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Good morning!

Have you had enough of the rain? I stayed in the clouds the entire day yesterday, so I never really saw anything. I'll go out in a minute to see exactly how much rain I got, but my station says 2.39". Here are some preliminary totals.

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The image below is the radar estimated rainfall, but this will be revised with actual measured totals later. Atlanta set a new record for October 10th.

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
0419 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2020

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT ATLANTA...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 4.55 WAS SET AT ATLANTA YESTERDAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 3.42 SET IN 2018.

 

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In the upper levels of the atmosphere Delta has all but disappeared. On the morning map (300 mb isobars/temps/water vapor) you can see a new trough forming over the western US, and that will be our weather maker later this week.

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Here is the 500 mb pattern valid at 2 am this morning when the model initialized. Compare the two images so you can see how the placement of the isobars and anomalies line up.

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Here is a loop of the 500 mb anomalies. Watch how the trough moves to the eastern US and settles in for a while. Let's hope this continues through the winter... this is what we like to see.

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Now we look at the same period, but these are the surface temperature anomalies. Next weekend is going to be awesome!

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The morning discussion...

Quote

Abundant moisture from the remnants of Delta will continue to stream over the southern Appalachians and surrounding areas through the weekend. Short term models have a good handle on the remnants of Delta with satellite and radar loops showing Delta spinning across portion of northern Alabama and short term models show the upper level wave opening through the day as it lifts into the Tennessee valley by this evening and into the Carolinas by tomorrow morning. The surface low also weakens as it shifts over the Carolinas by tomorrow evening. HI-RES models continue to show off and on showers as the weakened rain bands move across the area today. Likely POPs through this afternoon across much of north and portions of Central Georgia will give way to Chance to Slight Chance with much of the rain tapering off shortly after midnight. Additional rainfall totals for today will mainly be in the one-half inch to near an inch in the northeast mountains with locally higher values possible. With these updated rainfall totals will cancel the Flash Flood Watch, although Flash Flood Warnings [see FFWFFC for more information] and an Areal Flood Warning [see FLWFFC for more information] remaining in effect through mid morning. Stayed close to guidance temperatures with near normal high today giving way to above normal lows and afternoon highs tomorrow.

Monday Night through Saturday
Drier air will move into the area with a cold front expected to move across the forecast area on Tuesday. Drier high pressure will settle in behind the front through Thursday, with another cold front approaching from the northwest early Friday. There are some discrepancies noted in the timing and amount of moisture associated with the next system, so have kept POPs mainly across north Georgia and in the low chance category. Guidance temperatures showing warmer than normal temperatures through the work week with a cooling trend by Friday through the weekend. Temperatures are expected to be at least 10 degrees cooler than normal through the weekend.

 

Once we get through today we should have a pleasantly warm and dry week until the Friday cold front passage, and then our temperatures drop about 15 degrees. The GFS ensembles show Blairsville getting close to the freezing mark next weekend, we'll see!

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So more showers throughout the day but it won't be as wet as it was yesterday. Hang in there, drier weather is on the way!
Have a great Sunday!

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While the look of the medium range would seem to suggest that the coldest air will stay in Canada, in truth polar regimes will make inroads against the long-lasting warmth of summer in most locations east of the Continental Divide. The Sonoran heat ridge clamps down over California, and occasionally parcels off into sub-ridging over Texas. Remembering the general weakness over the eastern half of the continent, shortwaves from Alaska will drop over the western subtropical high to carve a stronger cold trough complex  from Ontario and Quebec through the Gulf Coast. It will become harder and harder for temperatures to warm up, especially over the Midwest and Northeast. So much so that by October 20, nocturnal low readings will support frost in much of the Great Lakes and Corn Belt.

The oddity of October weather is that while both coastlines will look to stay warm or even occasionally hot (California will be relentless in that regard), the locations between the Continental Divide and Appalachian Mountains will trend sharply cooler. Most of the forecast guidance shows a full-latitude trough, with air mass origin in Alaska and the Yukon Territory. South-southwest flow aloft will be supportive of taking warm, unstable air up into the Eastern Seaboard, which would interact with cold frontal advances to produce convection and locally heavy rain. Of course, the major question mark is that threat for a tropical system to get pulled up from the Caribbean Sea into the Mid-Atlantic and New England states. The GFS series suggests just such a set-up as we enter the 11 - 15 day time frame.

Larry Cosgrove

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