SPC MD 2331

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 2331 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS

Mesoscale Discussion 2331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2023

Areas affected...portions of the southern and central Florida
Peninsula and Keys

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 170159Z - 170430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may move ashore
from the Gulf of Mexico over the next several hours. Isolated
tornadoes and damaging gusts are the main threats. The need for a
Tornado Watch issuance depends on how much instability can precede
the approaching line of thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...A surface low continues to deepen across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the FL Peninsula as an upper-level
trough continues to amplify over the MS Valley. A confluence band
preceding the aforementioned surface low is comprised of convection
that has percolated in intensity over the last few hours, and is
poised to move ashore sometime before Midnight EST. Widespread rain
and convection have been overspreading the Peninsula for much of the
day, with 00Z soundings over TBW and MFL depicting low/mid-level
lapse rates barely exceeding 5 C/km. Despite low 70s F dewpoints,
buoyancy has been meager so far, though gradual increases in
instability are possible across southern FL tonight. 

Shear profiles are impressive ahead of the rapidly deepening surface
low, with the same aforementioned observed soundings showing very
large, curved hodographs in the 0-3 km layer. As such, it is not out
of the question for a few damaging gusts or tornadoes to occur if a
persistent updraft can develop and ingest any available
surface-based, unstable parcels. As such, conditions are being
monitored for the need of a Tornado Watch issuance.

..Squitieri/Smith.. 12/17/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   24618209 24878158 25198122 25618137 26378205 27288262
            28458282 29388200 29538127 29238091 28188054 26878006
            25978004 25268010 24788047 24528111 24488169 24618209 

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