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Good morning!

A little bit of a change this morning compared to yesterday! Much cooler and drier air has moved in to Georgia in the wake of Zeta, and it was carried in by some stiff winds last night. Those northwest winds will remain brisk today as they continue to bring additional cold air to our area. The morning map (500 mb isobars and winds/temps) shows the NW flow from the upper level trough. 

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Today through Saturday

Forecast kicks off with some cold advection stratocumulus across the NW half of the CWA that should have some gradual scattering/clearing from SE to NW after sunrise this morning allowing for mostly clear and benign ridge dominated remainder of the short term
. Enhanced NW gradient winds should lax this afternoon into evening and as the parent surface ridge slides eastward across the Ohio Valley, the lighter fetch should shift out of the NE to east tonight into Saturday. Upper flow transitions to more zonal for Saturday though remains dry with mostly clear conditions.

Temps remain below climo norms in the post cold frontal regime thru period. Highs today and Saturday will be in the low 60's for much of north GA and mainly 50's for the far north mountains. Upper 60's to low 70's are confined to some parts of central GA. Lows tonight will be chilly with low to mid 40's for most of area and even some mid 30's in the far NE mountains.


Saturday Night through Thursday

The feature of interest at the start of the long term period will be a cold front pushing through north and central Georgia on Sunday. Currently have slight chance PoP's across the easternmost portion of the CWA early Sunday morning through the afternoon, as Atlantic moisture could advect inland. Otherwise, the front passage will be dry with just an increase in cloud cover. As the parent low pressure system associated with this front exits across New England, northwest flow will build in aloft and set the stage for a stretch of cool, dry weather next week.

Monday and Tuesday will bring the coolest mornings of the season thus far with widespread lows in the 30's to lower 40's, and lows in the upper 20's in the higher elevations of north Georgia. Winds of 10 to 15 mph on Monday morning will likely prevent any widespread frost, though patchy frost will still be possible, especially in valleys. Winds are forecast to be much lighter on Tuesday morning, so areas of frost will be a possibility across more of north Georgia.

Upper-level ridging and surface high pressure will hold across the Southeast through midweek. By Wednesday evening, the GFS and ECMWF develop a shortwave trough across the Central Plains. Models begin to diverge in terms of the upper-level pattern starting Thursday. The ECMWF suggests a stronger shortwave that becomes cut off from the flow, while the GFS suggests a weaker shortwave and a strengthening ridge across the West. Regardless, north and central Georgia will remain dry through the end of the long term period. After a cooler-than-average start to the period, highs and lows will moderate toward the end of the period.

 

Here's what the lows are expected to look like on Monday and Tuesday. This is the official NWS forecast. Make plans for those pets and sensitive plants.

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The temperature anomalies from the major models look like this. These are 5 day averages so this anomaly goes through next Wednesday.

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Right now there is no rain in the 7 day forecast, so we'll get a change to dry out and clean up. 

I hope everyone enjoys this great start to a fall weekend!

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