SPC MD 43

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 0043 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INTO FAR WEST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO

Mesoscale Discussion 0043
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Areas affected...portions of east-central Arizona into far
west-central New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 111629Z - 112130Z

SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow are possible into the afternoon
hours. Localized instances of 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates may occur
with the heaviest snow bands, which may also be accompanied by
strong wind gusts and reduced visibility. The best chance for higher
snowfall rates and stronger winds gusts will be in higher terrain
areas.

DISCUSSION...A surface cold front is progressing southeast across
portions of the Lower Colorado River Basin this morning, providing
some low-level convergence that is supporting an ongoing band of
snow over central AZ. Deep-layer ascent is expected to increase
further as a 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak overspreads the region,
supporting convective snow bands (given sub-freezing surface
temperatures, steep tropospheric lapse rates, and a near-saturated
700-500 mb layer per 15Z RAP forecast soundings and 16Z
mesoanalysis). As such, 1-2 inch/hr snowfall rates may accompany the
stronger snow bands later this morning into the afternoon hours. The
best chance for heavier snow and strong wind gusts with reduced
visibility will be in the higher terrain areas. Latest HREF guidance
suggests that heavier snow and stronger winds are most likely in the
17-22Z period along the AZ/NM border.

..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   33890810 33460791 33240832 33160868 33210927 33390994
            33721076 34431155 34841165 35081140 34560999 34120860
            33890810 

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