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Good morning!

It's going to be short and sweet this morning, I have another autocross to attend, this time with the SCCA. This will be my last one of the season because it it basically over. One more tomorrow if I wanted to go and then a National Tour event down at South Georgia Motorsports Park in Cecil Ga (bet you'll have to search to see where that place is... 🙂 ) that I won't be going to.

So... the weather. 🙂 We're all gong to have nice weather through Monday with just a few more clouds at night.  This is a mid level high at 850 mb. 

Snap346066554.thumb.jpg.5c63147de4d54108e1e0c9c8f7a88a16.jpg

 

All of our cold air is locked up in Canada right now, and it's going to stay there until we get some amplification in the pattern.

Snap346066555.thumb.jpg.8191d6481ac8dda427f2c1d07f9c36ff.jpg

 

I have a page on my DaculaWeather.com website that displays the weather extremes from around the world. You can make a location selection  from a drop down box, and the page will retrieve the data for the last 24 hours for that area.  http://www.daculaweather.com/4_world_extremes.php I took a snapshot of the page after I selected Canada, and this is what was returned. Each station has a link and you can click on the link for more detailed weather information. 

Snap346066556.thumb.jpg.1366806bb49e7a8cc674b9bd2b19df62.jpg

 

Quote

Sunday Night through Friday

The aforementioned cold front and upper wave axis will quickly traverse the area Sunday night into early Monday, with a diffusing moisture field across the north. Have increased some shower pops to likely and high end chance across the far north given good model consensus but kept it quite confined in areal coverage and quickly scour out by sunrise Monday. Regime transitions to an amplifying upper ridge and cooler/dryer airmass for the first part of the work week. Could see a return of some mid to upper 30s across much of the area for Tuesday morning and while some patchy frost could be possible, based on less agricultural concerns, no frost products are planned in updates until the Spring growing season.

Another more potent upper wave (Euro even has as cutoff low) will approach the eastern CONUS by midweek and while there are some timing/intensity differences in the long range models, the system does look to have more exposure to Gulf moisture advection ahead of the attendant frontal system so should have at least increased chance pops across most of the CWA Wed/Thu. Guidance is more stable on Wed so kept to just showers, but does have an axis of weak instability for Thu so have slight thunder mention. Friday has even more uncertainty with the region open to any weak perturbations in SW flow aloft so kept some lower pops around.

 

As mentioned, Tuesday will be the coolest night with lows that look like this.

ndfd-conus-atlanta-t2m_f_min_last24-6176000.thumb.png.9b8478189d21c9d67d1c32f23ce918c2.png

 

So nothing exciting or non-seasonal going on right now. We are seeing the models  spitting our snow maps that include parts of north Georgia every now and then, especially around the December 4-5, the GFS has had it for 2-3 model runs now. 🙂 Yes, we're coming up on my favorite weather season. I feel like Yukon Cornelious, 

 

I would show you the snow maps, but that would be cruel, so I'll hold off for now. 🙂

Hope everyone has a GREAT Saturday!

Snap346066557.jpg.2334406d82717b77a2484dd017c26d2b.jpg

 

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Well, heard a noise in the front of the car, so decided not to drive it today. I suspect a lose front sway bar mount, but I want it checked out before I thrash it around again.

I started looking again at the period around the 4th and 5th to see what the GFS was seeing to make it think it might snow, and found the culprit. This little bowling ball upper level low is the system that could potentially do it. 

gfs_z500_anom_conus_288.thumb.png.f01c4700173f893cab510d25fdf949d0.png

 

Here's a look at the winds from 850-700 mb and generally when you see a low the far south in the winter, you'd better start paying attention. 

gfs_uv_700_850_conus_288.thumb.png.42950259f4f4384e8a3faf93a31132d0.png

 

The GFS is seeing temps like these for parts of north Georgia, in this case Jasper. 

KJZP_2020112106_daily_t2m.thumb.png.c65281ffa542fb2c801091cfc69d181d.png

 

And the ensembles are eager to show some snow, this is Blairsville. The control run is bullish.

gfs-ensemble-extended-all-KDZJ-indiv_snow_weeklies-5830400.thumb.png.6f706d4ca62427612c1240bb0f3ed03c.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KDZJ-indiv_snow-5916800.thumb.png.e5812fb98db6c49fc911e5b6dce1dcd7.png

ecmwf-weeklies-all-KDZJ-indiv_snow_weeklies-5744000.thumb.png.f5977c34e5c0596fce8f6379d3f27c8f.png

gfs-ensemble-all-KDZJ-indiv_snow-5916800.thumb.png.8b6940089441561f113ae42512342b8d.png

 

So we wait and watch... 🙂

 

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