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Good morning!

We'll have one nice day of weather before a wedge moves in on Saturday, bringing clouds and cooler weather for all of north Georgia. 

Saturday will be a mixed day across northern part of the state. Those folks in the wedge might only see highs in the upper 40's to low 50's, while those outside of the wedge, including those in the western and northwestern part of north Georgia, may see highs in the upper 50's to low 60's. 

There is a caveat to the forecast for next week. The ensembles are not in really good agreement with the actual forecast from the National Weather Service, nor are they in good agreement with themselves. The daily high/low images that I've shared below, are all from the NDFD (National Digital Forecast Database) and are the actual forecast from the National Weather Service. 

These images are from the ensembles, and notice how the members vary quite a bit. Not a confidence inspiring look.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-t2m_c_anom_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-1799200.thumb.png.a3c50ea69278dc068b8de6f88c681ce6.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-t2m_c_anom_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-1799200.thumb.png.a1aa32b72b1dde13267200c079cefc34.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-se-t2m_c_anom_multimember_panel-1799200.thumb.png.65cbd41fac35521e41916bcb548c5c2c.png

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-se-t2m_c_anom_multimember_panel-1799200.thumb.png.79d85a181c906282490af9ec6c352a0d.png

 

This is the Euro ensemble control run, and the temperature anomalies for 1 pm on Tuesday. All of the other 50 ensemble members are based off of this run. 

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-se-t2m_f_anom-1799200.thumb.png.bb365dacc0a12012e7468abef285d554.png

 

This is the corresponding pressure anomaly. Notice the control run has us under a ridge.

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-se-z500_anom-1799200.thumb.png.75c0f8b5553815534f457f00111543ee.png

 

But the ensemble mean is just the opposite.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-se-z500_anom-1799200.thumb.png.6088d63a00f4ee9fb95825ce7c72ee87.png

 

The images below are the official NWS forecast temperatures from Saturday through Thursday the 30th. If all goes as the forecast shows, the last 7 days of the month will end up below normal.

Saturday 

High temps and anomalies

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_max_last24-0870400.thumb.png.0bac47e51c9e3c841b8ef5aa564fb679.png

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_max_anom_last24-0870400.thumb.png.8887da8ea3c3669550f058fd2d392f12.png

 

Low temps and anomalies

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_min_last24-0870400.thumb.png.b3b473577dfe8b5ce683d0f0bd8528cc.png

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_min_anom_last24-0870400.thumb.png.8f0e89a703cb538bb24fd8f0840828e6.png

 

Sunday

The wedge gets reinforced on Sunday and Sunday night, and some light rain/drizzle could cause a little evaporational cooling that could drop the temperatures a little further. 

High temps and anomalies

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_max_last24-0956800.thumb.png.2d4837bde6d9b606c300f36ac11ec363.png

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_max_anom_last24-0956800.thumb.png.11e265eee2eef41e1ca75098d53f64da.png

 

Low temps and anomalies

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_min_last24-0956800.thumb.png.989bb3d19cf0909893020b9f016bbc88.png

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_min_anom_last24-0956800.thumb.png.745c17701ff2c82f0013c20854a5544b.png

 

Monday

The cold front passes on Monday as the wedge pulls away. Once again, the models tend to erase the wedge too quickly, so the highs to the east may end up being lower than these forecast temps.

High temps and anomalies

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_max_last24-1043200.thumb.png.1bf9a76162df559ccb23f4d106956ee4.png

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_max_anom_last24-1043200.thumb.png.3f658cfb2eefa5ecdb388d244af077d1.png

 

Low temps and anomalies

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_min_last24-1043200.thumb.png.5c3532d6ff99b3b4a62e7c1b32cdf413.png

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_min_anom_last24-1043200.thumb.png.133cd16eb749a6dd7617c1f07b1e7417.png

 

Tuesday

Tuesday through Thursday will be cold, with highs in the 40's and lows in the upper 20's to lower 30's. Most of north Georgia will drop below freezing during the overnight hours.

High temps and anomalies

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_max_last24-1129600.thumb.png.acfb88944f47c39ffe3b196010b7b3c5.png

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_max_anom_last24-1129600.thumb.png.f931b5f7aff1883a147db15ed7a77feb.png

 

Low temps and anomalies

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_min_last24-1129600.thumb.png.cd4fe82bf2a7862fc397fa27e7396dc7.png

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_min_anom_last24-1129600.thumb.png.6bcdcd033e6ea8af7addd41cda1c7da5.png

 

Wednesday

High temps and anomalies

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_max_last24-1216000.thumb.png.202e503eb83e8064fde77b7b2a107460.png

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_max_anom_last24-1216000.thumb.png.b28ceb77d5e34f4d7538bbef55ea21e9.png

 

Low temps and anomalies

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_min_last24-1216000.thumb.png.85d4cf298efd34f637ff492e436557b4.png

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_min_anom_last24-1216000.thumb.png.6b208f92bc71a52d2ef11303181b9051.png

 

Thursday

High temps and anomalies

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_max_last24-1302400.thumb.png.ad9cb9606c9033878e808730d8ea9910.png

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_max_anom_last24-1302400.thumb.png.2c141b1f2c4ceff0faf5657b888da8b8.png

 

Low temps and anomalies

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_min_last24-1302400.thumb.png.a0fa45d93270b401de0b256f5b140887.png

ndfd-atlanta-t2m_f_min_anom_last24-1302400.thumb.png.9678e2f405dc43247f4ea4504eadeef9.png

 

Don't expect a lot of rain between now and the end of the month. At best you may see up to a 1/4 of an inch.

wpc-atlanta-total_precip_inch-1388800.thumb.png.95e985c73db2102ca42281a01e123f44.png

 

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