SPC Dec 14, 2023 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2023

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An area-of-interest for at least low probability tornado and
damaging wind potential continues on D4, centered on parts of FL to
the eastern Carolinas.

Overall consensus continues the trend for further cyclogenesis on D4
with potential phasing of three northern and southern stream
impulses into an amplified shortwave trough over the Southeast. This
may further interact with an amplifying shortwave trough digging
from the Canadian Prairies across the Upper Midwest to OH Valley
late D4 to D5. 

The large spread in ensemble and deterministic guidance with cyclone
timing and track from the eastern Gulf to South Atlantic Coast
vicinity on D3, continues into D4-5. Latest trends have been for a
faster and more westward inland track across the East, versus prior
days indicating more of an offshore track. This would seemingly
support a conditionally favorable high-shear/low-CAPE warm sector
shifting from the FL Peninsula across at least the eastern
Carolinas, before the warm sector occludes over land. The timing of
this shift is rather uncertain. Slower, but increasingly minority
guidance suggest some severe threat could linger over the FL
Peninsula early Sunday, before shifting into the Carolinas later
Sunday. Faster guidance suggest the FL threat should become nil
after 12Z Sunday and favor the eastern Carolinas during the first
half of D4. 

...D5-8...
While intense low-level wind fields may linger into early D5/Monday
over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States, faster guidance
trends suggest potential is slim for this to be coincident with
appreciable surface-based instability. Beyond that time frame,
severe potential appears negligible across the CONUS.

Read more

View the full article