Jump to content
  • Forum Image

Recommended Posts

Good morning!

 

 

 

Quote

Today through Friday

The models are rather consistent bringing the remnants of Beta into AL late today/early tonight and into the TN valley overnight before dissipating on Friday. The movement of Beta should be steady to the NE as it rides along an upper level trough.

The first concern we are monitoring is heavy rainfall potential over N GA and especially the mountain counties where 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected with locally higher amounts. I do not have enough confidence for a Flash Flood watch at this time but the far northern counties will be closely watched for any flash flood or river flood potential. The heaviest rainfall is expected later today and tonight.

Another concern is severe weather potential over the far SW CWA from about Troup county down to Macon and Sumter counties where a nose of
increased instability could get into along with some increased low level wind shear. This could be enough to produce an isolated severe thunderstorm
that could produce damaging winds or even a tornado, most likely this afternoon.

Otherwise, rain chances increasing today favoring the north and west CWA with the highest pops. Overall rain chances will generally diminish from
the SW tonight as the remnants of Beta continues on a NE track.

The concern for Friday will be the chance for severe thunderstorms over portions of E and central GA. SPC has a marginal risk area due to the potential for increased instability and some wind shear associated with an upper level short wave.

Forecast high temperatures are running mostly below normal across the area today and within a few degrees of normal for Friday. Forecast low temperatures are running above normal for tonight.

Overnight confidence is medium to high.

 

Both the Euro and GFS are bringing a trough to the eastern US, with the Euro just a tad stronger. This is what we'd like to see during winter... 😉 You can see I'm planning ahead. 🥶⛷️❄️ Keep in mind that these are individual model runs and should not be taken as the forecast gospel. And for that matter, anytime I show "models", just understand they are only forecast tools. OK? 🙂 

We will use the Euro in this example, other models will show different outcomes.
In this 500 mb anomaly animation, you can watch Beta move out of the picture while a deep trough builds to the north. That trough drops south, pinwheels around a stronger lobe to the north, and then eventually a piece breaks off and comes south to park itself over the southeast. 

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-1600905600-1600905600-1601769600-40.thumb.gif.e97887969614bb32e7502c442d54f3a5.gif

 

When that happens, our temperatures drop. This would be the result of what you see in the image above, and these are surface temperature anomalies.

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-t2m_f_anom-1600905600-1600905600-1601769600-20.thumb.gif.1bbf32d9b70a1130435bbf7d134a27e2.gif

 

"If" this all comes to fruition, this is what the 8 am temperatures may look like next Saturday morning. 

ecmwf-deterministic-atlanta-t2m_f-1726400.thumb.png.6a4ec7892aa1e94a7a6883030445bb2a.png

 

Since next Saturday is more than 7 days away, I prefer to look at the ensembles for their guidance. This example is for the official reporting location that is generally the coldest place in the state, Blairsville.

gfs-ensemble-all-KDZJ-daily_tmin_tmax-0905600.thumb.png.b90d3d8ffd7ded9c2b4bbb7f58081c3b.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KDZJ-daily_tmin_tmax_ecmwf-0905600.thumb.png.68b2780eeb12be062d27c3939ef047f5.png

 

So you can start to see the continued step down in the temperatures. 🙂 

Quote

Friday Night through Wednesday

Short wave trough/remnants of Beta moving east of the Appalachians at the start of the period. Have left low pops for a portion of east central Ga Friday night. Saturday looks dry as an upper ridge builds across the state. A short wave trough in the lower MS Valley should bring moisture back into the area with mostly chance pop's for Sunday through Monday. Meanwhile... a front will push into north GA on Monday. ECMWF and GFS in general agreement except ECMWF shows a deeper cut off low moving through the TN Valley for Monday through Tuesday. In general looks like a reinforcing front for Tuesday night with limited moisture at this time. Wednesday looks dry. Expect a cooling trend toward the end of the forecast period.

 

So expect a rainy day and night over much of north Georgia, especially the northwestern portion of the state.

I hope you have a great Thursday.

ffc.png.e4997691d5a40a8fa209bd6c27865b93.png

mrx.thumb.png.1a1399a8592d106982523f01d721cd34.png

bmx.thumb.png.a9bdca5c054c0e00c2a41f0b51e66753.png

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, AmyH said:

It’s been said that we are headed for a La Niña winter, above average temps & below average precip.  Thoughts on this?  

We are headed toward some variation of a La Nina. But like El Nino's, they come in different intensities, and the level of intensity helps to determine the impacts here. A friend of mine did a study some years ago they showed that here in Georgia, if we had a weak Nina, we had good chances for a cold winter, conversely, a strong Nina and we have a warm winter. And obviously many other factors come into play.

Right now, this is the ENSO forecast. These often can be wrong this far out so we'll see how it evolves. I have an entire page devoted to the ENSO data if anyone would like to see view more. 
http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nino_graphs.php

nino34Mon.thumb.gif.91e8f47f86714e0836aa012126430ca9.gif

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

This afternoon 4 PM through 8 AM tomorrow will be the best time for those winds. Probably like we had last event,

11 PM tonight

nam-nest-conus-atlanta-uv925_mslp-1002800.thumb.png.4a60338ad6065c1fecb98a2131b0ad1c.png

I LOVED the breeze last time! Fingers crossed for power lol

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...