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Good morning!

It's a little chilly out this morning but not as cold as they thought it would get, I think the winds kept the temperatures from falling as far as expected. But there are places in the mountains that are below freezing this morning, so there is some cold air around. 



Looks like Blairsville went below freezing shortly after midnight and is still below as of 6 am.



I am keeping this short and sweet this morning since nothing has really changed since yesterday. I'll let the NWS do all the talking today, I'll just highlight what I find important.


SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday

Large area of high pressure over the Ohio River Valley continues to provide clear skies and below average temps across the CWA through the period. Winds expected to become more easterly this afternoon as the high pressure pushes eastward. Td (Td is the dewpoint depression, or the difference between the temp  and dewpoint) forecast remains the point of contention for today with model guidance continuing to have a difficult time nailing down low enough RH values. As done previously, went with MAV/MET and blended in CAMs through the afternoon. In addition, went with the MAV for high temps through the period as it seemingly has the best handle on the current air mass. No changes to the Frost/Freeze headline planned at this time.

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday

High pressure will dominate for much of the extended portion of the forecast, but a weak frontal boundary is expected to move through late Sunday/early Monday. There is some potential for a wedge to build in during the middle part of next week.

High pressure aloft and at the surface will be in place during the early part of the weekend. The surface high pressure center will push offshore on Sunday, with the upper ridge breaking down ahead of a frontal boundary. The front is expected to move through late Sunday/early Monday bringing the next best chance for showers, mainly to north Georgia. High pressure builds in behind the weak front. Some indications that a wedge building down the spine of the Appalachians by the middle of next week.

The dynamic energy associated with the front remains weak at this time with the strongest energy well to the north across the Mid Atlantic. With very weak dynamic forcing, still makes sense to keep thunder out of the forecast. The mid levels go zonal early next week, so not expecting unseasonably cold air behind the weak front.


Issued a Fire Danger Statement for today due to MinRH values forecast to fall into the low to mid 20s and 10hr fuels approaching near 7 across the CWA. Winds should primarily be from the NE today at 3-6kts with gusts up to 10 kts possible in N Georgia. Slightly higher winds forecast across central and south Georgia, between 6-10kts, with gusts up to 15kts possible


Prevailing Visual Flight Rule conditions with winds 3-6 kts under clear skies. Winds will shift NE today at most sites between 10-13z then veering more E by 23-01z, remaining between 3-6 kts.


Here in Big Canoe this morning out temperatures looked like this at 6:15 am. Those northerly winds have kept the temperatures up by keeping the air mixed and blended. Had those winds calmed we would have seen the temps they forecasted. 



Not seeing any real wind events for the mountains through at least Monday. There are several waves moving west to east to our north, but nothing strong enough to push this far south yet. Because of that, our weather will be tranquil through Monday thanks to high pressure overhead, and that is easily seen in the 925 mb wind pattern in the Euro loop. The streamlines show you the direction of the wind flow and of course clockwise indicates high pressure. It looks like higher winds will return to our area on Monday and several times next week (assuming the Euro is correct), but that's too far ahead to worry about right now 



Thought I'd share this photo of downtown Gatlinburg last night. 


I hope everyone can get out and take advantage of this really nice weather!

Have a great Wednesday!

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Seeing it here again this morning, the valleys are colder than the higher elevations due to some wind. It doesn't take much.

16 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Had that same wind issue here on Monday night when it dropped to 33 by 10 PM and then the winds picked up and brought it up to near 40 the rest of the night. Last night finally stayed calm with great clear skies, low 26.


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