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Good morning!

 

 

 

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Today through Sunday

A combination of robust, near-surface-level moisture in the wake of Post-T.C. Beta, dry air in the mid-levels allowing radiational cooling to occur, with a hint of cold air damming from a weak surface low near the Carolina coast has formed a thick, advancing deck of low-level cloud cover and areas of dense fog across the forecast area. With several stations reporting visibilities down to a quarter to a half mile and conditions expected to worsen through sunrise a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued through 10AM for most of North and portions of Central Georgia. This grounded stratus deck
will gradually lift through the morning and is expected to mostly break apart by this afternoon as highs climb to around 80 for most of the forecast area with some mid-80's around the Vidalia area.

As the weak surface low pressure and upper-level trough continue to move into the mid-Atlantic states, drier air will continue to filter into the region with expected PWATs below an inch this afternoon. However, by this evening, return flow will begin to take effect with rising PWATS ahead of weak upper-level trough forming in the Southeastern CONUS. This trough axis is progged to sweep through the forecast area Sunday afternoon with a return of showers and thunderstorms expected from the enhanced lift over the region. Models are still split on how this wave of precip will play out
with higher instability favoring move discreet convection in the northeast forecast area, but better moisture favoring higher coverage but weaker intensity clusters of cells in the southeastern forecast area. Either way, hazard potential is expected to remain low with only general thunderstorms expected at this time with highs in the low 80's.


Sunday Night through Friday

The long term portion begins with decent agreement among the extended guidance in depicting strong shortwave exiting stage right. It will however be forming a weak low off the Georgia coast which will spread moisture back over the eastern sections of the state and requiring pops to remain in. Additional shortwave energy moves in off the Northern Gulf Mon afternoon and enhances precip across south GA per the GFS mainly. For now will use a blend, keeping some pops in for the SE but low chances in acknowledgement of the more subdued ECMWF.

Focus will shift to the west for late Monday into Tuesday as we get a full latitude early fall trough moving toward the local area. This will bring a cold front through the area with an marked increase in pops to mark its passage. Models still showing at least some chance of thunder with this system but most of the precip is in the cooler northerly flow when instability is sharply on the decrease. For continuity sake, will keep thunder mentioned for now but this may need to be looked at closer with subsequent runs.

Closed off bowling ball type upper low will mean a slow clearing for most of the eastern sections and will need to keep some low end pops through Wed. Cooler behind the front with temperatures in the lower 70's and lows in the 50's but reinforcing shot for the end of the week will really bring fall to the area. Highs only in the 60's for a goof portions of North GA and lows in the 40's. Clear and tranquil conditions expected for the remainder of the period.


And speaking of the closed off bowling ball, here's what that 500 mb anomaly looks like. THIS is what we want to see this winter. Big closed upper air lows can make their own cold air in the winter by drawing down much colder air from the upper reaches of the atmosphere. 

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These are the corresponding surface temperature anomalies... we're going to be well below normal for the first week of October. ecmwf-deterministic-se-t2m_f_anom-1601078400-1601078400-1601942400-40.thumb.gif.18b3646f8b5a71f481d4ff7402430540.gif

 

Do you remember what last October was like? We were broiling in the mid to upper 80's with extremely dry conditions.

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Don't want to ever see that again, that totally ruined fall. 

Take a look at the Euro's thoughts on low temps for next Sunday morning.

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Here are two images, one from the GFS and one from the Euro, showing a cross section of the temperatures from the surface to about 200 mb which is getting close to 40,000 feet. You can see the dips in the temperatures next week. The temps are in Celsius so the zero degree line is 32 degrees.

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While we expect some rain between now and next weekend, it won't be a a lot. There is a decent chance of rain in advance of the bowling ball but nothing significant at the moment. This is the expected rainfall through Thursday morning.

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So we'll warm up a little before we cool down, so just a little patience! 🙂

Hope everyone has a great Saturday!

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Gfs is hinting at a tropical system out of the Caribbean.  Pretty nasty at that. It has kept introducing it off and on.  With the big cool down and the movements of overall circulation what are you thoughts here?

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46 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Gfs is hinting at a tropical system out of the Caribbean.  Pretty nasty at that. It has kept introducing it off and on.  With the big cool down and the movements of overall circulation what are you thoughts here?

Not sure it will make it here right now.

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6 hours ago, RickyD said:

Gfs is hinting at a tropical system out of the Caribbean.  Pretty nasty at that. It has kept introducing it off and on.  With the big cool down and the movements of overall circulation what are you thoughts here?

We need to get out of Phase 5 MJO first.

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