Monday, October 16

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

Good morning!

Enjoying this fall weather? It's a little cold this morning across north Georgia, where we've seen lows in the upper 30's and low 40's across the area. My low today was 43 degrees, and that is my coldest low temperature since May 1, when I hit 42.8º. Yesterday was my coolest high temperature (59.2º) since April 27 when I reached 55.4º. Today should be colder, so we'll see how that goes.

The same years keep showing up in all the discussions about the upcoming winter, and based on other data and information that is available, it appears to me that we are going to have a cold and stormy winter. We'll have plenty of cold air and a very active southern jet stream, so if you like snow, I think this will be our best chance in many years. Keep in mind, the heart of the coldest and stormiest weather this season will be in January through March, so it will take a little while to arrive. We were brutally warm last January and February, so this should be a flip the other direction. In another post, I'll talk about some of features that we'll be watching for this winter, and how those will impact our weather here across Georgia.

This post from Larry Cosgrove alludes to one of the analog years that we are looking at. 

Quote

I can attest to the idea that constructing a forecast for the second half of autumn and the upcoming winter season is tough. So many variables, so many conflicts, and even more numerical models to confuse the issue.

But I have faced this type of dilemma many times before, and with experience comes recognition of patterns. And an eventual outcome. The lack of snow cover and sea ice is a contributing factor, as well as the fact that the "typical El Nino" split flow is not present. Ignoring the muddle that is the number of indices that many in the weather community say constitute the best, if not only, path for prediction, I can tell you that the fall of 2009 is a loose template for an analog. And that will mean the alternately cool to warm, increasingly stormy last third of October is going to give way to mild and dry weather nationally in the space between Halloween and Thanksgiving.

Use caution when reviewing the CFS and ECMWF weeklies, which seem confused by this solid/progressive flow aloft. Another storm will edge out of the West October 30 - November 1. I do not see any buildup of cAk values in Canada at that time, but accept the American series idea of ridging in Alaska and a cold pool setting up across the Prairie Provinces, Ontario and Quebec. With mostly westerly winds at 500MB, I think a mild, mainly dry regime will set up in the first three weeks of November. I note that the European monthly outlines show a normal to cool USA in the NDJ time frame. But that equation has a very bad warm bias elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere, so I cannot endorse its depictions in North America. Following my own analog sets, I think that colder trends will be slow to encompass locations east of the Rocky Mountains.

But as the holiday season gets started, then we should see changes in West (warm/dry) and Central/East (cooler/wetter).
 
Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on 
Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 12:20 P.M. CT

 

These are the analog years that WeatherBell is looking at:
For the MEI - 1991-92 and 2009-10.
For Nino3.4 - 1957-58, 1965-66, 1982-83, 1991-92, 2009-10, 1965-66, and 1982-83 double-weighted based on the SST forecasts.
For Nino1+2 -2015-16 and 1997-98.

A blend gives us this 500 mb pattern. This is November to March.

And these temperatures.

 

Once the migrating Modeki El Nino is factored in, temperatures look like this.

 

Precipitation anomalies look like this. Notice the positive anomalies over Georgia, and how those sharply go negative over TN and parts of AL. 

 

Imagine if you will.... 🙂
This is the preferred storm track for us in the winter, plus or minus 100 miles. The most favorable track is dependent on how much cold air is in place and how strong the low is. Regardless, the precipitation anomalies pretty much line up with the typical track that the lows would take as they ride along the southern branch of the jet stream. There would be a sharp cutoff in precipitation in the much colder and drier air to the northwest of the low, but that leaves us in the battle ground area for winter precipitation.

 

Does anyone remember the winter of 2009-2010?

 

Looking at the deterministic models for the next 10 days through the 25th), we see that the models are in very good agreement that the southeast will remain below normal for temperatures. 

 

Not only will our temperatures remain below normal, but so will our precipitation totals. So cool and dry will be the normal for the next 10 days.

 

Calendar Year Temperature Details

 

Monthly Summary

 

Seasonal Summary

 

[LoveSnow]

Anybody else having issues where the site gives an error message saying “problem repeatedly occurred?

[TheJohnnyDee]

 

Love to see it close!

 

 

[TheJohnnyDee]

snowy wonder land! To bad its at 6000 feet above.

 

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

2 hours ago, LoveSnow said:

Anybody else having issues where the site gives an error message saying “problem repeatedly occurred?

I wonder it it's just phones? Let me make a ticket and see if they can look at it. 

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

Just tried it with my phone and it works fine.  What kind of phone do you have?

[ChrisL]

3 hours ago, LoveSnow said:

Anybody else having issues where the site gives an error message saying “problem repeatedly occurred?

I had the same error message. It’s an issue in Safari on iPhone, but not an issue with Duck Duck Go app on iPhone. I occasionally get that same error when I try to zoom into a map that’s embedded in the post when using Safari, but this time the post would only load for 15 seconds and then flash the error on Safari, even after refreshing the post. Not an issue on Duck Duck Go.

[RickyD]

Loaded slow but made it this time

i am on iphone14

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

35 minutes ago, RickyD said:

Loaded slow but made it this time

i am on iphone14

It may have been too many Twitter feeds in the right hand column. 

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

3 hours ago, ChrisL said:

I had the same error message. It’s an issue in Safari on iPhone, but not an issue with Duck Duck Go app on iPhone. I occasionally get that same error when I try to zoom into a map that’s embedded in the post when using Safari, but this time the post would only load for 15 seconds and then flash the error on Safari, even after refreshing the post. Not an issue on Duck Duck Go.

I think it was taking too long to load because of the excessive number of Twitter feeds I had in the right hand column. 

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

Hopefully that reducing the number of Twitter feeds it will fix the problem.

[Rioderreiser]

I usually don’t pop back in to the forums until true meteorological winter kicks in, but since my last visit I have moved to Cumming, GA and it’s straight up chilly already! I see signs are possibly pointing to a great winter for snow lovers? I feel like I’ve heard that the last couple years and been let down, but if I’m not wrong we are going into this winter with a different overall weather pattern than the past few years, correct?

[TheJohnnyDee]

That one was off, fixed it ! 😆 🤣 😂 

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

I think that strip will be further south. 

[NorthGeorgiaWX]