SPC MD 45

[NorthGeorgiaWX]

MD 0045 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA INTO EXTREME NORTHERN KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0045
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Areas affected...portions of central and southeastern Nebraska into
extreme northern Kansas

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 112140Z - 120345Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow should increase into the evening hours, with
1-2 inch/hr rates possible. Heavy snow will be most likely in
central Nebraska over the next couple of hours, becoming
increasingly likely in southeast Nebraska in the 00-03Z period.

DISCUSSION...A pronounced mid-level trough is ejecting into the
Plains states, with a 120+ kt 300 mb jet streak overspreading the
southern Plains. This places the central Plains in the left-exit
region of the upper-jet (per 21Z mesoanalysis), resulting in plenty
of divergence aloft. The low-level mass response has been for the
surface low to intensify across the southern Plains. This supports
an increase in surface-925 mb cold air advection beneath increasing
intense 850-700 mb warm-air advection over central and eastern NE,
where 700 mb frontogenesis is also now underway. Moderate snow has
recently begun to fall in central Nebraska per surface observations,
with snowfall rates expected to only increase with time as dynamic
lift increases and the dendritic growth zone continues to saturate.

Later this afternoon, the anticipated heavier snow bands may produce
snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches/hour, where reduced visibility will
also become a concern. Latest high-resolution model guidance
consensus suggests that the heaviest snow should begin in the next
couple of hours, and peak in intensity somewhere in the 00-03Z
period, especially over southeastern NE.

..Squitieri.. 01/11/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   42230081 42039872 41419693 40749594 40189559 39849594
            39749687 39739796 40089884 40609979 41350089 42230081 

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