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Good morning!

Well... I got up early enough to make the post. 🙂 Luckily, it will be quick since the only thing to really talk about is the cold front that will be passing through today.

The morning map (temps/water vapor/radar) shows a stream of moisture associated with the sub tropical jet racing out ahead of the cold front in a narrow band. Since there is little moisture for the front to interact with, the line of showers is very narrow. As that line approaches our area it is expected to weaken further and may people may miss the rain entirely. At least that's the plan. 🙂

Snap346066530.thumb.jpg.7d7bfb61c84dd21c7606d40fdfd4fa5b.jpg

 

We will have some gusty winds today in advance of the front, and the higher elevations will see the brunt of those winds. nam-nest-conus-atlanta-uv925_mslp-1605420000-1605420000-1605636000-40.thumb.gif.e979fe993d17220fb7387bb2658ff3d5.gif

 

The next three images are those winds at 10 am today. There is going to be a rip roaring 500 mb jet streak passing to our north this morning with winds of 130-150 mph, and some of those winds mix down to the lower levels at a reduced speed. The 3 digit numbers on the map represent decameters, so the 549 in the jet steak is 5490 meters or roughly 18,000 feet, where 500 mb over us is roughly 19,100 feet. Always remember that the height in millibars varies with pressure. 

ecmwf-deterministic-se-z500_speed-5452400.thumb.png.a49b23c2c56ead689b25026cb3a37f2d.png

 

Down at the 850 mb level (~5000 feet) you can see some of those winds propagate downward. 

ecmwf-deterministic-se-z850_speed-5452400.thumb.png.12a3143ca860271247692517114c6d93.png

 

And then finally at 925 mb it looks like this. The 925 mb height over us today will be roughly 2400-2600 feet. The reason I point this out is that 925 mb covers a range of heights that applies to almost everyone in the mountains, and especially everyone here in Big Canoe. With lower pressures, the winds at 925 mb also lower and create more impact. 

ecmwf-deterministic-se-z925_speed-5452400.thumb.png.1451a49d4615f10f0cffbd466e368507.png

 

That's it! We are going to cool down behind the front so it will finally feel more like fall.

Quote

Main feature of the short term is an elongating cold front that will bring chance to likely pops of showers to the CWA into early afternoon, primarily in N GA. Model guidance continues to show a decreasing moisture trend as the front traverses across the CWA so expect any accumulations to be light. Conditions expected to improve moving through Sunday afternoon with NW mid-level winds and a surface high settling in across the area to round out the short term.

Temps should reach the upper 60's and to 70's today about 5-10 degrees above average, before falling overnight tonight. Thanks to this cool new air mass, most locations could dip into the upper 30's to low 40's tonight.

  • Fire Weather...
    • Will need to monitor for any fire danger concerns for Monday given combination of dry fuel moistures and around <25% RH values, particularly for portions of the NE GA mountains and South Central GA. Lowered RH values below model guidance given known biases and recent verification trends.

LONG TERM /Monday Night through Saturday

As has been the case the last few nights, the long term portion is just about as tranquil as you can get. We start off with high pressure over the Northern Plains and ridging all the was south into the Mississippi Valley and into the local area. A light northerly drainage flow will allow temps to cool into the upper 30's Tue morning and as high shifts eastward slightly colder for Wednesday morning with sub freezing temps in the NE mountains.

The coolest days will be Wed and Thu with highs struggling to get out of the 50's for North GA and lower 60's to the south. A quick moderating trend after that however will put areas right above climo once again with upper 60's north and mid 70's for portions of Central GA. No precipitation is expected for entire extended period.

 

Hope everyone has a great Sunday! Hope to have some good videos to share tonight! 🙂

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Guest MtnMama

Thank you for the weather posts you provide. Unlike many people, I completely understand that weather forecasts are just predictions based on information available at the time the forecasts are released and that thing invariably can and WILL change. But it’s nice to have someone who concentrates a little more intently about things on “this” side of the mountain. Every time an Atlanta station mentions North Georgia and then talk about Alpharetta, Gainesville or Canton, I just shake my head since I know from almost 50 years of living in TRUE North Georgia that we have entirely different weather patterns and events north of the mountain line in Georgia. At least where I live, I can listen to an Atlanta outlets’ overnight forecast almost anytime of year and subtract roughly a minimum of 10* for our overnight lows...and that’s generally summertime too! 
Anyway, your efforts are noticed and greatly appreciated! 

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5 hours ago, Guest MtnMama said:

Thank you for the weather posts you provide. Unlike many people, I completely understand that weather forecasts are just predictions based on information available at the time the forecasts are released and that thing invariably can and WILL change. But it’s nice to have someone who concentrates a little more intently about things on “this” side of the mountain. Every time an Atlanta station mentions North Georgia and then talk about Alpharetta, Gainesville or Canton, I just shake my head since I know from almost 50 years of living in TRUE North Georgia that we have entirely different weather patterns and events north of the mountain line in Georgia. At least where I live, I can listen to an Atlanta outlets’ overnight forecast almost anytime of year and subtract roughly a minimum of 10* for our overnight lows...and that’s generally summertime too! 
Anyway, your efforts are noticed and greatly appreciated! 

Thank you for that comment!  It's nice to hear from people that read the post, I know they get read but you never really know what people think about them.  While I have always covered the north Georgia area,  I feel like I was too focused on that area (more the metro area)and not enough up here.  I think you have to live here to really understand and appreciate how the weather differs from the areas south of the mountains. The TV stations are focused on the metro area because that's where the bulk of the population lives... it's a small market up here. And honestly, I understand how it is more difficult to forecast the weather for this area compared to areas further south simply because of the orographic features of the mountains.  

Thank you again for taking time to comment, it is very much appreciated. 

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The above average temperatures are really making a difference in our weather. I have always scoffed at climate change, but the weather lately makes you scratch your head. 
I saw where Seattle NWS  had issued more Tornado watches in 2020 than Nws in Wichita. The last 2-3 years the chase zone has not been in the mid west but the south.

But even there, the cold is lacking so far behind that the usual storm November fronts are zilch. The N East of all places has been more active than the south.  Wow!

Weird weather and it is best seen in the tropics. We may continue we’ll into December in the Caribbean 

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On 11/17/2020 at 8:30 AM, RickyD said:

The above average temperatures are really making a difference in our weather. I have always scoffed at climate change, but the weather lately makes you scratch your head. 
I saw where Seattle NWS  had issued more Tornado watches in 2020 than Nws in Wichita. The last 2-3 years the chase zone has not been in the mid west but the south.

But even there, the cold is lacking so far behind that the usual storm November fronts are zilch. The N East of all places has been more active than the south.  Wow!

Weird weather and it is best seen in the tropics. We may continue we’ll into December in the Caribbean 

The earth has certainly warmed, no question. 

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