Jump to content
  • Forum Image

Recommended Posts

Good morning!

Another fine fall day yesterday and another one like it today! We are starting off a little warmer this morning, and as of 5:25 am I am 6 degrees warmer than yesterday. Moisture is starting to creep back in to the area and that will raise out temperatures slightly as we head into the weekend.

The morning map (surface winds/850 mb winds/temps/water vapor) shows the moisture returning as the surface high rotates the moisture in off the Atlantic and the Gulf. The brownish tint in the images represents dry air, and that area is continuing to move off to the east. The little arrow is pointing to Big Canoe and you can see the surface winds and direction as well as 850 mb. So very calm conditions to start out the day today. 

Snap346066550.thumb.jpg.da638da5ace899c74fa2f23ed428933f.jpg

Quote

Temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal with highs in the upper 60's to mid 70's and overnight lows in the mid 40's to low 50's.

 

We're starting to see an upcoming shift in this fair weather pattern that we've been locked into, and as we head into next week, we'll see multiple longwave troughs march across the continental US. Some of those will spawn upper level cutoff lows, and at this time of the year, it can potentially mean the possibility of tornadoes, as the south seems to have a bimodal annual distribution, the spring season and the fall/winter season. The second tornado season occurs as we start to see cold arctic/Canadian air clash with the stubborn warm air mass that refuses to let go of its grip on the south at this time of the year.

Quote

Their early winter peak was in November and was dominated by a line supercell convective mode; we calculated 24 November as the peak of late-season tornado observations. Tornadoes generated by quasi-linear convective systems or disorganized systems were not particularly prevalent during either season (Smith et al., 2012).

In other words, during the spring peak, most tornadoes are formed by discreet cells, versus the winter peak where they are formed generally in a line of supercell thunderstorms associated with a front. 

Here are two loops, one from the Euro and one from the GFS and both show the 500 mb anomalies. Notice how we transition from a zonal flow to a more amplified flow as we move through the week. You'll also notice how they drop the "bowling ball" lows in the center of the country and roll them toward the east coast. We'd love to see these in the winter, especially if you like snow, as they are the big winter weather makers.

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-1605830400-1605830400-1606694400-40.thumb.gif.1c313d2b75328d3e9f35dbf79d6b03d3.gif

gfs-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-1605852000-1605852000-1606467600-40.thumb.gif.f24066c994ecf664f70f79172ca320df.gif

 

Wednesday may be the day we see some thunderstorms. Remember those? It's been a long time since we've really had a thunderstorm but they are looking like more of possibility as we approach midweek, and it's something we need to keep an eye on. 

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-kindex-6348800.thumb.png.146e6cfadd0d1703b16fa396d35cb266.png

 

 

Here in Big Canoe today it's relatively mild with the lower elevations having the cooler temps again this morning. No major changes for the weekend and the winds will be relatively calm, so no wind issues. That means it should be a great time to get out and enjoy the fresh air. 

Snap346066551.thumb.jpg.d3ef317ec202f74e7715708a5c60a354.jpg

 

That's it for today!

I don't know how many of you are originally from Atlanta, but does anyone remember the radio station Z93? How about the 5 o'clock whistle? 🙂 
If so... here's a blast from the past. 
www.daculaweather.com/stuff/z93_5_oclock_whistle.mp3

I hope everyone has a great start to the weekend and a fabulous Friday!

 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

I find this very interesting. I've only had my Big Canoe Weather page on Facebook for a few weeks, but I thought I'd look at the demographics this morning, this is what I see. 78% are women. I think for guys, asking about the weather is like asking for directions. 🙂 

 

Snap346066552.thumb.jpg.20b260ed904e8918f4a45f40891dd039.jpg

 

But the other interesting thing is that the numbers are almost identical on my North Georgia Weather Facebook page.

Snap346066553.jpg.b8d0ccc082164d182cb51583c2020d10.jpg

 

Why do you think that is?

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I find this very interesting. I've only had my Big Canoe Weather page on Facebook for a few weeks, but I thought I'd look at the demographics this morning, this is what I see. 78% are women. I think for guys, asking about the weather is like asking for directions. 🙂 

 

Snap346066552.thumb.jpg.20b260ed904e8918f4a45f40891dd039.jpg

 

But the other interesting thing is that the numbers are almost identical on my North Georgia Weather Facebook page.

Snap346066553.jpg.b8d0ccc082164d182cb51583c2020d10.jpg

 

Why do you think that is?

Interesting. I'd say it's definitely not just a random trend with the new page since it's consistent with the other. Hmm... I honestly can't come up with a great reason. I wonder how close that is to the total male/female split for Facebook users in our region? 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I have two question, both require speculation as they are only slightly less than a week away.

1. The storms you mentioned we may get Wednesday, at this moment in time, are they expected to be severe, or just normal?

2. How to preliminary forecasts look for Thanksgiving?

I understand both answers are very likely to change as we get closer, I am just curious about the current predictions.

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Asperman1 said:

I have two question, both require speculation as they are only slightly less than a week away.

1. The storms you mentioned we may get Wednesday, at this moment in time, are they expected to be severe, or just normal?

2. How to preliminary forecasts look for Thanksgiving?

I understand both answers are very likely to change as we get closer, I am just curious about the current predictions.

1. Still too soon to tell. Severe potential is on the table, but for now it's wait and see. Just like with snow, a lot of moving parts and small changes make a big difference. 

2. Mostly dependent on the timing of the Wednesday system I think. The slower it is the more potential for showers to potentially linger into the early part of Thanksgiving day. Again, best approach is probably just a wait and see for a bit. 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Interesting. I'd say it's definitely not just a random trend with the new page since it's consistent with the other. Hmm... I honestly can't come up with a great reason. I wonder how close that is to the total male/female split for Facebook users in our region? 

I really have no clue. Must be those good looks that we project. LMAO!

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Also, this pattern is looking ripe for some fantasy land model snows coming up. Everyone stay leery and try not to get fooled into excitement over it lol. 

I have that image from the 00z GFS. I was going to say something today but thought otherwise. 🙂 

Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, KingOfTheMountains said:

Also, this pattern is looking ripe for some fantasy land model snows coming up. Everyone stay leery and try not to get fooled into excitement over it lol. 

It's still there on the 18z, just all the way out to 384 now. LOL!

Link to post
Share on other sites
58 minutes ago, NorthGeorgiaWX said:

I have that image from the 00z GFS. I was going to say something today but thought otherwise. 🙂 

I've been trying to avoid it all together honestly. I don't trust my own emotions lol. Just watching the way the EPS has been headed the last few days I started thinking, man these models are about to pop something crazy out there in the next couple weeks haha. 

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...