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Good morning!

Hope yesterday wasn't too much of a wash out for you, we did have some nice breaks in the clouds during the afternoon. Today is going to be pretty much like yesterday with clouds and fog to start the day with maybe a few breaks in the clouds during the afternoon hours. The morning map (temps/water vapor) shows Tropical Storm Zeta way down south and you can see the current forecast track that brings Zeta our way.  Bitterly cold air with snow/ice/sleet are falling across the central part of the country, and that cold air and Zeta are going to battle it out over the south east in 2-3 days.

Snap346066334.thumb.jpg.f6465b393bf3406f79bcfca080683665.jpg

 

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Today through Tuesday

Gloomy short term period expected as wedge of high pressure remains over the southern Appalachians. Although precip chances are limited, have introduced slight chance pops over portions of north and west Georgia given highly aligned model solutions showing weak upglide could produce light precip. For now, however, expect the majority of the CAD impact to be persistent stratus deck. Could see some scattering this afternoon, but expect any late-day improvements to degrade again late tonight.

Cloud cover will limit diurnal temperature range, with morning lows in the 60's and afternoon highs in the 70's to near 80. These temperatures are running 2 to 5 degrees above normal for highs, and 10 to 15 degrees above normal for lows.

 

Tuesday Night through Sunday
Long term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a strong upper level low pressure and the remnants of Zeta.

The GFS and ECMWF have come into much better agreement with the timing and strength of the upper low that is progged to move through the southeast states during the mid to late part of the week. Both models have the low starting to eject out of the desert SW on Tuesday and then continuing east across the Gulf States through Friday. The upper low with a longwave trough should move through the CWA during the day on Friday. The upper level low associated with Zeta will move onshore and move east ahead of the main upper low and then across the CWA sometime late
Wednesday/early Thursday.

At the surface, a stationary frontal boundary should stretch from the Middle Atlantic states back through eastern Texas late Tuesday into early Wednesday. The official NHC track for Zeta has it making landfall during the day on Wednesday and eventually becoming absorbed into this frontal system. The combined systems move east late Wednesday and finally across the CWA during the day on Thursday. Both the GFS and ECMWF are very similar with the timing of the surface systems also.

High pressure will build back in behind the front/tropical remnant system. The upper flow briefly turns NW, but should return to a more zonal pattern by early next week.

The axis for highest rainfall remains along and north of the Interstate 85 corridor. This seems reasonable. Amounts keep changing from run to run, but widespread 2" to 3" are likely north of I-85 with locally higher amounts possible. The heavy rain axis/total QPF will be heavily dependent upon the track of Zeta's remnants and may shift slightly over the next few runs.

 

Right now, the official WPC rainfall forecast looks like this.

478394542_wpc-atlanta-total_precip_inch-4318400(1).thumb.png.427d20769630ef36661559c186858131.png

 

Again, the rainfall totals will dependent on the eventual track of Zeta, so for that, let's turn to the NHC for their thoughts. 

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

  • NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ZETA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING
  • HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 84.3W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning
westward along the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula to
Dzilam.  The government of Mexico has also issued a Tropical Storm
Warning from south of Tulum to Punta Allen and from west of Dzilam
to Progreso.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

 A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Pinar del Rio Cuba
* South of Tulum to Punta Allen
* West of Dzilam to Progreso


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.7 
North, longitude 84.3 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest 
near 9 mph (15 km/h).  A northwestward motion with an increase in 
forward speed is expected over the day or so, followed by a turn 
toward the north Tuesday night. A faster northward to 
north-northeastward motion is forecast on Wednesday.   On the 
forecast track, the center of Zeta will move near or over the 
northern Yucatan Peninsula later today or tonight, move over the 
southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and approach the northern Gulf 
Coast on Wednesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum 
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast, and Zeta is expected to become a 
hurricane later this morning
.  Additional strengthening is expected 
before Zeta moves over the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA 
reconnaissance aircraft data is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Zeta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 
12 inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Cayman
Islands, and central to western Cuba.

Between Tuesday night and Thursday, storm total rainfall of 2 to 4
inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches is expected across portions
of the central U.S. Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, southern
Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta.
The expected rainfall could lead to flash, urban, and small stream
flooding, along with minor river flooding.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula by late today.  Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning
area in Mexico by late today.  Tropical storm conditions could occur
in the warning area in western Cuba beginning later today.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1-3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Hurricane Warning area near and to the north of where
the center makes landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula.
 

 

085419_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png.721c0647f06071bc076584f763d3e7ae.png

085419_earliest_reasonable_toa_34.png.6acf4268887569f2e44ce0162433ff61.png

 

So for us, the rain will be starting on Wednesday, will be the heaviest on Thursday, and will start to leave on Friday.  Our highs won't change much but our lows will fall by almost 20 degrees once Zeta moves in on Wednesday.

Since I'm a winter weather person... I have to look out west to find the snow now, but I didn't have to look too hard. Here's the last 24 hours of snowfall.

Snap346066335.thumb.jpg.68f2730e353d56eec344745f65f4c64c.jpg

 

Not just snow either, bitterly cold temperatures are running WAY below normal for this time of the year. These should be the 8 am temps.

ecmwf-deterministic-cw-t2m_f-3713600.thumb.png.ea6efd32724048bc9d9a4306a15d9170.png

 

Those temps are these anomalies.

ecmwf-deterministic-cw-t2m_f_anom-3713600.thumb.png.ac485489a6532700b325f2d2f6ab52f6.png

 

So far this fall, the northern hemisphere is running well above normal for snowfall.multisensor_4km_nh_snow_extent_by_year_graph.png.eebe8094b56319c7d75af46a4858fb57.png

 

Even though we'll be cloudy and dreary, it shouldn't turn out too bad today. but later this week will end up being pretty messy. 

Hope everyone has a great Monday!

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3 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

How does the wind gust potential look with Zeta? I know it's not going to be a very strong storm, but the forward speed looks impressive going from landfall to well past us in under 24 hours. 

NAM looks like this right now, but it's at the end of its run. 

nam-nest-conus-atlanta-gust_swath_mph-3951200.thumb.png.1c008532aab89d9f01f97ff67c120df7.png

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