Monday, November 13

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

Good evening!

We are going to see some changes in the weather starting tomorrow, but bigger changes come next week. 

We are probably not going to see much if any rain across north Georgia with this first system, as the surface low tracks too far south. This weekend should be fairly mild and dry, but shortly after the start of next week, we may possibly be looking at a chance for some severe weather. A deep trough is going to be swinging across the southeast, and that trough will be pulling in cold air behind it. This will be a fairly strong system, and with it comes a chance for strong to potentially severe thunderstorms. Keep in mind, we are currently in the 2nd tornado season that happens every year during the late fall/early winter months. It's a little early to know how that will ultimately work out, but one thing that does appear to be pretty certain, and that is cold weather will be moving in just in time for Thanksgiving.

Looking at the deterministic models, they are all in agreement about what's coming. The next three images are temperature anomalies at 7 am Thursday the 23rd.

 

The deterministic models have very good agreement with the ensembles. Keep in mind, that since the ensembles are a blend of multiple members, some of those members are warm so these images are blended with cold and warm members, but yet we get these anomalies. These are the temperature anomalies the evening before Thanksgiving at 7 PM

 

There is some good news regarding our drought conditions. We're starting to see a typical El Nino flow setting up across the southeast, and that generally brings increased moisture to our area.

These are ensemble precipitation totals through the start of Thanksgiving.

 

These are the deterministic totals through Thursday the 23rd. 

 

The closer we get to this weekend, the more we'll know about the chance for severe weather, and just how cold it might get for the Thanksgiving holidays.

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

Strong moisture push ahead of the cold front next week, but CAPE values are pretty low. Posssibly a low CAPE severe weather threat.

 

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

CAPE values from the Euro.

 

[RickyD]

Right on time!  It just feels more like Thanksgiving if you have some chilly weather. Having spent many of my Thanksgiving in Lower Alabama ( Baldwin county ) most were either kind of warm and sticky, or wet and miserable… 😆.  The smell of pine knots burning in the fireplaces, Granny’s dressing and the Turkey, and the echo of “ You kids, Stay in or out”

 

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

1 minute ago, RickyD said:

Right on time!  It just feels more like Thanksgiving if you have some chilly weather. Having spent many of my Thanksgiving in Lower Alabama ( Baldwin county ) most were either kind of warm and sticky, or wet and miserable… 😆.  The smell of pine knots burning in the fireplaces, Granny’s dressing and the Turkey, and the echo of “ You kids, Stay in or out”

 

I remember the "stay in or stay out".  🙂

[NorthGeorgiaWX]