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Good morning!

I'm getting an early start this morning but I have no idea why. 🙂 Sometimes you just wake up and you can't go back to sleep. so here I am! 

Looking at the morning map (500 mb winds and isobars/temps) we see a flat zonal flow. This pattern is sending warm moist Pacific air instead of cold dry air from the north, and until this changes, our weather stays the same. There is no blocking to disrupt that flow, and without that, cold air stays bottled up in Canada.



I had to do a video today since the gif creator wasn't working on Weatherbell, but this is a loop from the Euro showing the 500 mb pattern and winds.  Notice how we start to transition from the zonal flow to something that is a little more amplified. Those dips in the pattern will bring chances for rain next week and end the pattern we're currently in.




Friday Night through Wednesday

The first part of the extended forecast will be quiet, but unsettled weather is expected to dominate the last half of the forecast period.

High pressure aloft and at the surface will both be pushing offshore on Sunday ahead of a cold front. The frontal boundary is expected to move through on Monday. The upper energy with this boundary remains weak across the southeast US as the main dynamic energy remains well to the north over the Mid Atlantic states.

High pressure briefly builds in for Tuesday with some potential for a wedge setting up. A second frontal boundary looks to move through on Wednesday. This system is expected to have a bit more mid/upper level dynamic support, with a longwave moving through late on Tuesday/early Wednesday. The main upper low does stay north, across the Mid Atlantic, but there is enough energy in the base of the trough to potentially support thunder. Since the potential remains low, will leave out of the forecast for now.

 Those "dips" I was speaking of are the longwave troughs they are speaking of. 

Here in Big Canoe this morning, it was coldest in the valleys again, but pretty cold everywhere. 



It's just weather, still nothing going on right now. You'll know it's time to get excited when I get excited. 🙂 So... with nice weather through Sunday you need to get out and take advantage of it! I'm heading down to another autocross on Saturday, this time with the SCCA. 🙂 Not exactly the mountains but fun anyway!

Hope everyone has a great Thursday!

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