC have outlined a good portion of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms, generally north of a line from Columbus to Athens. Given the shear and CAPE environment, the main concerns will be strong gusty winds and hail.

 

Here are the SPC risk areas for today.

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Convective outflow from thunderstorm activity prior to the period will lead to some uncertainty regarding the quality of the airmass across parts of the OH Valley ahead of the mid-level disturbance.  Nonetheless, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop by early afternoon and gradually spread east/downstream across parts of the central-southern Appalachians during the afternoon/early evening.  Moderate destabilization/deep-layer shear will likely result in organized storm structures with isolated damaging gusts/marginally severe hail the primary hazard accompanying the strong multicells/marginal supercells.  It is possible a portion of this region may require a probability upgrade in later outlooks if confidence increases for a concentrated area of storms/wind damage potential.

 

I'll be watching this for you throughout the morning and keep you updated for any developments as this complex approaches. There is some uncertainty so the confidence is not the greatest that it will even make it here, we'll see.

Otherwise, hot temperatures will be the main story, especially Tuesday through Friday. 

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With high temperatures forecast well into the 90's for much of the area away from the mountains, Heat Indices of 100 to 105 can be expected for
much of the area, especially Wednesday and beyond.

 

Oh yea. 🥵

The hottest day looks to be Thursday, but Wednesday and Friday aren't far behind.
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Stay cool and hope the rain arrives before drying out!

Have a great Sunday!

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I wouldn't mind enduring a little thunder and wind if the rain will cool us off a bit. Friday it got all scary-looking and thundery here, it thundered twice, there was a handful of big fat raindrops, and that's all she wrote. I don't like being teased.  😉

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