Saturday, November 11

NorthGeorgiaWX · November 11, 2023

I ended up with about 0.30" of rain so far, and the light rain and drizzle will continue through the late afternoon. It's going to remain cold with our highs running about 10 degrees below normal.

We will slowly trend warmer as the week progresses, and we're starting to see some healthy signs of additional rainfall during the week. The trough that is currently situated over the western US, will slowly deepen and advance east, while at the same time a cut off surface low starts to develop over the western Gulf. That low will start to pump moisture into Georgia starting late Monday, and by Tuesday rain will start to break out over the southeast.

We will remain pretty cloudy this week.

Precip amounts will be on the increase beginning Tuesday.

WPC rainfall amounts through Friday.

The combination of the forcing from the trough and the surface low will bring numerous showers to north Georgia Tuesday through Thursday. Rainfall totals at the moment may approach 1.00" of rainfall through the period, but rainfall totals will depend on the track and strength of the surface low as it progresses east and north. This still won't be enough rain to increase stream levels or take us out of the drought, but it's a start. El Nino winters are generally wet across the southeast, so the outlook for above normal rainfall will continue to chip away at the dry conditions that are currently in place.

The models are picking up on a very strong upper level low/trough around the 22th through Thanksgiving, and the models also see some light snow associated with this system. Yes, it's very early for snow, but Mother Nature doesn't really care what we think. 🙂 That being said, we're 10 days out, so many things can happen before we get to that time period, so right now it's just a novelty that we need to watch.

The next three images show the upper level low that will impact us around the 21-25th.

GFS temp anomalies on the 23rd. That would be a very cold air mass for November.

Ensembles and snow totals.

NOT A FORECAST - This is the GFS, sometimes referred to as the GuFuS for a reason.

There are strong signs of an impeding Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event over the next month or so, and SSW events can have a dramatic impact on the winter weather across the Northern Hemisphere, bringing intense bouts of cold weather to more southerly latitudes'. Not a SSW to be a benefit for us (meaning a colder winter), they need to happen earlier in the winter, as there is a 2-3 week lag from the time the SSW happens and the impacts are felt at the surface. There are several other weather patterns that make this SSW more probable, so the likelihood of this happening are pretty good.

World Average Temperature and deviation from the 30 year baseline.