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Posted
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1055 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the
U.S., Thursday through Thursday night.

...Discussion...
Seasonably high heights associated with general large-scale
mid-level ridging appear likely to prevail across much of the U.S.
and Canada through this period, with the most pronounced mid-level
height anomalies shifting east-southeastward into the Great Lakes
region, in the wake of at least a pair of short wave troughs
progressing off the Atlantic Seaboard.  Within this regime, weak
mid-level troughing is forecast to slowly progress east of the U.S.
Rockies, with an embedded low migrating east-northeast/east of the
southern Rockies through the Texas Panhandle or Texas South Plains
vicinity by 12Z Friday.  

There remains substantive spread among the various model output
concerning the track of the mid-level low, but appreciable surface
cyclogenesis across the southern Great Plains is unlikely with
initially entrenched surface ridging slow to weaken.  Although
models indicate that the more strongly supporting confluent
mid-level flow will begin to shift east of the southern Atlantic
Seaboard by early Thursday, expansive cold surface ridging (centered
over the southern Appalachians) is forecast to generally be
maintained across much of the Southeast and northern Gulf of Mexico
into at least early Friday.

Seasonably high moisture content likely will remain confined along
and south of a remnant baroclinic zone, south of the Florida Straits
into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.  This front (particularly
across portions of the south central Gulf) may become a focus for
increasing thunderstorm development Thursday through Thursday night,
aided by forcing associated with a mid/upper short wave perturbation
emerging from the subtropical eastern Pacific.

Otherwise, modest elevated moisture return, coupled with cooling
further aloft associated with the mid-level low, probably will
support continuing weak thunderstorm development across the southern
Rockies into southern Great Plains vicinity into early Friday.

..Kerr.. 12/13/2023

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