Administrators NorthGeorgiaWX Posted January 12 Administrators Share Posted January 12 MD 0046 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHEAST OK...AND MUCH OF AR Mesoscale Discussion 0046 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0828 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024 Areas affected...Northeast TX...southeast OK...and much of AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 120228Z - 120430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an initial round of strong to severe thunderstorms, with the primary risks being large hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage across parts of southeast OK, northeast TX, and much of AR this evening, largely aided by strengthening low-level warm advection evident in regional VWP data and observed 00Z soundings. Per the observed LZK 00Z sounding and RAP forecast soundings, storms evolving over central AR are likely elevated, though 50-60 kt of effective shear and a plume of steep lapse rates overspreading the region are supporting loosely organized storm structures with occasional midlevel rotation. The primary concern with this activity will be sporadic marginally severe hail, though localized clustering could support damaging winds as well. Farther southwest in northeast TX and southeast OK, a broken band of thunderstorms is evolving where low-level convergence is slightly stronger ahead of an evolving surface low in OK. Lower 60s dewpoints are gradually spreading north ahead of these storms (beneath steeper midlevel lapse rates), suggesting that an evolution to surface-based convection is possible. Similarly strong deep-layer shear will favor embedded supercell structures (with an attendant risk of large hail and damaging winds). However, if this activity can root at the surface, large clockwise-curved hodographs with strong streamwise vorticity could conditionally support a tornado or two. Overall, the need for a watch in the short-term is uncertain, though trends are being monitored. A second round of severe storms is expected along the cold front later tonight. ..Weinman/Goss.. 01/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD... LAT...LON 33169558 33739511 34399474 35069465 35529441 35849411 35999344 36049260 35919183 35769133 35509114 34559138 33999171 33669222 33439266 32749456 32769522 32919560 33169558 Read more View the full article Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.